The National Hurricane Center reports that Tropical Storm Erin could reach hurricane status within the next five days.
It’s still too early to predict what impacts, if any, Erin could have on Florida or any other parts of the eastern United States. Current spaghetti models show the storm shifting northward as it slows in the tropical Atlantic basin.
The uncertainty should be a good reminder for Floridians to brush up on their hurricane preparedness plans and make sure their hurricane supplies are topped off.
What are the latest updates on Tropical Storm Erin?
Erin had a relatively uneventful Monday night. Geostationary satellite imagery captured over the past few hours showed no notable developments regarding the storm’s organization. The NHC also saw warmer cloud tops, which indicate weaker thunderstorms.
Microwave scans showed a well-defined banding feature over the southern semicircle of the system, and tropical-force winds were still measured. In other words, Erin has weakened slightly but still remains a tropical storm.
Erin is hauling west at 22 mph, and it’s expected to continue that track over the next few days, thanks, in part, to a strong ridge north of the tropical cyclone producing easterly steering currents.
As the ridge weakens, Erin will start to slow down and shift west-northwest. Models expect the track to gradually shift to a north-northwest path by early next week.
Tropical Storm Erin strength forecast: When will we see Hurricane Erin?
A large plume of Saharan dust just ahead of Tropical Storm Erin dried up a bit of the humidity the storm would be using to fuel development now, but the lull won’t last.
Erin is expected to enter warmer waters that are forecast to have low vertical wind shear over the next several days. The combination will lead to rapid intensification and could result in Erin becoming the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by Thursday and a major hurricane by Sunday morning, according to the NHC.
Quick facts you should know about Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin maintained its strength through Monday night. We could see a lull in development over the next 72 hours before the system moves into warmer waters and faces very low wind shear. Those favorable conditions could lead to a major Hurricane Erin within the next five days, according to the NHC.
Current location: About 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and 1890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Strength: Maximum sustained wind speeds were last measured around 45 mph
Movement: West at 22 mph
Minimum central pressure: 1004 MB, 29.65 inches
Will Tropical Storm Erin hit Florida?
The jury is currently out on whether Florida will see any impacts from Tropical Storm Erin.
It’s still too early to determine if Erin could have any impacts on Florida or any other parts of the eastern United States, according to the NHC. Florida’s Gulf Coast residents are a bit safer, based on current models, but should still monitor the storm as it develops.
If Erin strengthens into a major hurricane and passes within 100 miles east of the U.S., AccuWeather says that it could bring heavy seas and a chance of heavy rain to a portion of Florida’s northeastern coast. Areas including Daytona Beach and Jacksonville would be included.
Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
How likely is a hurricane to make landfall in the US in 2025?
Unsurprisingly, Florida leads the pack in terms of probability, but it’s not the only state with odds that are essentially impossible to avoid. Here’s a look at the probabilities of coastal states from Texas to Maine:
Named storms in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
Here's a list of the four named storms we've had during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest information regarding Tropical Storm Erin.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Tropical Storm Erin could ramp up to major hurricane. Florida impacts:
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