The 2025 college football season is almost here, and while most of the headlines will focus on the Power Four teams, there’s just as much — if not more — betting value lurking in the Group of Five. These leagues are full of overlooked storylines, roster shakeups and soft-market numbers that savvy bettors can exploit before the public catches on.
From fading programs in free fall to backing dark horses with a clear path to conference title games — and even teams with legitimate College Football Playoff dreams — here are the best Group of Five bets to make before the season kicks off.
Group of Five best bets
UAB under 2.5 conference wins (-105)
It already feels like head coach Trent Dilfer has lost the locker room. Replacing UAB legend Bill Clark, who helped resurrect the program and led the Blazers to 21 straight home wins, was always going to be a tough task. But rather than sticking with the successful interim coach who followed Clark, UAB handed the job to Dilfer, and the program has been sliding ever since.
Now entering Year 3, the Blazers rank 105th in returning production and 118th in recruiting. Outside of returning quarterback Jalen Kitna, there’s little reason for optimism. In a conference loaded with veteran rosters, UAB looks firmly stuck in the bottom tier.
Air Force under 6.5 wins (-135 at BetMGM)
Service academies are easy to root for with their throwback style, triple-option offenses, disciplined play and a history of covering spreads. But nostalgia doesn’t win games. This year’s Air Force squad lacks the talent to compete in a loaded Mountain West.
The Falcons are favored in only five games, with toss-ups against San Jose State and UConn. Even in a best-case scenario, reaching seven wins feels like a stretch. Without explosive playmakers, this looks like a five- or six-win team at best.
Akron over 4.5 wins (+135)
Akron has been a punchline for years, but head coach Joe Moorhead is no joke — he’s just been short on talent. That changes this season. With NC State transfer Ben Finley at quarterback, a revamped offensive line and real speed at receiver, the Zips finally have some scoring upside.
The defense is still a mess, but the schedule is soft: Duquesne, Kent State, UAB, UMass, Ball State, Buffalo and Central Michigan are all winnable games. If the offensive line holds up, Akron should hit five wins more often than this price suggests.
UNLV to make the Mountain West title game (+200)
Boise State is the clear favorite (-160 odds) to win the Mountain West, especially after reloading to replace running back Ashton Jeanty. But the real value lies in the race for second, and UNLV is in prime position.
The Rebels project for 8.3 wins in my model, comfortably ahead of San Jose State (7.5) and Fresno State (6.8). They’ll be double-digit favorites in all but two conference games. With a soft schedule and one of the highest net talent grades in the league, UNLV is the smart play to reach the title game.
Boise State to make the College Football Playoff (+175)
What better way to close out the Group of Five than with its crown jewel, Boise State. The Broncos are a legitimate dark horse to crash the playoff conversation.
The offense returns key pieces, but it’s the revamped defense that stands out. Boise State added real talent on that side of the ball, including former four-star recruits Sterling Lane and Jaden Mickey. With a manageable schedule and playmakers on both sides, the Broncos have a clear path to national relevance by season’s end.
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