It’s August, and with the arrival of long-range forecasts from NOAA, the Farmers’ Almanac, and others, skiers speculating about what next winter might bring have plenty of material. But the news isn’t always good.
One YouTube forecaster, Direct Weather, thinks California—home to ski resorts like Mammoth Mountain and Palisades Tahoe—is in for a dry and warm winter season. If the prediction pans out, it would mean fewer powder days than usual for Golden State skiers.
Here’s Direct Weather’s preliminary winter forecast for next ski season. Tap or click below to watch in its entirety. Keep reading for a breakdown.
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Across the Western U.S., Direct Weather forecasts higher-than-usual temperatures. The closer you get to coastal states like California and Oregon, the odds of those higher-than-usual temperatures increase.
Direct Weather attributed this part of the forecast to the current warm waters in the Northern Pacific, which they said can cause warm temperatures on shore.
Direct Weather’s precipitation forecast looks discouraging for California and Southwest skiers, too.
The precipitation map includes a brown blob stretching from California to western Texas, indicating a vast swath where lower-than-usual precipitation is expected. They said they suspect the storm track in this area will be “for the most part shut down, similar to a lot of last winter.”
See below for Direct Weather's snowfall forecast for Winter 25/26:
Together, according to Direct Weather, that could mean less snow across California and the surrounding states.
“I think even if cold air does move in, we’re gonna struggle to get storm systems here,” they said.
The opposite can be said for a friends in the Northeast and Midwest. Similar to the Farmers' Almanac, Direct Weather is predicting above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures for both regions.
The Direct Weather forecast looks similar in some ways to NOAA’s seasonal outlook for December, January, and February, which is leaning towards below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures for much of California.
If you live in California and ski, don’t give up on winter quite yet, though.
Direct Weather’s forecast, similar to NOAA’s seasonal outlook, spans three months and it predicts the likelihood of trends rather than specific weather events, so the odd snowstorm or three—which is all you really need for a few deep powder days—are never out of the question this far in advance.
Related: The Farmers' Almanac Forecasts "Wild Ride" for Winter 25/26
Below Average Snowfall Predicted for California This Winter by Popular YouTube Meteorologist first appeared on Powder on Aug 13, 2025
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