President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday could shape the future of Moscow’s more than three-year war in Ukraine — for better or worse.
Trump has made ending the war a priority focus in his second term, but Putin has been a brick wall, refusing any concessions toward peace and only increasing the severity of attacks on Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not get an invite to the Alaska summit, but he along with European leaders has sought to stiffen Trump’s spine this week, hoping to steer him away from any talk of territorial concessions.
The White House has lowered expectations for a major breakthrough in the summit, which Trump has described as setting the table for a potential second meeting that includes Zelensky.
Still, the world will be watching closely for any signs that a peace deal is possible.
Here are the priorities for Ukraine, the U.S. and Russia:
Zelensky
Watching from the sidelines, Zelensky has the most to lose from Trump and Putin meeting face-to-face.
Trump has swung wildly between anger with the Ukrainian leader, at one point halting U.S. military support and intelligence sharing, to expressing sympathy and even unity over the loss of life and suffering.
Zelensky will be hoping for a chilly meeting in Alaska, said Olga Tokariuk, a fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“The best scenario for Ukraine would be if there is no deal tomorrow, if there is no agreement between Russia and the U.S. on anything,” Tokariuk said.
She added that a decision by Trump to impose more sanctions on Russia, as he has threatened to do if Putin doesn’t move toward a peace deal, would be a major victory for Kyiv.
Zelensky, along with European leaders, held a virtual call with Trump on Thursday to reinforce principles Trump should take with him into the talks: A ceasefire on the current front lines must be the basis for any negotiations; Ukraine must be part of discussions; Ukraine needs security guarantees and to leave the door open for NATO membership; and there must be no recognition of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory, which includes about 20 percent of the country.
Trump has already strayed from those positions, saying Thursday that Putin was unlikely to agree to a ceasefire, but he hoped to make progress on broader peace talks.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that Zelensky understands that territorial concessions may be required to get a durable peace,” said John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.
“Trump’s view is that the durable peace will involve Russian occupation at least de facto, but it should only be de facto — that’s an important distinction of Ukrainian territory,” he continued.
“But for that to happen, we need major concessions from Moscow, and the conversation has to include those concessions.”
Putin has shown little willingness to back off any of his maximalist demands of Ukraine ceding territory, demilitarizing and changing its government, to name a few.
Trump
The best case for Trump — a breakthrough in peace talks — is unlikely, as even he has admitted this week.
The president has previewed that his goal for the summit is to move from this first meeting with Putin to a second meeting, likely to include Zelensky, and possibly the U.S.
“This meeting sets up the second meeting. But there is a 25 percent chance this meeting will not be a successful meeting,” Trump told Brian Kilmeade on his Fox News Radio show Thursday.
Trump is heavily invested in his image as a peacemaker, and getting a good deal for Ukraine would make a compelling addition to his credentials for a Nobel Peace Prize.
However, the president also wants an off-ramp of U.S. involvement in the war, and has taken steps to zero out American financial support for Ukraine.
The shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development ended humanitarian and economic assistance to Kyiv, as Trump continues to send military support to Ukraine from previously appropriated funds.
Trump is not looking to replenish those accounts and has instead focused on getting allied countries to purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine. It’s unclear if Trump will veto an effort in Congress to send about $800 million to Ukraine next year.
The White House this week touted on the social platform X the “worldwide calls for President Trump to receive the Nobel Peace Prize,” along with a photo of Trump speaking behind a podium with a NATO logo.
White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said that was an intentional choice. “His agreement to sell American-made weapons to NATO allies is one way he is working to stop the killing between Russia and Ukraine,” she told The Hill.
Trump said on Thursday he would impose severe consequences on Russia if Putin refused to halt the war following the Alaska summit, but on Friday morning he said that if the summit is not successful, he’ll turn his attention back to the U.S.
Earlier this week, Trump said his goal for the summit is to “feel out” Putin and gauge his seriousness in committing to end the war.
But Trump has also talked about major economic potential for renewed U.S.-Russia ties, raising the possibility that business deals could be used as an incentive for Putin to stop the war.
“They have tremendous potential in Russia to do well,” Trump said Wednesday.
Allies, however, are warning against that type of offer.
“If Trump is a business guy, Putin isn’t. Whatever you give him in trade and investment, he’s happy to take it, but he will not back down an inch,” Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen told The Wall Street Journal.
Putin
Analysts argue Putin has already secured a major victory by having a face-to-face meeting with the U.S. president, on American soil, without having to give up anything or make any commitments.
Putin has succeeded in delaying Trump’s threats of “secondary tariffs,” which were promised for Aug. 8. A Senate Democratic report noted that Trump has imposed no additional U.S. penalties on Russia in the past six months, despite Putin’s intransigence.
And the Kremlin is also dangling the potential for renewed U.S.-Russia business ties.
“It is worth noting that this cooperation holds immense, yet regrettably underutilized, potential,” Yury Ushakov, a top Putin aide, said Thursday.
Analysts say that Putin has not changed his initial aims of wanting to subjugate all of Ukraine and has also always looked beyond the country, framing the “special military operation” as a larger conflict against the democratic West, in particular his criticism that NATO is a threat to Russia’s security.
“The aim is to establish long-term conditions for peace not only between our countries but also in Europe and indeed globally — especially if we proceed to subsequent stages involving agreements on strategic offensive arms control,” Putin said Thursday.
Daniel Fried, distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council and a former U.S. ambassador to Poland, warned that Putin is the master of deflection and would likely try to wave some “shiny” but meaningless offer as a new development or concession.
“I’ve seen this myself,” Fried said. “He might do that to divert the conversation with the objective of deflecting pressure from Trump, which is the best realistic case outcome here.”
But Fried said the U.S. has significant leverage with the threat of sanctions on Russia and its partners, and increased military support for Ukraine in a way that isn’t a burden on U.S. taxpayers.
“If Trump does this, if he tells Putin that he, Donald Trump, and the U.S. are tired of being played, it is possible Putin will recalculate,” Fried continued.
“Putin knows what the deal on the table might look like: a ceasefire in place plus security for Ukraine … that doesn’t give Putin what he wants, which is control over all of Ukraine. But it doesn’t matter what Putin wants. If he can’t get anything more, he may settle for what’s available.”
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
Comments