President Trump’s tariff blasts continue. The White House released its latest list on July 31 and it is clear that no nation is safe — not allies, enemies, neighbors or distant lands. No menacing power escapes the vigilance of the president’s team, ever alert to those “ripping off” the United States of America.
Case in point: Moldova.
Dominating both sides of the Dniester River — well, one side actually — this Eastern European colossus of 2.3 million people (about the size of Houston) could inflict mortal damage on the American economy.
In 2024 alone, the U.S. bought nearly $136 million (with an “m”) worth of goods from the Moldovans, whereas they bought only $51 million from us. With the U.S. economy valued at more than $30 trillion (with a “T”) we could probably only bear such abuse for … well, forever.
In a July 9 letter to Moldovan President Maia Sandu, Trump made clear that America will not be bullied by Moldova any longer. He imposed a tariff of 25 percent on every bottle of wine or fruit juice the Moldovans force us to buy. Calling the deficit with Moldova a “major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!” the president warned of even higher tariffs if Moldova retaliates or tries to send goods into the U.S. through transshipment.
The letter accuses Moldova of taking advantage of us for “many years.”
Tariff rates are one of Trump’s favorite weapons, employed under the dubious premise that the U.S. faces a trade deficit “emergency.” The legality of such action aside — the Supreme Court has yet to rule — the president uses this weapon for a variety of non-economic goals. He has threatened Canada for indicating it might recognize a Palestinian state, and Brazil to try to save former President Jair Bolsonaro from prosecution.
Moldova has committed no such offenses — at least none charged — but Trump wants trade with Moldova and a host of other countries to be based on “reciprocity.” Whatever the precipitating dynamics, punishing Moldova for its involvement in international trade serves no reasonable Western security or broader policy interests. It undermines them.
Sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova has a long history of not being a country. The people of this region, who were unwillingly traded between Romania and Russia for nearly a century, gained independence from a collapsing Soviet Union in 1991.
With a population that is 75 percent Moldovan-Romanian, some within the Russian and Ukrainian minorities feared the country’s absorption into neighboring Romania. During a brief internal war in 1992, Moscow positioned a “peacekeeping force” on the eastern side of Dniester River to guard the self-proclaimed state of Transnistria — which is still there, not recognized even by Russia.
This force is small, locally recruited and considered less than formidable. But it is part of a sustained campaign by Moscow to prevent Moldova from embracing the West. This same motive drove Vladimir Putin to unleash a brutal invasion and occupation of much larger Ukraine. If victorious there, he is unlikely to be more accommodating toward Moldova.
Moldova is the poorest country in Europe, and its elected leaders and population have been seeking stability. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Moldova applied to join the EU. It was quickly granted candidate status, and negotiations for membership began. In 2024, the country reelected pro-EU President Sandu and in a referendum enshrined the country’s “European course” in its constitution — despite massive Russian interference and disinformation.
The EU has not been cowed by Moscow and developed a generous aid and development package. Most Moldovan goods enter the world’s largest trading bloc duty-free, a policy that was further extended to agricultural products last month.
Under President Biden, the U.S. had been similarly supportive, providing more than $400 million in military and humanitarian aid in part to help reduce the country’s dependence on Russian gas. Trump sees no need for aid to Moldova, or indeed for most foreign assistance.
Other moves supporting Trump’s “America First” orientation also penalize Moldova. Eliminating the U.S. Agency for International Development meant the loss of virtually all projects in Moldova — including for democracy promotion and economic and energy development.
At the same time, cutting resources for election monitoring and an independent press leaves the field open for Russian interference. Such indifference, along with Trump’s shifting attitude toward Ukraine and transactional foreign policy, leaves Moldova exposed. A study by the Stimson Center concluded, “With a White House that seems increasingly eager to align its perspectives with Moscow at the expense of traditional allies, its willingness to support Moldova’s democratic transformation in the face of Russian opposition is now uncertain.”
Neighboring Romania, a member of both the EU and NATO, has a huge stake in the fate of Moldova. An intimidated or occupied satellite country — a second Belarus — on the Alliance’s more than 400-mile border would dramatically change the strategic equation. This should get Washington’s attention — at least of those willing to honor the American commitment to NATO.
Preserving an independent and economically healthy Moldova thus serves European and American interests. Increasing the cost of doing business with the U.S. and damaging democratic efforts there does not.
Supporting Moldova costs the U.S. very little. Excusing a tiny trade deficit to a strategically important democracy does not make Americans suckers. Helping Moldova does not require a military commitment. The country has been cooperating with NATO but is constitutionally neutral.
Rather than punishing the country, the U.S. could and should offer support. This could be based on a view of the geopolitical map — or, even better, from an appreciation of a resilient people’s desire for democratic choice.
Ronald H. Linden is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, where he directed the Center for European Studies and the Center for Russian and East European Studies.
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