Editor’s note: The video at the top of this story is from January 2025.
As summer winds down, predictions are already rolling in on how cold and snowy winter will be in Texas.
The Farmers’ Almanac (not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac) recently released its winter weather forecast for later this year and into early 2026. The theme for this year’s forecast is “chill, snow, repeat,” according to the more than-200-year-old publication.
“The season officially begins with the winter solstice on December 21, 2025, but the cold and snow might make an appearance as early as September in some areas of the country,” the almanac wrote in its forecast.
So what does this mean for Texas in the winter months? Here’s what to know:
The Farmers’ Almanac’s winter weather outlook for Texas
Texas is expected to have a wetter-than-average winter with period cold snaps, according to the outlook.
The words “cold” and “wet” are labeled across Texas and the entire Southern Plains region, which includes Oklahoma, western Kansas and portions of Nebraska and New Mexico.
While snow will be limited in the region, Farmers’ Almanac said there’s possibility for several cold rain events and occasional freezing precipitation, especially in northern areas.
How does the NOAA forecast for winter compare?
Temperatures in Texas are leaning above normal for the winter months, according to an outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
The outlook, issued on July 17, is a four-and-a-half month prediction valid from December 2025 to February 2026. In North Texas, the normal high for December is 57.9 degrees, 56.5 degrees in January and 60.9 in February.
Precipitation-wise, the CPC’s outlook is predicting “equal chances” for rainfall over the winter months.
When forecasters use “equal chances,” it means they think an area has three possible outcomes — well above, well below, or near normal — that are all equally likely, according to the CPC. Or, sometimes it means that there are no strong influences that would favor one outcome over another.
While this is a snapshot of how things are expected to look in the future, a one month outlook and subsequent weeks’ and days’ forecast will give a better look at what to expect as the date grows near, according to the National Weather Service.
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How accurate is Farmers’ Almanac?
Farmers’ Almanac’s forecasts are created using a “tried-and-true formula that adapts to the mysteries of nature and the ever-changing world in which we live,” the publication said.
The basis for the prediction method was developed by the publication’s founding editor and correlates celestial events and “various meteorological conditions.”
Today’s formula uses the publication’s original methods set in 1818, but also incorporates fluctuations in environment on Earth, sunspots and the moon’s motion.
“Yes, nature throws us a curveball from time to time, but it doesn’t stop us from going out on a limb to not only predict weather patterns up to a year in advance, but to also put it in print,” the publication wrote.
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