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Republicans know that President Donald Trump’s $4.1 trillion tax and spending cuts law isn’t as popular as they’d hoped. They have a plan to turn things around — and it starts very small.
The party’s members of Congress are largely avoiding in-person public forums like the one Rep. Mike Flood hosted in his Nebraska district earlier this month, only to go viral after constituent boos drowned out most of his remarks. Instead of risking jeers, the GOP is urging its lawmakers to tout smaller-scale interactions with constituents who benefit from the new law’s more popular proposals, like tax breaks for parents, overtime pay, and tips.
The playbook is visible on social media this summer: Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., posted a video of a foreman talking about the overtime provision. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, recorded a restaurateur praising the changes to tips. Rep. Rudy Yakym, R-Ind., shared photos of himself talking with preschool owners about the law’s benefits for child care.
It’s all designed to solve a real problem: Democrats hit the GOP hard over the party-line megabill’s treatment of health care, chiefly its setup of almost $1 trillion in Medicaid cutbacks to help pay for tax cuts and more national security spending. And the public appears to have listened; one July poll found six in 10 voters oppose the law, in part because of its cuts to social safety nets.
“Republicans may have lost the first messaging battle, but now we’re focused on winning the war,” a top GOP campaign aide told Semafor.
That includes tackling the law’s Medicaid cuts head-on. House and Senate Republicans’ campaign arms are betting that enough voters will back their reasoning if they explain it — assuming, unlike Flood, that they can get the words out.
To avoid a constituent pile-on, Republicans like Rep. Bill Huizenga of Michigan and Mike Haridopolos of Florida told Semafor they are planning telephone town halls — where they can reach more people but also unilaterally control the crowd, including by muting constituents after they ask questions.
“When people find out the truth, that what we did was added work requirements — which 80% of the American people agree with — and that we put in simple things like more frequent eligibility requirements — which people agree with — that’s good stuff,” Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., told Semafor. “We should sell it, not be afraid of it.”
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The low-key sales job comes as Trump faces other political headwinds, from the GOP base’s discontent with his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case to increasing signs that the economy is slowing under the weight of his trade agenda. But congressional Republicans clearly see his “big, beautiful bill” as a centerpiece of their midterm campaign.
House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain of Michigan spent a couple days visiting manufacturers in New Jersey and Pennsylvania swing districts earlier this month to talk about the megabill — a far more controlled environment than Flood’s open-to-all recital hall.
“I do a weekly newsletter that gets pretty good reach” and now, “we put a section in the newsletter that explains a component, [like] no tax on tips,” Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, an initial critic of the legislation, told Semafor. “We have like a year’s worth of material here.”
They’ll get more possible material next month, when Congress will return with previous little time to keep the government open past Sept. 30. Deficit hawks who held their noses to vote for Trump’s bill are pushing to extend current spending levels, which they argue amounts to a budget cut because of inflation.
Cutting spending as much as possible in a government funding deal is critical to conservatives who hated that the party’s law is projected to add trillions to the debt.
“It is no secret that I think the big, beautiful bill needed to go further on spending restraint,” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, told Semafor. “However, it was a massive leap forward … and I think that’s an important message that we need to double down on, including with respect to the spending bill in September.”
“We need to deliver spending restraint on the approach at or below current levels; we cannot bust that level,” Roy added. “That was part of the deal. And I mean this emphatically.”
Others on the right are praying that firms that may have been waiting for more certainty around the megabill and Trump’s trade agenda will soon start investing in the US.
“Wouldn’t you be smart to actually keep your money on the sidelines until July? [That] would be my argument,” Haridopolos, R-Fla., said. “I’ve got to think, in the next 18 months, the economy is going to take off with all this infusion of money.”
“It’s kind of our economy now, moving forward,” Haridopolos noted of his party.
Room for Disagreement
It’s not clear that the somewhat homespun GOP campaign for Trump’s law will help the party as much as it hopes.
Though many of the Medicaid cuts won’t be felt until after the midterms, Republicans also decided against extending Affordable Care Act subsidies that will hike premiums when they lapse at the end of the year.
Acknowledging how unpopular that decision may prove to be, some moderate Republicans are already pushing for a bipartisan deal to avoid the cliff.
“There is no way for Republicans to sugarcoat or hide from the reality that their only legislative ‘accomplishment’ strips away health care from millions of Americans, raises insurance premiums, and jacks up electricity bills — all to pay for tax breaks for the wealthiest few,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton said.
Eleanor’s view
Democrats have history on their side. No matter how Republicans play it, a new president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms following his election.
It’s clear from the White House’s aggressive posture on redistricting and retirements that GOP officials know they’re on the back foot, Medicaid or not.
Still, that’s exactly why Republicans’ optimism is so striking. They’re willing to admit they lost the messaging battle on Medicaid — because they’re so confident they’ll be able to close the gap touting the rest of their agenda.
Notable
NPR reports that polling shows some Latino voters already turning their backs on Republicans for not lowering prices fast enough.
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