Tropical wave behind Hurricane Erin could strengthen as it tracks toward Caribbean, Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic on the heels of Hurricane Erin that could strengthen into a depression later this week, and it's a system that could impact Florida.

What we know

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring a tropical wave trailing Hurricane Erin in the eastern Atlantic.

The system is producing disorganized thunderstorms but could strengthen as it moves west to west-northwest at roughly 20 mph.

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Meteorologists say the disturbance has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within two days and a 60% chance over the next week.

The wave is expected to approach the Leeward Islands by Friday.

What we don't know

Forecasters say the storm’s longer-term path is uncertain. Its track will be steered by an upper-level ridge, leaving open several scenarios that could bring the system closer to the Caribbean and possibly the Southeast U.S., including Florida, next week.

Wind sheer and the Saharan Dust layer could also play a factor in how quickly this system intensifies.

The backstory

The disturbance trails Hurricane Erin and is one of several waves emerging off the coast of Africa. With unusually warm Atlantic waters, meteorologists warn that any disturbance has ample fuel to intensify.

The next named storm on the 2025 list will be Fernand.

What they're saying

"A tropical depression or storm may form later this week into the weekend in the vicinity of Puerto Rico," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Longer term, there are a lot of scenarios for this system, and we will be watching for next week in the Southeast U.S. and in Florida."

Big picture view

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives in early September. With warm waters and an active wave train off Africa, forecasters are urging residents across the Caribbean and along the U.S. coastline to review preparedness plans now.

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The Source

This story was written based on information shared by the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team on August 18, 2025.