Sabrina Ionescu delivered another game-sealing dagger to secure New York’s first and only win against Minnesota in a four-game Finals rematch that spanned a mere 20 days of the season. Her logo-adjacent and-1 3-pointer at Barclays Center on Tuesday night gave the Liberty an 85-75 victory, though Minnesota took the series, 3-1.
The looming takeaway from the season series is how little can be gleaned from it if the two are to meet again in the postseason.
Liberty forward and two-time league MVP Breanna Stewart didn’t play a single minute in the series while rehabbing a right knee injury. Napheesa Collier, the odds-on favorite to win her first MVP this season, played in the first game before missing the rest with an ankle injury. New York battled through injuries to the majority of its frontcourt, a double-whammy on top of a wonky scheduling stretch. Neither team had much time to ingratiate their late-season additions of DiJonai Carrington (Lynx) and Emma Meesseman (Liberty).
Those X-factors lent an advantage to the Lynx, who have a roster reliant upon the chemistry of their starters. They returned all five of them, whereas the Liberty tinkered and continue to adjust with players in and out of the availability report. When plays broke down and the shot clock closed in, the Lynx were better at finding an open teammate than the Liberty were in their ever-changing rotations and lineups. It also played a pivotal role defensively, where the Lynx already thrive.
The Lynx won the 2024 regular season series, 2-1, and took the Commissioner’s Cup championship. But the Liberty won the 2024 Finals in a full five-game series that included two overtime games on each end. This year's Finals will be best-of-seven for the first time in league history.
Here’s what to take away from the 2025 Lynx-Liberty series, and the two players who will play key roles again in a potential rematch.
Points are at a premium
Every single possession is crucial in these matchups. Neither side can afford to miss the easy layups, which New York did late in the third game of the series. Nor can either cough the ball up repeatedly, another highlighted issue on the Liberty end.
New York lost the turnover battle over the four games, 55-41, allowing Minnesota a 61-44 points off turnovers advantage. The carelessness with the ball in the fourth quarters of New York’s losses was particularly damaging. Entry passes to the post were difficult against a team that packs the paint, and the Lynx forced multiple shot clock violations.
Turnovers and second-chance points will be key statistical categories in a rematch. The Liberty need to value the ball more or find ways to overcome it. They hit a series-high 13 3-pointers in Tuesday’s win, shooting 40.6%, and limiting Minnesota to a series-low 6-of-22 (27.3%).
Officiating will continue to play a role
In the two games at Minnesota’s Target Center, fans filled the lower bowls with various T-shirts decrying the officiating calls they feel won the Liberty the 2024 title. The overall frustration at officiating that’s clouded the entire WNBA season won’t disappear anytime soon, and certainly won't if these two meet in the playoffs.
After a significant free-throw discrepancy in Minnesota’s 86-80 win on Saturday, Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello told local reporters after practice on Monday, “Minnesota can’t be complaining too much now.” Minnesota went 23-of-33 at the line while New York was 5-of-8 in the largest free-throw difference of the regular-season series. It was the second-largest of any game this season. Each of the four games was called by a different officiating crew.
Any discrepancy that large between teams of this caliber opens itself up to fair critique that should be based on equity over equality. The reality is, one team might foul more than the other. Players and coaches want consistency in calls and making the right ones, even when it’s a difficult situation, versus ensuring the free-throw trips are even by game’s end.
The 2025 title is highly likely to come down to those types of calls again. It won’t be only late-game; it will come throughout the contests. Who can handle officiating and the emotions that come with it better? What will the sides point out to referees? How will coaches sway public sentiment on it throughout the course of a potential postseason series? All those factors should come into play.
Lynx key: Courtney Williams’ aggression
The numbers continue to back up Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve’s assertion during the 2024 Finals that when Williams, their under-the-radar 2024 free agent signing, is aggressive and makes plays, the Lynx are in a good spot. She’s averaging a career-best 19.7 points per 40 minutes on two more field goal attempts per game (18.7 FGA ranks 11th in the league) and remains top-five in average assists per 40 (8.5). The 10th-year journeywoman guard remains one of their most critical pieces in this matchup.
In three of Minnesota's four losses to New York since May 2024, Williams hit fewer than 30% of her field goal attempts and scored in single digits twice. In the lone 2024 regular-season loss, Williams went 3 of 13 (23.1%) for nine points. In the Game 5 overtime loss, she was 2-of-14 (14.3%) for four points and three assists, a low mark in the series. Even Game 3, which came down to a game-winner by Ionescu at Target Center, was a 28.6% performance by Williams. She was 3-of-10 from inside the arc.
Williams is the league’s mid-range standout, and when the Liberty let her get to those spots — especially early on in these close contests — it becomes a snowball. She scores 40.4% of her points there, leading the league by a large margin. Paige Bueckers is second at 28.5% among those who have played at least 25 games.
When Williams can tack on a couple of 3-pointers in the series, she becomes dominant. She had two in the Finals Game 1 upset at Barclays for 23 points, then one-upped the performance on Saturday with a 26-point outing. She was 3-of-6 from 3. Reeve credited her for keeping the Lynx in the game on Tuesday. Williams scored a team-high 17 points as the only starter to score more than six points.
Liberty key: Unlock Jonquel Jones early
The Liberty depend heavily on Jonquel Jones, a versatile 6-foot-6 center who can hit from 3 as easily as she can control the paint. But her impact on this series remained limited until Tuesday night’s 22-point, 10-rebound double-double.
New York unlocked her early. She started the game with a turnaround fadeaway jumper, followed by a kick-out assist to Leonie Fiebich for a 3-pointer and her own 3 on an assist from Meesseman. The veteran 2021 MVP scored 17 in the first half, tying her previous season-high against Minnesota set on Saturday. That was the first game played against the Lynx with additional post depth.
It was also her best game on the boards, a battle Minnesota dominated, 106-96, in their three wins. New York won the boards, 37-33, and second-chance points, 19-12, on Tuesday.
Putting Jones, who returned after the All-Star break from an ankle injury, in the actions early opens up the rest of the roster to operate. Ionescu scored 17 with 11 assists, and the team assisted on 79% of their field goals. It was one of their best ball-sharing performances against Minnesota this year.
Newest rivalry is here
Despite the wonky structure of the WNBA’s inaugural Rivals Week, it’s clear the league nailed its claim of an emerging rivalry between the Liberty and Lynx. The series now features a level of chatter off the court that matches the competition on it.
Williams stirred the pot last week on her StudBudz stream when she commented on the Lynx's acquisition of free agent guard Jaylyn Sherrod, who won the 2024 championship with the Liberty but was waived this month to open up a roster spot for Meesseman.
“She left that punk-ass team and she with the good guys now,” Williams said. “Straight up, believe it.”
Brondello, when asked about it afterward, laughed and said she had heard about the comment. She offered a take in stark contrast to Reeve’s rivalry comments the week prior.
“I think rivalries are great,” Brondello said on Monday. “Yes, do we have a rivalry? They (Lynx) play it down. Of course we have a rivalry and it’s great for the league. I don’t know why they play it down. Yeah, we don’t like each other. That’s just how it is.”
After Tuesday's game, Liberty guard Natasha Cloud told reporters, "I know Minny loves to talk about us a lot. We live rent-free, but this is another game of just really feeling good about ourselves."
The fourth and final game of the regular season proved to be the most intense of the series, an understandable side effect of playing so many games in so little time. Luckily for the league and its fans, it merely adds anticipation to a Finals redux.
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