Paxton’s lead over Cornyn nearly cut in half: poll

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the state’s Senate primary is narrowing, according to a new survey from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center survey.

The poll showed Paxton holding a five-point lead among likely primary voters, 44 percent to 39 percent, in a two-way race with Cornyn. Another 17 percent said they were undecided. The last Texas Southern University poll released in May showed Paxton with a nine-point lead over Cornyn.

The five-point gap between Paxton and Cornyn remains the same in a hypothetical three-way race with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who has been considering a primary run. Paxton leads with 35 percent while Cornyn trails at 30 percent. Hunt comes in with 22 percent support. Another 13 percent said they were unsure.

The poll released on Wednesday comes after a separate Emerson College survey released last week showed the incumbent senator and attorney general locked in a dead heat. That poll showed Cornyn leading Paxton 30 percent to 29 percent, with five percent saying they prefer another candidate and 37 percent saying they were undecided.

Most polls released before last week’s Emerson College poll showed Paxton with a double-digit lead over Cornyn, leading to questions about the incumbent senator’s electability in a primary.

Cornyn’s allies have pulled out all of the stops in an effort to boost him. According to The Texas Tribune, the Senate GOP leadership-affiliated One Nation has spent more than $4 million in advertising, while Texans for a Conservative Majority, another pro-Cornyn group, has spent $3.2 million. The pro-Cornyn Conservative Majority Project has spent roughly $500,000.

The latest poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center was conducted from Aug. 6 to Aug. 12, 2025 among 1,500 likely Texas Republican primary voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.

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