College football betting, odds, lines: My best bets for Week 0

Week 0 may not carry the pageantry of a full Saturday slate, but it delivers something just as important: early value. From Ireland to Honolulu, the first handful of college football games gives us a glimpse at new faces, new systems, and — most importantly — lines that could shift fast.

Kansas State’s Heisman hopeful, QB Avery Johnson, headlines across the Atlantic, Kansas tests its ceiling in the Big 12 race, Stanford is suddenly an underdog at Hawaii and two fresh offensive systems collide in Bowling Green.

College football is finally back. Here is my breakdown of a few big Week 0 games and my favorite bets for the opening week:

Kansas State (-3, 49.5) vs. Iowa State in Dublin

Prediction: Kansas State 24, Iowa State 21

The season kicks off in Dublin, where Kansas State and Iowa State renew a rivalry that hasn’t lacked drama. The Wildcats arrive with Johnson, the Heisman hopeful and my preseason pick to make a run at the trophy. Iowa State counters with momentum of its own, coming off an 11-3 season capped by a bowl win over Miami.

Last year, the Cyclones disrupted Johnson with pressure, holding him to a 43% completion rate. Still, Kansas State managed three passing scores and nearly four yards per carry on the ground. The difference this time? The Wildcats upgraded their offensive line — a unit that should tilt this rematch.

A year ago this matchup closed with Iowa State -2.5 at home. With the game shifted to a neutral site and K-State boasting improvements up front, the Wildcats are better positioned to edge it out.

Best bet: Avery Johnson over 47.5 rushing yards (-114)

Fresno State at Kansas (-12.5, 50.5)

Prediction: Kansas 31, Fresno State 19

Kansas enters 2025 with the roster to push into Big 12 contention. The key, as always, is quarterback Jalon Daniels’ health. With Daniels active, the Jayhawks can stretch defenses at every level; with him sidelined, the gap to backup Cole Ballard is glaring. The good news: Daniels is healthy.

Fresno State starts over with transfer QB EJ Warner, a quick-release passer who inherits a patchwork offense filled with JUCO additions. Against a Kansas defense that creates consistent pressure, Warner’s debut could be a rough introduction.

If Daniels stays upright, the Jayhawks should have little trouble handling a rebuilding Bulldogs roster.

Best bet: Pass

Stanford at Hawaii (-2.5, 50.5)

Prediction: Stanford 27, Hawaii 24

Few lines have swung harder than this one. Stanford opened as a 4-point favorite, but the line has flipped and the Cardinal are now 2.5-point underdogs in Honolulu. The fade is easy to understand: Stanford projects as the ACC’s bottom feeder, while Hawaii has flashed progress under Timmy Chang.

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QB Micah Alejado showed late-season promise, pairing accuracy with mobility to breathe life into Hawaii’s scheme. But for all the excitement, Stanford still has enough size in the trenches to compete. The passing may not be there for Stanford, but its ability to run the football should keep it in it. If the number keeps climbing toward the Rainbow Warriors, the value may swing back toward the Cardinal.

Best bet: Micah Ford over 41.5 rushing yards -(114)

Sam Houston at Western Kentucky (-10.5, 61.5)

Prediction: Western Kentucky 33, Sam Houston 26

At first glance, this game looks like filler — but the coaching turnover makes it fascinating.

Western Kentucky tapped former Abilene Christian coach Keith Patterson, who brought along record-setting QB Maverick McIvor (8,000-plus career passing yards). McIvor inherits an offense that’s been retooled through the transfer portal.

Sam Houston counters with Phil Longo, the veteran coordinator whose Air Raid has lit up plenty of FBS scoreboards. But history says brand-new systems rarely click in Week 0, and inefficiency could stall drives early.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 61.5, but my numbers project a slower start before the fireworks arrive.

Best bet: Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky under 61.5 (-110)

Week 0 projections