Republican strategist Karl Rove on Thursday underscored the stakes of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, saying failure to come to a resolution could be the downfall of President Trump’s presidency.
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Rove outlined the three possible outcomes from Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine: a successful peace deal; a failure to reach a deal, resulting in continued conflict; and a Russian victory over Ukraine.
Rove compared the third possibility — which Rove said would result from either no agreement or from an agreement that Russia breaks — to the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, when former President Biden’s poll numbers tanked and never recovered.
“In addition to being the worst possible outcome morally and geopolitically, this third possibility is the worst scenario for the president and the GOP,” Rove wrote in the op-ed.
“The disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and subsequent Taliban takeover broke President Biden’s reputation with voters. He never recovered. Mr. Biden was at 50% approval in Gallup in July 2021; he dropped precipitously after Kabul fell the following month. He bottomed out at 36% in July 2024 before he withdrew from the presidential race,” Rove continued.
“The defeat of Ukraine by Russia would be similarly disastrous for Mr. Trump,” he added.
Rove noted that Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. Since then, Rove said, Trump has “put himself at center stage” with his approach to dealmaking and his engagements with foreign leaders.
“The president can’t abandon his starring role even if he wants to,” Rove said. “Public opinion in America and the rest of the civilized world would rightly blame Mr. Putin for the invasion itself—but Mr. Trump for allowing it to succeed.”
Rove said that the first outcome — a successful deal — is within reach for the U.S. president, and he touted Trump’s steps so far in defense of Ukraine. He also said Trump’s pressure on NATO countries to spend more on defense “is paying off.”
Rove urged Trump to become “as tough on Mr. Putin as he has been on” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying that approach could get the warring countries “to arrive at a deal that results in a durable peace.”
“Mr. Trump can bring about a reasonably successful conclusion to this catastrophic war by doing what Mr. Putin fears most: rejecting the Russian dictator’s flattery and demands and insisting he make a fair, enforceable deal with Mr. Zelensky. Or else,” Rove said.
“Anything less would be a stain on Mr. Trump and on his party, for which they’d rightly pay a high political price,” he continued.
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