Three days ago, President Donald Trump announcedthe leaders of Russia and Ukraine had agreed to meet, an event that would validate his recent summits in Alaska and the White House. But in the last three days, leaders on both sides have been retreating to their corners.
Conversations between the U.S. and European allies about postwar defense commitments for Ukraine have only uncovered the complexity and uncertainty around future defense commitments. And the Kremlin has publicly thrown cold water on Trump’s claim that Moscow is increasingly open to new security guarantees, while ramping up missile attacks on Ukraine. Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the transatlantic talks as “a road to nowhere” on Wednesday.
In the West Wing, Trump is expressing confidence to associates that the talks are still on track, according to a White House official, who, like others in this story, was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. But there is a growing recognition that the talks — which Trump once publicly projected could result in a trilateral summit within a week — are a “grind,” a second White House official said.
“As long as [Trump] feels like conversations are moving forward, then he thinks that's a good thing,” the person said.
Trump and his national security team “continue to engage with Russian and Ukrainian officials towards a bilateral meeting,” the first White House official said. Asked about the Kremlin’s apparent hedging, the official demurred, saying “it is not in the national interest to further negotiate these issues publicly.”
The U.S. president, of course, has been negotiating in public for some time. And he remains, according to three people familiar with his thinking, reluctant to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin, convinced he has more leverage over Ukraine and European allies.
“He’s long believed that Russia has the upper hand in the war itself and needs to be coaxed into peace talks,” said one former administration official. “Ukraine, on the other hand, relies heavily on the U.S. for weapons and intelligence. So there are more pressure points to get them to accept a deal.”
That was the meaning behind Trump’s cryptic social media post on Thursday asserting, “It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country … There is no chance of winning!” According to a senior administration official, Trump wasn’t sending a warning to Putin that he’d consider heavily arming Ukraine if peace talks fail but explaining away Ukraine’s lack of leverage in negotiations as his predecessor’s fault.
Former President Joe Biden, whose administration was reluctant to send certain weapons to Ukraine and at times restricted their use, “would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND,” Trump wrote in his post. “How did that work out?”
Trump, the senior official continued, believes Ukraine is going to have to accept a deal largely on Russia’s terms to end the war.
In a private comment to French President Emmanuel Macron during Monday’s East Room summit that was picked up by a hot mic, Trump said he thinks Putin “wants to make a deal for me…as crazy as it sounds.” But Putin, who for months has ignored Trump’s push for peace while escalating attacks on Ukrainian civilian populations, has yet to show any sign that the president’s belief in him — and his interest in peace — is justified.
One of Russia’s heaviest bombardments since the war began occurred overnight Thursday with 574 drones hitting targets in western Ukraine, including an American electronics factory.
A spokesperson for France’s foreign minister was blunt in concluding that the escalating attacks “illustrate Russia’s lack of any genuine intention to engage seriously in peace talks.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy concurred in a statement on Thursday, writing that the Russians “are trying to get away from the need to hold a meeting. They do not want to end this war.” He also referenced Trump’s social media message, suggesting, perhaps hopefully, that it was about applying pressure on Moscow.
“Putin does not understand anything other than force and pressure,” Zelenskyy continued, adding that Trump “is absolutely right in saying: this must be done not only in defense.”
But Trump, even as he has grown frustrated with Putin over recent months, has been reluctant to increase pressure by imposing new economic sanctions, believing it wouldn’t be enough to deter Putin. And according to the first White House official, Lavrov’s public comments aren’t necessarily reflective of the private, ongoing discussions.
Lavrov dismissed the idea of addressing security guarantees for Ukraine without Russia. “This will not work," he said.
He later told NBC’s “Meet the Press with Kristen Welker” in an interview airing Sunday that there is no meeting planned. "Putin is ready to meet with Zelenskyy when the agenda would be ready for a summit. And this agenda is not ready at all."
In doing so, Lavrov “said the quiet part out loud,” said Jonathan Green, a national security strategist in Washington and former defense policy adviser to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). “Gone is whatever public illusion there was about Russian intentions. Putin wants a return of the Soviet regime, full stop.”
Lavrov’s comments underline the difficulty of reaching an agreement that will satisfy both sides. As contentious as potential discussions of territorial concessions may yet be, getting security guarantees that are robust enough to satisfy Kyiv without being rejected by Moscow won’t be easy either.
“It’s going to be a really hard sell for the Russians to put any European troops into Ukraine,” a former administration official said. “Could they tolerate a monitoring force from non-NATO countries? Probably. A mixed force of some Europeans with Saudi and Indian troops? Possibly. It’s really all about the art of the possible here.”
Although many European leaders have succeeded in building solid relationships with Trump over the last six months, Trump has still distanced himself from the war, putting the onus on Europe to pay for all future defense aid going to Ukraine.
“A break with Trump doesn’t serve anybody so they’re maintaining the pretense that there is still a strong relationship there,” said Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama. “They have been avoiding having to conclude that they’re on their own since [Trump’s] election and at some point they will wake up.”
NATO allies saw a glimmer of hope on Monday in Trump’s statement that the U.S. was willing to play a role in backstopping whatever postwar security guarantees Europe can agree to. But the Pentagon’s top policy official, Elbridge Colby, told a small group of European defense chiefs less than 48 hours later that any U.S. involvement would be “minimal.”
“There are some reasons for optimism,” said one senior official from a European country who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “But there is also concern that he still isn’t appreciating how hard this is and that if it doesn’t come together as fast as he wants it to, he’ll just get bored and lose interest.”
Others are finding hope in Trump’s reputation as a deal maker, which may prevent him from fully walking away until there is a deal.
“He has discovered over the past several months that this is much more complicated than he thought it was, and Putin is not prepared to do him a favor at the cost of Russia's national interest and end this conflict,” said Tom Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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