Every year, there are plenty of wide receivers who give you good weeks. But there’s only a handful who can give you 20 points per game across a season. That’s the elite tier. That’s the difference between a WR1 and a league-winner.
Justin Jefferson has done it. So has CeeDee Lamb. Ja’Marr Chase has lived in that range. Amon-Ra St. Brown hit it in 2023. Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams have multiple 20-plus PPG seasons on their résumés. These are the names that have defined fantasy football over the past decade.
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The question is: Who’s next? Who has the role, the quarterback and the usage profile to realistically push into that 20 PPG range?
To frame it, I looked at each receiver’s usage from 2024 and how similar profiles have historically translated the following year. That gives us a predictive range of outcomes — a high, medium and low points per game expectation — if they’re deployed the same way again. It’s not about comps or projections, it’s about what usage tells us is possible.
Here are five wide receivers who have the usage and environment to crack the 20 PPG barrier in 2025.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Nabers already looked like a star as a rookie. He put up 109 receptions, 1,200 yards and 18.2 fantasy points per game while catching passes from Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock. That’s not just producing through adversity — that’s dominance.
Now, he gets Russell Wilson in 2025, which is a massive upgrade in quarterback play. And when Russ eventually passes the torch, first-round pick Jaxson Dart is waiting in the wings. Dart has already looked like one of the best rookie quarterbacks in the preseason. Nabers is going to be tied to real quarterback play in his second NFL season.
The Trinity Range of Outcomes Tool shows what’s possible. His rookie year usage produced a predictive high-end outcome of 23 PPG, the same range where Chase and Lamb have lived in recent seasons. That’s not a stretch goal. That’s usage telling us his role is elite.
I’m not worried about the toe injury. Nabers is healthy enough, he’s locked into a massive target share and he’s got the skill set to win at every level of the field. A 20 PPG season is right there in reach.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
The Texans offense is going to look different in 2025. Nick Caley takes over as offensive coordinator coming from New England and the Rams with a focus on giving QB C.J. Stroud more control. And with no Tank Dell or Stefon Diggs in the mix, this passing game runs through Collins.
Collins’ usage profile from Weeks 1-17 of 2024 showed a predictive high-end outcome that matched players who historically scored right at that 20 PPG elite line. That’s not speculation, that’s usage telling us what’s possible. His Trinity Score sat in a range where names like Chase and Lamb have lived and that matters because it gives us a usage-based precedent for his ceiling. If you strip away the noise and focus purely on how he was deployed — nearly 25% target share, top three in yards per route run and over 14 yards per reception — the profile screams elite.
Even more importantly, the Trinity Range of Outcomes Tool says that if Collins maintains the same role, his ceiling outcome doesn’t just flirt with 20 points per game — it locks him into the same historical bucket as the very best in fantasy football. With Dell injured and Diggs no longer in Houston, the passing game should consolidate even further around him. In other words, his path to breaking into that elite tier isn’t theoretical, it’s usage-backed and already mapped out.
Collins has the volume, the perimeter dominance and the quarterback play to sustain it. If the Texans offense takes even a small step forward under Caley, Collins has a clear path to joining the Jefferson-Chase tier.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
If you’re looking for the next breakout into superstardom, Thomas is the bet. He’s already entrenched as Trevor Lawrence’s WR1. Travis Hunter will get touches but Thomas is the alpha in Liam Coen’s offense.
Looking at Trinity data from Weeks 10-17 of his rookie year, his usage wasn’t that of a typical rookie. It mirrored players who historically made the jump into true fantasy stardom, producing season-long averages right at 20 PPG. That means Thomas wasn’t just trending toward being a solid WR2, he was already stepping into the usage territory that usually belongs to names like Chase, Lamb and Adams.
When a rookie hits that level of involvement that quickly, it’s one of the clearest signs that the team has already made him the focal point. Stretch that same role across a full season and his predictive range says he isn’t flirting with elite, he’s already there, if the deployment holds steady.
Coen’s history shows he designs his system to funnel opportunities to his best receiver. In Jacksonville, that’s Thomas. Add his size, athleticism and ability to win downfield and the predictive usage says he has everything needed to be the next true difference-maker.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
London has been a big usage player from the jump. He commands targets like a true WR1 and the offense is finally built to maximize it. Darnell Mooney is hurt, Kyle Pitts still hasn’t made the leap and that leaves London as the engine of the Falcons' passing game.
His 2024 usage already tracked like a WR1 across the full season but the final month told the real story. From Weeks 13-17, his predictive range lined up with historical players who hit 23 PPG seasons. That’s league-breaking territory. When usage spikes like that late in the year it’s often a preview of what’s to come if the role carries over.
Now with Michael Penix Jr. locked in as the starter, this passing game has the quarterback play to let London’s profile fully shine. The Trinity Range of Outcomes shows that if he gets deployed the way he was down the stretch, London has a real chance to crack the 20 PPG club. That’s where the league-winners live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Every elite wideout has their moment. This could be Smith-Njigba’s. Seattle moved on from DK Metcalf. Noah Fant is gone. The backfield looks like a committee. They did add Cooper Kupp but his usage profile trended in the opposite direction last year with the Rams. That leaves JSN as the clear No. 1 receiving option.
His Trinity profile from the full 2024 season showed steady growth but the final month told the real story. From Weeks 13-17 his usage spiked to the point where his predictive range pushed right up against the 20 PPG threshold. That matters because late-season growth is often the biggest signal for a young receiver. It means the coaching staff trusted him with more volume, more high-value routes and more responsibility in the offense.
JSN has the pedigree, the route craft and now the role. If his end-of-season usage carries over, he has the predictive profile to make the leap from good to elite.
The Final Word
This is about usage. It’s about opportunity. Nabers, Collins, Thomas, London and Smith-Njigba all have predictive outcomes that signal 20 points per game if their 2025 roles mirror what we saw last year.
If you want the safest bet, it might be Collins. If you’re looking for upside to swing your league, Thomas and London both fit. JSN is a dark horse.
But the one who feels most ready to make the leap is Nabers. The usage is elite. The quarterback play is finally in place. The 20 PPG season is coming.
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