Nearly half of California voters support Gov. Gavin Newsom (D)’s push to create more safe Democratic congressional seats before the midterm election, a new poll found, but support hasn’t crossed the crucial 50 percent threshold and many voters remain undecided.
About 48 percent of voters surveyed in the University of California Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll said they would vote in favor of allowing lawmakers to toss independently drawn congressional maps and use new partisan maps for 2026, while 32 percent would vote against it. About 20 percent said they were undecided.
The vote on the measure, dubbed Proposition 50, is scheduled to take place Nov. 4.
“I think it’s pretty good news for the governor,” IGS Director Mark DiCamillo told The Hill on Friday.
DiCamillo said such polls would typically need 50 percent as a baseline entry point because undecided voters often skew to “no” votes, but the uncertainty over the rapidly emerging issue made it less surprising that it started below that level.
However, he cautioned it won’t be an easy pitch as campaigns gear up on both sides.
“It’s going to be a heavy lift,” he said. “You have to get comfortably above 50 percent.”
Voters were surveyed before California’s Democratic-controlled Legislature this week approved the plan to redraw lines, teeing up the special election, but after Newsom had already put forth the idea as a way to counter efforts in Texas and other Republican-led states to create more GOP seats in the House.
Each state sets its own process for drawing congressional maps. While some leave decisions to lawmakers, California relies on an independent redistricting commission that redraws its maps every decade after new census data is released.
California lawmakers moved ahead with the plan to temporarily move away from the independent maps after Texas state Republicans closed in on their plan for new maps, with final approval expected Friday.
“We’re responding to what occurred in Texas — we’re neutralizing what occurred and we’re giving the American people a fair chance,” Newsom said at a news conference this week. “Because when all things are equal, and we’re all playing by the same set of rules, there’s no question the Republican Party will be the minority party in the House of Representatives next year.”
DiCamillo said the uncertainty of the ballot measure at the time the poll was conducted earlier this month limited analysis of who would be likely to vote in the special election.
“It’s not something that it affects their daily lives,” he said. “It’s more of a process issue.”
He said opponents of the redistricting overhaul have solid messaging in that voters have long lauded the independent nature of California’s mapmaking.
“There are many ways they can appeal to voters,” he said, noting he had recently received a mailer against Prop 50 that touted past comments from nonpartisan voting rights groups.
Respondents who were considered regular voters — those who cast ballots in at least five of the seven most recent statewide elections — were more likely to say they support the measure, at 55 percent in favor to 34 percent against, though, DiCamillo noted.
The poll also found Newsom’s overall favorability among California voters has gone up as he’s centered himself in Democrats’ efforts to challenge President Trump.
About 51 percent of the state’s voters now approve of Newsom’s performance overall, while 43 percent disapprove, based on the poll’s findings.
“People want him to take on President Trump,” DiCamillo said. “Most think this is a role he should be playing and it’s improving his overall ratings.”
The IGS poll surveyed 4,950 California voters in English and Spanish from Aug. 11-17 and had a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points.
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