The Texas redistricting battle is entering a new front as the fight turns to the courts, where Democrats and civil rights groups are expected to challenge the newly passed maps.
Texas House Democrats who had fled the state to stall the maps said that they were returning “to the House floor and to the courthouse” this week — and several groups signaled they are ready to sue as soon as Gov. Greg Abbott (R) signs the legislation.
But experts forecast Democrats will face an uphill climb to stop or even stall the maps, which could net five GOP House seats, from taking effect ahead of next year’s high-stakes midterms.
“Literally minutes after Abbott signs this bill and the redistricting plan goes into effect, there’ll be litigation, most likely by Democrats, by the ACLU, by LULAC, by the NAACP,” said Jon Taylor, the University of Texas at San Antonio’s department chair of political science.
“A host of organizations will make the argument that what was already viewed as a racial gerrymander that took place in 2021 has become even more so in 2025. So, oh yeah, they’re going to court — literally, almost at the same time that Abbott does his thing.”
The Republican-controlled Texas legislature was expected to approve the maps on Friday after a dramatic standoff with Democrats, who left the Lone Star State for two weeks to deprive the state House of the numbers it needed to function.
Democrats returned to the state Capitol this week on the condition that Abbott closed the first special session — and that California moved forward with its plan to counter GOP gains in Texas with Democrat-friendly redistricting in the Golden State.
In announcing their intent to end their quorum break, Democrats said that they “must return to Texas to build a strong public legislative record for the upcoming legal battle against a map that violates both the current Voting Rights Act and the Constitution.”
In the days since, the Texas proposal sailed through the GOP supermajority in the House, though a Democratic filibuster effort was set to stall in the state Senate. Unlike in other states, including California, approval from the Legislature and the governor are all that’s needed for the maps to take effect.
“Next step is the courts. We will not stop,” Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu said Thursday on X.
Democrats have largely argued that the maps are racially discriminatory, disenfranchising millions of minority voters in the state, as they accuse Trump and Republicans of attempting to rig the 2026 midterms in their favor.
“There’ll be two central arguments. The first is that this redistricting plan is a racial gerrymander that violates the federal constitution. The second is that this redistricting plan violates section two of the Voting Rights Act,” said David Froomkin, assistant professor of law at the University of Houston Law Center.
While the U.S. Supreme Court generally accepts redrawing lines on a partisan basis, the VRA — a landmark 1965 law aimed at shoring up civil rights — protects against maps that dilute the voting power of minority voters.
Republicans, notably, have hit back sharply against the criticisms.
“Democrats claiming that redistricting is racist are lying. 4 of the 5 districts the Texas Legislature is drawing will be Hispanic districts,” reads a post from the governor’s office earlier this month.
But opponents of the maps are expected to move quickly.
Democratic State Rep. Rhetta Bowers told CBS Austin on Wednesday that Democrats were readying to file a potential case with the Texas Supreme Court immediately after the expected map passage.
Several groups, including the National Redistricting Foundation, the National Democratic Redistricting Committee’s nonprofit arm; the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund (MALDEF); and the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) filed a motion on Monday asking the U.S. District Court in El Paso to set aside time for a hearing on a preliminary injunction next month.
That filing argues that the maps are unconstitutional, which would send the matter to a three-judge panel, according to legal experts. A panel ruling could then be appealed directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.
But winning in the courts is going to be tough for Democrats in most directions, experts said.
For one, the forthcoming battles in Texas comes as Republicans are increasingly bullish they can chip away at the VRA, with a major Louisiana redistricting battle set to be reheard by the Supreme Court next term.
And their arguments may meet tough audiences in the conservative-leaning Texas and U.S. Supreme Courts.
“Many of the judges that this could go in front of our Abbott appointees. And so I don’t know how much support we’ll actually get in the court,” said Lana Hansen, executive director of Texas Blue Action, an Austin-based Democratic advocacy group.
“I don’t have a lot of hope for what the courts will offer us, but I hope I’m wrong.”
Mark McKenzie, a Texas Tech associate professor of political science who has practiced law in the state, said Democrats’ “best shot” at combatting the Texas maps is likely in other blue states, like California. There, the state legislature on Thursday advanced a plan to put redistricting before voters during a special election this fall, as a direct response to Texas.
At the same time, Froomkin argued that this matter isn’t really about partisan politics.
“I think it’s wrong to frame this as a partisan Democrats-vs.-Republicans issue. That plays right into the hands of how Republicans want to frame this fight. Their position is that this is a partisan battle and that they are entitled to act in partisan ways. But in fact, the issue is about racial discrimination.”
Defeating the maps may be an uphill battle, but Democrats and other groups could be able to stall the maps from moving through the courts with their legal challenges.
“A court certainly could issue an injunction preventing the new map from going into effect in the 2026 midterms,” Froomkin said, though he noted that fact-intensive voting rights cases take significant time and resources to move forward.
There’s a November deadline to file for the midterms’ March primary, and legal delays could cause a scramble to put the maps in effect before then.
“There’s a lot of drama that I think may play out between now and March,” said Taylor, the department head.
“My assumption is that even through all the fights, the litigation, through whatever stops and fits might occur with federal judges in the federal courts, that we will likely see the Texas primary go on as expected in early March of 2026 — maybe.”
But the Texas fight has already had unprecedented effects across the country, including the ballot measure in California. Depending on how far Democrats can take their arguments, the fight could have nationwide legal implications.
“It’s possible that what happens in Texas, and in fact, the Texas case, could end up blowing up everything nationally, not just in terms of redistricting, as we’re already seeing, but blow up the Voting Rights Act at the same time.”
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