I am old enough to remember right after the Gulf War concluded in 1991. There were continual visuals of the U.S. military decimating the Army and Air Force of Iraq, along with nonstop hype about Gen. “Stormin’ Norman” Schwarzkopf and Gen. Colin Powell. All of that glory reflected quite well upon President George H.W. Bush, who was quickly proclaimed “unbeatable” by many in the pontificating and media business in the 1992 election.
Many believe that what convinced Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) — potentially the strongest Democratic candidate at the time — to decide against running for president in 1992 was Bush’s massive popularity, coupled with Nunn’s vote against authorizing military force in the Persian Gulf.
But as it turned out, 1992 wasn’t the year for “unbeatable” H.W. Bush either. In November, he went down to a somewhat embarrassing defeat to Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton (D), who won with a huge assist from independent candidate Ross Perot.
In the movie “Honeymoon in Vegas,” there is a memorable line: “Like, unbeatable is not unbeatable.” Not only is that true in gambling, but in politics as well.
All of this folds into conversation about how the Democratic Party is “leaderless” and in “complete collapse” going into the 2026 and 2028 election cycles.
News flash for those pushing this belief: They are leaderless and in collapse — until the very second they are not.
Perception remains the coin of the realm in politics, and those with any real experience in the field know that it can be flipped in a second back against you, your candidate and your party. “Unbeatable” and “complete collapse” are often momentary mirages that lead one to defeat.
For many Republicans and conservatives, the Democrats are now being led down that road to collapse by a clown car filled with the likes of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Each of them seemingly spouted the only policy initiative they can grasp: They hate Trump and oppose every single thing he does, no matter how good it may in reality be for the American people.
That perception may be comforting to many Republicans, conservatives and right-leaning pundits. But the common-sense Democrats I speak with are deliberately keeping their powder dry for the moment they believe that “serious” Democratic presidential candidates will emerge, with each not only distancing themselves from the partisan and self-destructive clown car, but eagerly seeking to address the “bread and butter” issues ignored by Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party in 2024.
That all by itself would be bad news for the Republican brand in 2026 and 2028. But unfortunately for the Republican Party, it could get much worse, depending upon which issues those “serious” Democrats seek to exploit.
One will surely be the immigration/ICE issue. There is no doubt that tens of millions of Americans — well beyond just the MAGA base — believe President Trump is putting up win after win on the board, with his crackdown on illegal immigration being the first win among equals.
These Americans are thrilled that Trump has not only closed the border that Biden and team pried open to allow millions of illegal immigrants to stream into the country and overwhelm our critical infrastructure, but has enticed well over 1 million to “self-deport” while rounding up hundreds of thousands for deportation. Many of those stopped and arrested are hardened criminals.
Those Americans truly believe what Trump has done to shut the border and send over 1.6 million illegal immigrants back may be the greatest single gift to our nation in decades. Indeed. But therein lies the “exploitable” issue.
There is no doubt that Democrats are already packaging campaign ads depicting “innocent” and crying immigrant children, women and “hard working” men being rounded up for deportation or arrest. Trump can be 99 percent perfect on this issue, but the 1 percent left can still be flipped against the GOP in 2026 and 2028.
I have heard from several high-level Hispanic Republican operatives who — while truly loving Trump — strongly believe the immigration round-up issue is going to be successfully flipped against Republicans. Especially in a national election.
How successful do they have to be to start moving the needle in a measurable and meaningful way? Not very. Another tried-and-true rule in political combat is that negative visuals can drive the perceptions that steer the votes.
As has been demonstrated time and again, national elections are often won or lost by slivers of votes. Reverse one-quarter of a percent of the vote in one district, one-eighth in one county, and one-sixteenth in one state, and you could very well flip an election.
“Unbeatable” was a mirage that came out of Desert Storm in 1991. In 2025, the “complete collapse” of the Democratic Party may give birth to a candidate, yet to be identified, with the skill to cherry-pick exploitable issues for slivers of votes.
An old campaign boss of mine always warned it was not good enough to say you were 10 points behind no matter how far ahead you were, but you have to actually believe it. The Republican Party better start to believe it.
Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.
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