It's the fourth and final week of our series covering the biggest Risers and Fallers in Yahoo ADP, and our last chance to spotlight the names to note heading into your fantasy football drafts this week. For more context, check out the articles from last week and the week prior. Let's get right into it.
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5 Biggest ADP Risers
Honorable Mentions
There are several honorable mentions who saw big moves this past week but don't quite crack the top five. These are names you need to clock in drafts! Emeka Egbuka was the No. 1 riser last week and continues to climb after Jalen McMillan's injury — Egbuka could be a league-winning rookie. Nick Chubb is seeing a major spike as the Joe Mixon injury situation remains notably and terrifyingly quiet (except for news releasing as I write this that he'll miss the first month). Stefon Diggs is seeing a late bump as drafters realize he's probably the WR1 for a New England offense that should be better in 2025, and Tony Pollard is seeing a similar rise for similar reasons (as the RB1 in Tennessee).
5. Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts, TE (ADP -10.05)
With the announcement that Daniel Jones will be the starting quarterback for Indy, I'm surprised to see only Tyler Warren on this list. The rookie tight end is one of several Colts pass-catchers who will benefit immensely from this decision (as opposed to the alternative of Anthony Richardson). The Penn State product is a star-in-the-making — which is why they selected him 14th overall — the only question is whether he'll have an immediate impact in Year 1. Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers have broken our expectations for rookie tight ends in recent years, as it's usually a slow process of growth for the position. But considering Warren is a strong contender for targets alongside Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, and has strong red-zone upside, it's not impossible he continues the trend of history-breaking rookies. Warren should be drafted as a fringe TE1 (which he is) at the fringe of the single-digit rounds (which he now is). Just know that if you pick him, it's not a bad idea to pair him with a quick-starting veteran like David Njoku or Jake Ferguson.
4. TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots, RB (ADP -10.40)
Henderson went from the third-biggest riser last week to the fourth-biggest this week, and has jumped more than 20 spots over these past two weeks alone. He's arguably the biggest consistent riser of the entire preseason, after scoring in each of the first two games and then resting with the starters in the third. Henderson has seen nothing but hype since New England drafted him early in the second round, and drafters have realized how hard it's going to be for Rhamondre Stevenson to hold the "starting job" with this explosive youngster on roster. Henderson has climbed to right around RB20 at the 4-5 turn ... and that still might not be high enough. Even after this meteoric rise, don't hesitate to grab him at cost, or even to reach a little to snag him in the early fourth.
3. Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers, WR (ADP -13.74)
The one guy who can challenge Henderson for "most consistent preseason riser" might be Ricky Pearsall, who was last week's No. 5 and this week's No. 3, jumping roughly 21 spots over that span. Pearsall was once going behind Jerry Jeudy, Jordan Addison and others at wide receiver, but has clawed his way up into WR3 range at the end of the seventh round. And it's still not high enough. Last week I said that "while he's up to WR37 on Yahoo, I'm ranking him much closer to WR27 (or higher)." I'm sticking to that — just like Jauan Jennings is sticking to a "calf injury/holdout" stance that may land him on IR to start the season. Pearsall should be taken ahead of at least Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, Jameson Williams and Zay Flowers (all going ahead of him), and arguably has far more upside than DeVonta Smith, Xavier Worthy and Courtland Sutton as well. If you're looking for a wideout in the sixth round, Pearsall's an excellent option.
2. Braelon Allen, New York Jets, RB (ADP -27.90)
Breece Hall was the third-biggest faller in this series a couple weeks ago, but this is the first time Braelon Allen has seen the appropriate countermeasure rise. In the Hall blurb, I introduced his ADP fall by saying, and I quote, "Two words: Braelon Allen. The 6-foot-1, 235-pound specimen has gained a whole lot of traction in recent days as fantasy analysts contemplate a committee backfield in New York ... alongside yet-unsubstantiated rumblings of a Hall trade." All of that remains true, and Allen outrushed Hall during the preseason — on an admittedly small sample size — with 4.5 yards per carry (67 yards on 15 carries) to Hall's 3.5 (35 yards on 10 carries). While we're not saying that Allen is going to take the job outright, the gap is looking less and less wide as the weeks go by, and it's not impossible we see a David Montgomery-Jahmyr Gibbs situation in 2025. (New OC Tanner Engstrand comes from Detroit, by the way.) Allen's currently going 50 picks after Montgomery, as well as 25 picks after Jaylen Warren and Jordan Mason, who are in similar situations as elite handcuffs with standalone upside if they carve out enough volume.
1. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders, RB (ADP -58.59)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, or "Bill," as he apparently prefers, is going to need some oxygen after the Brian Robinson Jr. trade launched him into the ADP stratosphere. JCM, Bill, or whatever we'll be calling him this year was being drafted in the 200s a month ago ... and is currently going in the 10th round (for now), roughly between Allen and Giants rookie RB Cam Skattebo. With Robinson off to San Francisco, the situation in Washington is undeniably intriguing ... but almost equally murky. Austin Ekeler was a superstar just a few years ago, and was more efficient in Washington in 2024 than he had been in 2023. He's also the clear favorite as a pass-catcher. And Chris Rodriguez Jr. remains a consideration for early-down work, despite all the hype around Croskey-Merritt. Who, as a reminder, was taken in the NFL draft's seventh round, just 12 picks above Mr. Irrelevant. I'm not saying Bill is irrelevant, but the hype around the rookie has gone too far for my taste. I'd rather take Ekeler a round or two later than reach to secure Croskey-Merritt. If your league is less aware of the "hype train" and let's him fall into the double-digit rounds, he's absolutely worth a flyer there, but be wary of taking him earlier than that.
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5 Biggest ADP Fallers
Honorable Mentions
Briefly, let's remind ourselves about the consistent fallers to avoid: Joe Mixon (injury), Chris Godwin Jr. (injury), Rashee Rice (looming suspension) and Jauan Jennings (injury/holdout) are extremely volatile and feel more likely to take a negative turn than a positive one these days. Elsewhere, rookie Steelers RB Kalen Johnson has fallen a bit after leading the team in carries in the preseason — playing all three games while Jaylen Warren played just one — and averaging just under four yards per carry. I'm not all that worried by it, and am still targeting Najee Harris' successor in drafts. Courtland Sutton has dipped in ADP as hype has continued to build around Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. He's not a guarantee for the 135 targets he saw in 2024 and could underperform as a result. And Jonnu Smith is continuing to fall after his initial nosedive post-trade (from Miami to Pittsburgh). He's not the sleeper tight end I'd be targeting in the 10th or 11th round — that would be Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, Elijah Arroyo or Chig Okonkwo.
5. David Montgomery, Detroit Lions, RB (ADP +5.20)
This is a late move for David Montgomery, but it's one I've been campaigning for all offseason. Ever since the Bears poached Ben Johnson from Detroit's offensive coordinator position, my concern for the 2025 Lions offense has only continued to grow. They also lost two excellent interior offensive linemen in Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, which doesn't bode well for Montgomery in particular. He relies heavily on offensive dominance, touchdown opportunities and running the clock out with big leads — all of which may be less prevalent after the OC switch this season. With Jahmyr Gibbs becoming one of the premier backs in the league, and Montgomery's late-2024 injury, we also might have seen the balance of volume tip heavily towards Gibbs moving forward. I wouldn't be shocked if Montgomery still managed 1,000+ rushing yards (as he does every year), but if his touchdowns drop from the double digits back down to five or six (where they were pre-Ben Johnson Lions), he will not return value in the late fifth round.
4. Jerry Jeudy & David Njoku, Cleveland Browns, WR (ADP +3.75) & TE (ADP +6.04)
Presumably, Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku are falling because fantasy drafters are concerned about the Browns' (admittedly apocalyptic) quarterback situation. Neither Dillon Gabriel nor Shedeur Sanders turned into the savior of the franchise during the 2025 preseason, which means they'll be resorting to Joe Flacco in Week 1. But ... that's good news for Jeudy and Njoku. Flacco offers far more fantasy upside than any of the other options would have, and even turned Josh Downs into a top-10 wideout for a decent stretch of last season. While neither Jeudy nor Njoku is exactly safe for fantasy (nor is Flacco's hold on the starting job), it doesn't entirely make sense for them to be dropping in late August. Fortunately, this should make both slightly better values on draft day, if you're looking for target-based upside in the middle rounds.
3. Brian Robinson Jr., San Francisco 49ers, RB (ADP +10.24)
If this is the first time you're seeing "San Francisco 49ers" next to Brian Robinson Jr.'s name, welcome to late August! The Niners acquired Robinson in a bag-of-chips trade with the Commanders, as additional depth behind Christian McCaffrey, in an otherwise banged up running back room. And that's all it is. Depth. Questionably handcuffable depth at that. San Fran still has Isaac Guerendo, who might have the edge over Robinson for the "RB2" spot, but none of that really matters as long as CMC is healthy (which he currently is). Robinson might vulture a touchdown or two, and see a couple short-yardage snaps throughout the year, but he has lost nearly all fantasy shine for 2025. The fact that he remains as high as the eighth or ninth round is baffling — he should be in the Rico Dowdle, Will Shipley, Tyler Allgeier range, not the J.K. Dobbins, Tank Bigsby range he's currently settled in. Unless B-Rob's ADP drops another few rounds by draft day, he's going to be off my boards.
2. Justin Fields, New York Jets, QB (ADP +11.03)
Jets starting quarterback Justin Fields continues to slide down draft boards thanks to a lackluster preseason and the frequent passing "lowlights" out of camp. But this is a classic case of double-counting. We didn't expect Fields to be a great passer. We draft him in fantasy because he breaks the game with his rushing upside — arguably the only guy in Lamar Jackson's tier. Over the last three seasons, whenever he's the starter, Fields has averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game. That's good for somewhere between QB5 and QB8 in any given year ... but his ADP is QB12 and falling. It might not be pretty, he might not win a lot of games, but as long as Fields doesn't lose the job — which is less likely with Tyrod Taylor's recent knee surgery — he will be a QB1. This drop makes the minimal risk even more palatable. Fields is a superb late-round QB option.
1. Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers, WR (+16.58)
Nothing has gone right for Jayden Reed's fantasy fans since his decent start to the 2024 season. He disappeared for the vast majority of the year, then the Packers drafted Matthew Golden in the first round and now Reed is dealing with a sprained foot that could last through early September. Even when healthy, Reed is shaping up to be somewhere between the 2A and 2D in this receiving corps, with Golden pulling ahead as the No. 1 and the mess of other complementary options in Green Bay. Even after this fall — third-biggest last week and biggest this week — Reed is perhaps the worst pick in the early double-digit rounds. You can get Khalil Shakir, Josh Downs, Keon Coleman or even Jayden Higgins in a similar range (and I would choose any of those guys). With no floor and a very low ceiling, Reed is likely headed further down the ADP list between now and opening kickoff.
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