Opinion - 5 reasons Putin will never end his war in Ukraine

If President Trump ends the Russo-Ukrainian War with a durable peace, then he will certainly deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. But the key word is “durable.” For an accord to last longer than it takes the ink on the document to dry, it has to be acceptable to, and accepted by, both sides.

Mutual acceptability implies some degree of equally distributed gains and losses. Anything else would be perceived by one of the sides as unfair and unjust, likely dooming the accord.

The equal distribution of gains and losses favors the aggressor. In principle, aggression should not be rewarded with any gains. It should be punished with losses, whether in the form of reparations or loss of acquired territory.

At this point, the reality of power clashes with principle, and it may prove impossible to punish the aggressor to the deserved degree. Compromise may be unavoidable, even if unacceptable to the victim.

There are thus two legitimate and durable ways for the Russo-Ukrainian War to end. Russia and Ukraine could agree to a deal that falls short of each of their desired ends, or Russia could have an epiphany and willingly abandon its imperialist war.

In the first instance, both sides would be unhappy, but equally so. That might deter them from seeking revenge or otherwise aggravating their relations. Given Russia’s current rejection of any compromise that falls short of its maximalist demand for Ukraine’s destruction, it could agree to such a deal only if forced by a joint coercive effort by Ukraine, the U.S. and Europe.

In the second instance, Trump would encourage Vladimir Putin to hightail it to Pyongyang and then support whichever more or less rational Russian leader succeeds him. Obviously, Putin won’t oblige Trump, which means that Trump would have no alternative to forcing Putin to see the light by arming the Ukrainians and enabling them to reverse Russian territorial advances.

In both scenarios, Russia can be brought to the negotiating table only by force. On his own, Putin will not and cannot opt for peace — a fact that neither Trump nor his key advisor, Steve Witkoff, appears to appreciate. But understanding that Putin has no interest whatsoever in a durable peace is the first and most important step on the road to peace.

As Thomas Friedman of the New York Times puts it, “Putin is a bad guy, a coldblooded murderer. He is not the friend of the president. That is a fantasy that Trump chooses to believe is real.”

But being a coldblooded murderer is only half the problem; that is not why Putin doesn’t want peace. The reasons for that are many.

First, Putin truly believes that the Ukrainian state must be destroyed in order for Russia to survive. That’s absurd, of course, but it’s also the intractable reality. Exterminating Ukrainians as a distinct people is an imperative for Putin. No compromise is possible.

Second, Putin has wholly identified himself with the war. It’s his. As a result, his political — and possibly physical — survival depends on the war’s outcome. And given that the war has killed or wounded over 1 million Russians and ruined what was once an economy with great potential, nothing short of a smashing victory will do.

Third, Putin knows that if and when the war ends, several hundred thousand demobilized soldiers — angry, aggressive and armed — will descend like locusts on Russian society and increase its already-high level of criminality. Putin knows from Russian history that hungry returning soldiers can also bring down regimes.

Fourth, Putin has created a war economy that benefits a large segment of the population and a variety of elites. Ending the war means transitioning from that kind of economy to a consumer economy and experiencing adjustment difficulties and a potentially large downturn.

Finally, the war enables Putin to pretend that Russia is still a great power. Once the war ends, Russians and especially their elites will see that their brilliant leader has transformed their country into an appendage of China and North Korea. Inexpensive vacation packages to the Hermit Kingdom will be small consolation for the loss of prestige.

The moral of the story is obvious.

If Trump truly wants a Nobel for bringing peace to Ukraine and Russia, he will have to address the primary root cause of the war: namely, Putin. Anything else is a fake negotiation that can only produce a fake peace.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as “Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires” and “Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.”

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