For three years European nations have funneled huge amounts of arms to Ukraine to help Kyiv battle Russia’s full-blown invasion.
Now, with reserves dwindling from a grinding, ammunition-guzzling conflict that shows no sign of ending, a factory that opened in Germany on Wednesday could go some way to replenishing stocks.
Rheinmetall, one of the world’s largest defense contractors, has just finished building an ammunition factory which it claims to be the largest in Europe.
The site, the size of five football fields, was completed in 18 months and is already churning out 155mm, NATO- standard artillery shells.
For Armin Papperger, Rheinmetall’s cheery CEO, once a target of a Russian assassination attempt, speedy completion was “very important to give a signal that we can react, Europe is able to react, NATO is able to react,” he told CNN.
Papperger pledged that 25,000 shells will be delivered to Ukraine by the end of this year and that the company expects to pump out 350,000 shells by 2027.
And there is catching up to do. Speaking at the opening of the factory, NATO Chief Mark Rutte, who has long warned the Kremlin war machine was outpacing Europe’s, said the continent’s capacity to produce artillery ammunition was six times bigger than just two years ago.
But he added, there was “no time to rest… the challenges we face are not going away any time soon.”
Ed Arnold, senior research fellow at the London-based think tank RUSI, told CNN that for European countries which have not fired significant artillery rounds since the end of the Cold War boosting arms production was no easy task.
“The difficulty is, can you do it quickly, can you do it in manner that is supportive [to other European countries]? It’s got to be something that’s done collaboratively, you can’t just do it at a national level anymore.”
Symbolic finish
The timing of the completion is symbolic, if not significant. It is also highly serendipitous.
The recent flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at finding an agreement to end Russia’s three-and-half-year full-scale war in Ukraine, has catapulted the discussion of “security guarantees” back to the fore.
Trump has signalled that the United States might provide air support to Kyiv as part of a peace deal with Russia, but that would leave European nations to monitor and patrol some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) of contact line.
Beyond that, what security guarantees actually mean, and how and what nations might contribute, remains murky.
On Wednesday, the company also welcomed German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to the inauguration of the plant, with the Germany government eager to show it is prioritizing European security.
Asked by CNN about security guarantees and what exactly Europe can offer, Rutte said only that over a week since their meeting with Trump in Washington, “detailed, difficult” discussions were ongoing.
He added that because nations “have not agreed on everything is not a bad signal, it means that we are working hard and I am absolutely sure we will get there deciding on the security guarantees, what it will look like with American involvement.”
Defense Minister Pistorius for his part was equally inexplicit, telling journalists “never put anything off the table before the negotiation started, and never put anything on the table, before negotiations started. That would be the biggest mistake we can do. Of course, we consider every contribution we might be able and willing to deliver.”
A key goal of Ukraine – NATO membership, and the collective protection it brings – is distant. As is the idea of European boots on the ground, something fiercely opposed by Russia. Arnold called such a move “fraught with danger” given the possibility of Putin invading another European country.
But none of these more ambitious schemes will matter without a ready supply of arms, something the new Rheinmetall plant aims to help achieve.
The Europeans – particularly Germany – will also hope this new factory, construction of which begun well before Donald Trump even won the 2024 election, will serve as a reminder to the US president that Europe is taking heed of his warning about the continent needing to boost its own defensive capabilities.
Speaking at the event, German Vice-Chancellor Klingbeil described the plant as an important symbol for people in Ukraine – as well as a signal that Germany is ready and willing to act.
Cabinet meets in ‘submarine’
Closer to home the completion of the plant is another win for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his defense minister.
Merz has made the investment, growth and image of the army, as well as Germany’s more aggressive security posture, a cornerstone of his chancellorship.
On Wednesday morning, Merz and Pistorius held a highly symbolic cabinet meeting in the defense ministry in Berlin.
There the cabinet agreed to a draft bill to reintroduce voluntary military service and the approval of Germany’s first ever national security council.
For the first time in 20 years, the whole cabinet met inside the secure conference room known as the U-Boat.
The room is “surveillance-protected” and, when in use, it “produces sounds reminiscent of the acoustic environment on board a submarine,” according to the defense ministry, in an effort to deter wire-tapping.
Stefan Mair, the director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told CNN the optics of Wednesday’s meeting underscored Merz’s commitment to security and defense.
It is a “top priority for him… and that he is convinced that the chancellery has to play the dominant role,” Mair said, adding that Merz “sees himself as a chancellor who wants to shape foreign and security policy. And I think this is underlined certainly by all the initiatives.”
The message of Wednesday was a simple one: Europe is materially forging a path towards strengthened security. But the answers for Ukraine are more hypothetical.
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