
Week 1 of the college football season doesn’t waste any time warming up, dropping us right into a heavyweight clash between No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes and the top-ranked Texas Longhorns at noon ET on Saturday. This is more than just a game, it’s a rematch layered in storylines.
Texas — the +450 favorite at BetMGM to win the College Football Playoff — is out for redemption after falling 28-14 to Ohio State in last year’s CFP semifinal. Texas QB Arch Manning is the Heisman favorite (+500 at BetMGM) before taking his first snap as a starter, and Ohio State is also going with a freshman QB in Julian Sayin. This, without question, is the marquee matchup of the opening weekend. The Buckeyes opened as 3-point favorites, but the line is now down to a consensus of Ohio State -1.5.
We've got the game covered from all angles, as Ben Fawkes reveals the betting action from his conversations with bookmakers, while Corbie Craig and Matt Russell offer up a position-by-position comparison between the two teams and give a couple best bets on Saturday's biggest game.
No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State (-1.5, 47.5)
Betting action: One oddsmaker told me that it's been "one-way traffic" on Texas, and every sportsbook I spoke with for my action report on the game had more tickets and money on the Longhorns. One book in Vegas even had twice as many tickets and five times as much money on Texas. There has been some sharp interest in the over 47.5, but respected bettors have largely stayed away from the spread in this one, according to the oddsmakers I talked with this week. -Fawkes
Positional comparison
Quarterbacks
Manning is the name everyone in college football knows, and unlike most hyped prospects, he’s already proving it’s more than just buzz. The former No. 1 overall recruit has had the luxury of patience, learning for 2.5 years under Steve Sarkisian while NFL quarterbacks have passed through Austin. On the other side, Ohio State turns to Sayin, a former Alabama blue-chip transfer ranked among the top six in the portal. Sayin brings polish and talent, but Manning’s seasoning and playmaking edge tilt the scale.
Edge: Texas
Skill positions
Ohio State once again enters the year with a ridiculous receiver room, headlined by sophomore phenom Jeremiah Smith — already a Heisman dark horse and projected 2027 NFL first-rounder. Lining up with him is Carnell Tate, a 6-foot-3 playmaker who has drawn comparisons to George Pickens and Keon Coleman. Texas doesn’t lack firepower, with Ryan Wingo, Deandre Moore and true freshman playmaker Kaliq Lockett, but the Buckeyes’ sheer size and depth at wideout makes them nearly impossible to defend.
Edge: Ohio State
Offensive line
Texas’ O-line had a rocky August scrimmage against its own defense, and losing four starters from last year doesn’t help. Ohio State’s defensive front isn’t much easier to deal with, and the Buckeyes look more settled in the trenches. For a game that could be decided by protection and push, that stability matters.
Edge: Ohio State
Defensive line
The Buckeyes’ defensive line, however, is in rebuild mode after losing all four starters. Texas, conversely, has spent all offseason praising its defensive front as the unit that could define its season. In a matchup where both quarterbacks will need time, Texas has the bigger swing factor up front.
Edge: Texas
Secondary
Few defensive backs in the country can change a game like Ohio State’s Caleb Downs. He has a rare blend of instincts, IQ and explosiveness — a player who seems to know the route combinations before receivers do. With Downs anchoring the back end, the Buckeyes have the best singular difference-maker in the secondary.
Edge: Ohio State
X-Factor
Forget clichés about coaching or special teams — the betting market has already spoken on this one. Ohio State opened as a 3-point favorite but has been bet down to just -1.5. The total also dropped from 50.5 to 47.5, indicating strong conviction toward a lower-scoring, grind-it-out contest. That favors Texas, with Manning’s experience giving the Longhorns the steadier hand in a possession-by-possession battle. -Craig
Edge: Texas
Best bets
Craig: Overall, my number likes the Buckeyes to get it done in a matchup which I just can’t see a path to Texas scoring enough points due to a combination of a bad offensive line and a stout Ohio State secondary. However, Sarkisian is an amazing coach who makes changes in game and it wouldn’t surprise me for the Longhorns to look to get the ball to bubble screens or running backs in space allowing them to bypass the pocket time needed to get a progression while limiting the coverage available by Caleb Downs.
My projection: Ohio State 26, Texas 21
This is the dream Week 1 matchup: the defending champion against the nation’s top-ranked team, both with fresh faces under center and title hopes already on the line. On paper, Ohio State holds the edge at skill positions and in the secondary, while Texas has the advantage in the trenches and with its quarterback. The spread reflects how razor-thin the margin is. One thing is certain: when the dust settles Saturday night, the national title picture will already look a lot clearer.
Best bets: Ohio State -1.5, Texas WR Quintrevion Wisner over 16.5 receiving yards (-115) (BetMGM)
Russell: I understand why Ohio State is favored over Texas, but the reason the Longhorns are commonly ranked as the preseason No. 1 is that there are fewer questions about the Texas’ capability on both offense and defense. With a rookie quarterback and new play-callers on both sides of the ball, the Buckeyes could be excused if they start the season slow.
Against almost any other opponent, that would likely still mean a comfortable win — but not against Texas, who just played this “type” of game last season, going to then defending champion Michigan with some question marks in Week 2. Sarkisian’s group handled that with ease, winning 31-12. This one should be much closer, so getting points with the No. 1 team feels like the more valuable option.
Best bet: Texas +1.5
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