Tropical Storm Fernand, now a post-tropical cyclone, is officially not on the National Hurricane Center’s watchlist anymore.
Something else new is, though.
Thursday morning, the hurricane center flagged a new tropical disturbance to watch — a tropical wave forecast to roll off Africa’s coast this weekend and potentially develop in the far eastern Atlantic.
Forecasters say conditions could be ripe for some “slow development” of the system as it heads west toward the Caribbean next week. As of 8 a.m. Thursday, they gave it no chance of strengthening in the next two days and a 20% shot of forming a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days.
“As you can imagine, too early to know if this will impact land or just be a fish storm (staying over the open waters),” posted Matt Devitt, chief meteorologist for Southwest Florida’s WINK News, on X on Thursday.
The system is still days away from potentially forming, so the long-range computer models are very uncertain on what it might do once it emerges into the Atlantic. But early runs suggest a western path for at least a few days.
However, formation — if it happens — is still many days away for this system, which is still thousands of miles away and hasn’t even entered the Atlantic yet.
The brief lull in storm formation during one of the traditionally busy times of the season ahs forecasters warning residents of hurricane-prone spots (like Florida) to use this time to prepare for a busy season ahead.
“Listen closely… you can hear a pin drop in the Atlantic,” wrote Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist for WFLA Tampa Bay, on X. “But on average 75% of Atlantic tropical activity is still ahead. Being this quiet is rare as we approach peak season.”
“Right now the background climate state is super unfavorable for development, but that will likely change by mid September. Last year was backloaded with Sept-Oct storms, this could be the same?”
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