A pair of almanacs created to help farmers plan their work predict cool, drier-than-normal weather this fall across Northern Michigan and the rest of the state, but the National Weather Service says to instead expect more warmth after Labor Day.
While Labor Day weekend kicks off the unofficial fall season with pumpkin-spice drinks, festivals and other traditions, Sept., 22 is the official first day of fall.
The Old Farmer's Almanac released its nationwide fall weather predictions on July 11, and forecast the Midwest and Lower Lakes, including Michigan, will be cool this fall. In September, conditions are expected to be rainy to the north, with possible early snowfall and late "brief warmups." Farther south in Michigan, weather could be drier.
The Farmers' Almanac says clear skies are expected in September, with cooler air setting in by the end of the month. Residents could see snow early in October.
"The wettest regions this fall will be the Great Lakes, Northeast, and parts of the Southeast, while the driest stretches are expected in the Southwest and parts of the West Coast," the Farmers' Almanac said. "As for the first snowfall? Expect flakes to fly in the northern Rockies and Montana as early as early October, with snow reaching the Great Lakes and Northeast by mid to late October."
The National Weather Service, meanwhile, predicts warmer temperatures for Michigan's Lower Peninsula, as well as normal precipitation across Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana.
"One of the main headlines for the late summer and early fall is the potential for widespread warmth as above-normal temperatures are favored for virtually the entire nation," the weather service said. "This is not particularly surprising given that the August to September period has among the largest coverage of warm trends of any three-month period of the year."
Here's the fall weather predictions in Michigan 2025:
When does fall start?
Monday, Sept., 22, 2025, is the first day of fall, marking the autumnal equinox in the northern hemisphere when the sun is directly above the earth's equator.
"Because of the Earth’s tilt, the northern and southern hemispheres trade places in receiving the sun’s light and warmth most directly," EarthSky said.
What does the Old Farmer's Almanac predict for fall in Michigan?
Here are the fall predictions from The Old Farmer's Almanac 2025:
September: The Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan could see frequent rain, drizzle, and early snow with warm spells later in the month. There will be below-normal average temperatures at 57 degrees, with slightly above-normal rainfall at 2.5 inches. Most of the Lower Peninsula will see a mix of showers and sun, with periods of warmth early and mid-September, then cooling later.
October: The Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan will see a mixture of chilly rain and snow, with few sunny days and warmer days in the mid- to late days of the month. There will be below-normal average temperatures, about 45 degrees, with below-normal rainfall at 1.5 inches. Most of the Lower Peninsula will see scattered showers early and mid-October, followed by sunny, cool days and a mild end to the month.
What does the Farmers' Almanac forecast for fall?
"This fall will keep us on our toes," the Farmers' Almanac said.
In early September in Michigan (and the Midwest as a whole), clear skies are expected, with cooling air setting in by the end of the month.
"The month continues with a tug-of-war between fair weather and storm systems, including a notable hurricane threat along the Atlantic Seaboard in early September," the Almanac said. "By the end of the month, cooler air begins to move southward, especially across the Rockies and Great Lakes."
Residents could see snow early in October.
"The Northeast and Great Lakes regions begin to flirt with early snow, especially in higher elevations. November brings the first real taste of winter for many. Snow becomes more frequent in the Rockies, Plains, and Great Lakes, with wet snow even reaching parts of the Northeast," the Farmers' Almanac said.
What does the National Weather Service say about fall 2025?
The NWS forecast on July 17 for fall says much of the nation will see a warmer fall season, including September, October and November. Every region of the country, including Michigan has a higher risk of warmer-than-usual temperatures, the weather service says.
Michigan's Lower Peninsula has a 40%-50% chance of above-normal temperatures, while the central to eastern side of the Upper Peninsula has a 33%-40% chance of above-normal temperatures.
"As we progress to the core fall season (September-November) and October-December), warm trends continue to dominate much of the nation while early impacts from the anticipated lack of El Niño begin to affect the forecast pattern later in Fall," the weather service said. "The most confident areas of above-normal temperatures are across the Great Basin/Central Rockies … consistent with recent trends.
Will it be a rainy fall season in Michigan?
According to the NWS, Michigan is likely to see about normal precipitation over the fall months.
"Later in fall (October-December), the forecast pattern increasingly begins to resemble a La-Niña-like signature, with above-normal precipitation favored for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and a tilt toward below-normal precipitation spreading across the Southern Tier," the NWS said.
How accurate are almanacs?
The almanacs provide a long-range forecast for farmers to plan ahead and optimize their yield.
A climavision.com article notes the uncertainty of almanacs should be taken into consideration and shouldn't be relied on for detailed predictions.
"While the (Old Farmer's) Almanac claims an 80% accuracy rate and has made notable predictions, studies show it is only 52% accurate, making it unreliable for precise, long-term forecasts compared to modern meteorology," according to climavision.com.
An article from popularmechanics.com also questions the accuracy of such almanacs.
"The almanacs say they can predict weather with around 80% accuracy, but a University of Illinois study disagreed, saying the Almanac was only about 52% accurate — which is essentially random chance," popularmechanics.com said.
Contact Sarah Moore @ [email protected]
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Northern Michigan fall weather for 2025: What forecasters predict
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