There’s no doubt quarterback is the most important position in team sports, but just how valuable is each quarterback against the spread?
It’s an important question for bettors (and bookmakers) to answer, so that when a quarterback is injured, they have a sense of how much the line should change. Outside of a handful of skill-position players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley, only an injury to a starting QB is going to significantly move the point spread in the NFL. And knowing roughly how much the line will move can provide plenty of value for bettors who get in early.
Before the 2025-26 season kicks off, I spoke to 12 oddsmakers from 11 legal sportsbooks across the country and asked them for the difference in the point spread if the starting QB and backup (both healthy) were playing at home against a league-average team. I then took all 12 different ATS values, averaged them together and ranked the starting QBs from Nos. 1-32. I also granted the oddsmakers anonymity to voice their opinions of QBs they were higher or lower on than consensus.
When moving a line based off a QB change, there are a variety of factors oddsmakers consider, including:
The current line and how close it is to a key number
Starting QB’s talent level and quality of the backup
How much of the offense would need to change with the backup
The strength of the offensive coordinator
The overall talent level of the team (how good is rest of offense and defense)
Where the game is being played (home/road/neutral site)
For the first time, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen ranked as the NFL’s most valuable QB against the spread, worth just under a touchdown (6.98 points ATS), slightly ahead of Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (6.94). Mahomes had been the most valuable QB against the number in each of the past two seasons when I did this exercise.
In 2018, one oddsmaker had Allen worth zero points ATS heading into his rookie season — the same as backup Matt Barkley — while Mahomes was worth five points more than Chad Henne. How times have changed.
Here is how much every starting QB is worth relative to his backup:
Top 5 QBs by ATS value
1. Josh Allen, Bills (6.98 points ATS)
Backup QB: Mitch Trubisky
The big knock on Allen coming into the NFL was his accuracy, and recently it's been his propensity for turnovers, both things he’s vastly improved over his career. The NFL MVP last season led the Bills to a 13-4 record, was tied with Lamar Jackson for the league's best QBR (77.3) and threw 28 TDs with only six INTs in the regular season — to go along with 12 rushing TDs.
“We saw a jump in decision-making last year and lack of throwing interceptions,” one oddsmaker noted.
Oddsmakers spoke glowingly of Allen’s improvement and overall ability, and also weren’t impressed with Mitch Trubisky as a backup.
“Allen is such a dynamic player and he brings stuff to the table that Trubisky doesn’t,” said one oddsmaker. “It’s a night-and-day difference. Allen is probably worth more to the spread than anyone else.”
Another veteran Vegas oddsmaker pointed to Buffalo’s lack of skill-position talent as another reason to bump up Allen, opining, “Allen does everything. He’s just so big and indestructible, and he’s such a weapon on those third-and-short and fourth-and-shorts. It changes everything about their whole game plan. The one thing about Buffalo is, if you ask someone on the street who their starting three WRs are, I don’t think anyone could answer it. Philadelphia, Kansas City, everyone knows their receivers. If you took Buffalo’s receivers and moved them to New Orleans and put the Saints’ on the Bills' roster, I don’t think there’s much of a difference.”
Allen’s Bills are the only NFL team favored in all 17 games this season.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (6.94)
Backup QB: Gardner Minshew
Even with all of those accolades for Allen, Mahomes just needed 1 more point from any oddsmaker to surpass Allen and keep the No. 1 spot. Despite the Chiefs falling short in Super Bowl LIX, oddsmakers didn’t have any concern over Mahomes’ abilities.
“I still have him as a top-three QB and Gardner Minshew is an average backup,” one oddsmaker texted. “They have good weapons around him and a good defense, too.”
Despite numerous close wins in the regular season, Kansas City still won its ninth straight AFC division title last season en route to a 15-2 record. However, the Chiefs were only 8-9 against the spread.
Several oddsmakers still had Mahomes as their top overall QB against the number, ahead of Allen, with one saying Mahomes and Burrow were his two top QBs, regardless of whom the backup was.
“I haven’t seen any drop-off from him,” one oddsmaker said. “I believe last year I had a 7-point difference between him and Carson Wentz. I think Mahomes is still QB1 in the league.”
3. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (6.65)
Backup QB: Cooper Rush
The 2024 NFL MVP runner-up suffered another agonizing playoff defeat, this time to the Bills, but is still very clearly among the top three QBs in the eyes of oddsmakers. After all, Jackson passed for a ridiculous 41 TDs, threw only 4 INTs and rushed for 915 yards and another 4 TDs — and stayed healthy enough to start every game.
Many oddsmakers gave a bump to Jackson as well because of his unique abilities and how much the offense would need to change if new backup Rush was inserted.
“If Lamar goes down for a week or two, they’re not going to rebuild that offense and then you have Rush trying to run it,” one oddsmaker opined. “Lamar is a top-three QB and Rush is an OK backup. They run the offense totally around Lamar, so it’s a massive loss.”
The fear of Jackson’s running ability was another differentiating factor — and also helped RB Derrick Henry rush for 1,921 yards and 16 TDs.
“Lamar I certainly have up there as far as his rating,” one oddsmaker said. “I have him and Allen as the top two QBs, followed by Burrow and Mahomes.”
4. Jalen Hurts, Eagles (6.31)
Backup QB: Tanner McKee
Hurts led the Eagles to a resounding 40-22 Super Bowl LIX victory over Mahomes’ Chiefs, and moved from eighth in these rankings last year to fourth partially as a result. The Philadelphia QB was aided by RB Saquon Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing season, but also saved his best two games for the NFC championship game and Super Bowl — the second Super Bowl in which he’s outplayed Mahomes.
“Hurts I actually increased year over year,” one oddsmaker said. “I had him 4.5 points better than Kenny Pickett last year.”
Several oddsmakers mentioned that much like the top three QBs, Hurts’ rushing ability and the prevalence of the Tush Push increase his value.
“We don’t know much about McKee, but I think a lot of people overrated Hurts’ bad 2023 season and dropped him a little more than I did,” an oddsmaker said. “He’s up there with Lamar and Allen, right there behind Mahomes, in my opinion.”
One veteran oddsmaker wasn’t as impressed, only ranking Hurts four points better than McKee, noting, “The offense is essentially built around Hurts. They were a run-first and run-second team last year. Less of him throwing is a positive thing for Philadelphia. I think the kid behind him can actually play — he was so much better than Pickett.”
5. Joe Burrow, Bengals (5.60)
Backup QB: Jake Browning
The Bengals QB is coming off his most impressive statistical season, leading the league in yards (4,918) and passing TDs (43), while generating the league’s third-best QBR (74.7). However, there was a gap of more than half a point between his value to the spread and Hurts', in part because of how Browning has looked when Burrow has been injured recently.
“Browning did a good job coming in, but remember that Burrow could’ve been the MVP last year,” one oddsmaker noted. “Burrow consistently does everything right.”
Another oddsmaker voiced concern over Burrow’s injury history, saying, “I’m probably a little lower on him than I should be, but when he’s fully healthy he’s a top-five QB in the league.”
Burrow voiced his opinion that he wants to play more this preseason — and for good reason, as Cincinnati is a woeful 1-11 in the first two weeks of seasons under head coach Zac Taylor.
Full rankings
Biggest risers
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (+4.98 points ATS)
Backup QB: Kirk Cousins
The former Washington Huskies QB was a surprise draft pick at No. 8 overall in 2024 and came into the season ranked 3.92 points ATS behind presumptive starter Kirk Cousins. After going 1-2 in three starts and throwing 3 TDs and 3 INTs — compared to Cousins’ 1 TD and 9 INTs in his last five games — oddsmakers are giving Penix the slight nod over Cousins this season at 1.06 points ATS.
“This is the right move by the Falcons,” another oddsmaker who was higher on Penix said. “Cousins can’t run the ball, he’s just a pure passer. I put 2.5 for Penix. I think he could get up to 3. Cousins is a heck of a backup.”
This was one of the most consistent rankings among oddsmakers, with 10 of the 12 voters putting the spread difference between Penix and Cousins between zero and 1.5 points.
“I was even considering Cousins as a small favorite because of the experience,” an oddsmaker said. “Penix is another guy who has to prove it.”
Drake Maye, Patriots (+4.68 points ATS)
Backup QB: Josh Dobbs
Despite a bad offensive line and arguably the worst set of skill-position options in the NFL, Maye had a 58.6 QBR (17th) and impressed with his toughness and improvement over the course of last season. With WRs Stefon Diggs (free agency) and Kyle Williams (draft) and left tackle Will Campbell (draft) now in the fold, expectations are higher for the Patriots’ signal-caller who was -1.6 points ATS worse than starter Jacoby Brissett last year; this year, oddsmakers have him roughly a field goal better than Dobbs.
“There’s been some hype around Maye taking that second-year leap, and we’re a bit lower on Dobbs,” an oddsmaker said, explaining why he had Maye 5.5 points better than Dobbs. “We expect the Patriots to be competitive and Maye to be a big part of that.”
For other oddsmakers, they believe Maye played better than his 2024 statistics and the Patriots being favored in 11 games should lead to more wins this season, but they need to see it on the field first. An improvement in Maye’s rating could come early in the season.
From one oddsmaker: “I expect big improvement from Maye, but seeing is believing. Dobbs can’t make some of the throws Maye can, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re having this conversation next year and Maye is 4.5 points better.”
Jayden Daniels, Commanders (+3.75 points ATS)
Backup QB: Marcus Mariota
The only player among the three biggest risers that was a starter last season and had the same backup in Mariota, it’s easiest to make an apples-to-apples comparison with Daniels. And no other starter improved as much against the point spread from last year to this one than he did, going from +1.23 to +4.98 points ATS.
“He took a team that was 5-12 every year to the NFC championship game in his rookie year,” one oddsmaker admired. “It’s hard to see him not growing and getting better as he gains experience.”
Rankings for the Washington QB were also among the most consistent, with 11 of 12 oddsmakers putting Daniels as anywhere from 3.5 to 5.75 points ATS better than Mariota.
A couple of oddsmakers did caution that with more tape available on him and an offseason to prepare, he could take a minor step back as defensive coordinators adjust.
“At the beginning of last year, I had him at 1 point better than Mariota, now I have him at 4,” one oddsmaker said. “I don’t want to go too high after one season. There’s going to be a lot more tape on him, and the dreaded sophomore slump is always lurking.”
Biggest faller
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers (-1.55 points ATS)
Backup QB: Mason Rudolph
Oddsmakers weren’t quite sure what to make of Rodgers’ move to Pittsburgh, as he elicited one of the widest ranges of values of any player, ranging from half a point more valuable than backup Rudolph to 6.5 points more valuable.
“I remember his last year with the Packers, it looked like something was wrong,” one Vegas oddsmaker said. “He was just awful in that last [Green Bay] year. His thing was to throw the ball short, so he didn’t get hit — that was his main concern. He was a smart runner in his prime, just able do certain things that he’s unable to do now. He’s a QB manager right now — it’s what the Steelers do with all their guys.”
Many oddsmakers noted an adjustment downward after Rodgers’ subpar season last year with the New York Jets.
One oddsmaker: “I was still giving him the benefit of the doubt going into the season, and while he looked OK at times, he didn’t look like the Rodgers of old at any point last year. One more year older, it was time for a downgrade.”
Another: “I don’t think there’s this huge difference between him and Rudolph and what they’re worth at this point in Rodgers’ career.”
A third was a little harsher: "I think Rodgers has fallen off the cliff completely. His play wasn't great in New York, and I think he goes to a worse offense in Pittsburgh. Rudolph has experience playing under Mike Tomlin as well, so I don't think there is a significant drop-off."
The oddsmaker who had Rodgers as 6.5 points more valuable had a sunnier disposition when asked about Rodgers’ potential this year, saying in an email, “Even at this stage in Rodgers’ career, there is still a large disparity between him and Rudolph. The four-time league MVP landed with a stable organization that I believe will provide him the opportunity to turn the clock back a bit and regain the impressive play that we have witnessed from him so often over his career.”
The Steelers' win total of 8.5 is the most-bet over at several sportsbooks currently, so the public is certainly a believe in the Rodgers-Tomlin combination.
Other first-year starters and rookies
24. Cam Ward, Titans (2.6 points ATS)
25. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (2.02)
32. Tyler Shough, Saints (0.69)
The change from Will Levis as a backup for Ward in Tennessee to Brandon Allen actually increased Ward’s ATS rating, which, as one oddsmaker said, “goes to show you how bad Will Levis was.”
The No. 1 overall pick is almost certain to improve the Titans’ historic 2-15 ATS record in 2024 and several oddsmakers thought he’d be good as a rookie — they just weren’t sure if there was enough talent around him.
“I’m interested to see what he can do,” one oddsmaker said. “I think he mentally has the right attitude and a great work ethic to go along with the physical tools. I think there’s a recipe for success there.”
McCarthy was one of the most polarizing QBs to rank in the NFL, as he ranged from worth a point less than Sam Howell to 5.25 points more.
From the Vegas oddsmaker that ranked him worse: “Until he plays, I don’t know how I can rate him better than Howell. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a bust. Time will tell. You can say Howell isn’t the best QB, but he’s already started NFL games.”
From another: “There was a point when Howell was the starter in Washington that he was leading the league in passing yards. Any QB that can be halfway decent will be better under Kevin O’Connell. Maybe JJ has a 1-point edge, but until we see it any one of those guys can flourish in that scheme. I don’t think at this point that there’s much of a difference.”
Other oddsmakers thought the infrastructure in Minnesota would help to boost McCarthy, and thought his ceiling was much higher than Howell’s.
“I think McCarthy’s going to be really, really good in this offense with weapons all over the place. You’ve seen what KOC has done the last few seasons with Sam Darnold and making Josh Dobbs a competent QB.”
For the Saints, and presumed starting QB Tyler Shough, oddsmakers don’t have a ton of great things to say, with barely a difference between Shough and Spencer Rattler. One oddsmaker was taking matters into his own hands, saying, “I personally have invested heavily on the Saints’ under and bet a number of games against them. I think they’re more than likely going to be the worst team in the league and Tyler’s probably going to have a tough rookie year.”
Quick-hitters
7. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (5.10)
"I struggled with this one. Dak never looks like he’s worth that much, but when you look at the backups that’s why. Dak at -7 or -7.5 looks kind of high, but Joe Milton is the backup."
8. Jared Goff, Lions (5.06)
"I could be a little higher on Hendon Hooker than others because he could add something to the offense. I could be a hair light on Goff. I think he’s in a system that fits him much better. If you put Hooker in there and changed the offense a little bit, I think he’d look just as good."
10. C.J. Stroud, Texans (4.90)
"I’m expecting a bounce-back year for Houston and Stroud. He had one of the worst offensive lines in the league and injuries to the wide receivers. I think he’s right there in that 4.5-5 range. Davis Mills is a capable backup, but Stroud is significantly better."
T16. Caleb Williams, Bears (4.10)
"Their backup is that guy that played Division 4 [Tyson Bagent]. He’d be a poor man’s game manager. It’s hard to judge Williams because the Bears were so badly coached. Caleb didn’t turn the ball over, and most rookie QBs throw a lot of picks. He was behind a terrible offensive line. Everything about the Bears was stupid. It was an impossible situation."
"I had a 1-point upgrade from last year (after a 2-point difference last year). That point upgrade is more or less due to what I’m expecting to see due to changes in the offense with the new coaching staff. I think they can unlock some things with Caleb."
"It was a tough one to do. This is a big year, similar to Maye. I could have this next year and it could be 6 spending on how he progresses, if Caleb improves and overall team improves. Bears still have a lot of improvement to do. Bagent performed admirably, did an OK job."
"I probably have Bagent as a bottom-five backup QB on this list and I’m projecting a little more of a step up for Caleb with a better coach, offense and line. I’m maybe a bit higher on the Bears. Coach and offensive line are huge. A lot to like with Ben Johnson. Williams took a lot of unnecessary sacks, but he was under pressure constantly last season. I like their weapons a lot. If he doesn’t look good this year, it’ll be a clear sign that he wasn’t worth the No. 1 pick."
T16. Kyler Murray, Cardinals (4.10)
"I’m higher on Kyler, I didn’t downgrade him at all from last year. I think Arizona may surprise some people this year, but I do give some value to Jacoby Brissett as a backup, so maybe my number on him is a little higher than others."
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