Opinion - The ‘Art of the Deal’ author keeps getting out-negotiated by Putin and Xi

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

Fool me over and over? I might as well surrender.

Back in the day, even before he took office for the first time in 2017, President-elect Trump sent a clear message to Communist China and the world that he was not one to be hindered by convention or well-established protocols that no longer made sense — at least to him.

Thus, when he received a congratulatory telephone call from Taiwan’s then-president Tsai Ing-wen, herself only in office for eight months, he accepted it routinely and graciously, like any of the other good wishes received from world leaders. He dismissed the cautions from his advisers that, ever since President Jimmy Carter broke off diplomatic relations in 1979 with the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name), high-ranking American officials simply do not have direct contact with Taiwanese counterparts. He brusquely told those with the raised eyebrows that he would speak with anyone he chose to.

His refreshing message of defiance gave hope to Taiwanese and their supporters in the U.S. and around the world. The new sheriff in town, it seemed, would do a lot less diplomatic pussyfooting regarding Beijing’s supposed sensitivities about all things Taiwan.

For the next four years, Trump was supported in his more direct approach — toward both Taiwan and China — by a superb national security team of truth-telling China “hawks.” These included Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, successive National Security Advisors John Bolton and Robert O’Brien, their deputy Matt Pottinger, Assistant Secretary Randy Shriver, and a range of other mid-level foreign policy and national security officials who shared clear-eyed views about the manifold threats posed by the regime of the Chinese Communist Party.

After his second election, the new incoming Trump administration did not announce a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s new president, William Lai Ching-te — either because Lai had been advised by U.S. officials not to initiate one and thereby irritate China, or because (less likely) the call occurred but was not publicized.

A less ambiguous explanation pertains to the Trump team’s decision not to allow Lai to make a New York stopover during his planned trip to South America, now canceled by the embarrassed Taiwanese president.  Trump’s rejection of Lai’s brief pass-though visit breaks several years of U.S. tradition, a favorite Trump practice. But this disruption, instead of advancing Taiwan’s short-term advantage and America’s long-term interest, represents a significant step backward in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

It was clearly taken to set the stage for Trump-Xi trade talks and Trump’s hoped-for visit to Beijing. There may be an even more sinister explanation for cancellation of Lai’s travel. Purely conjectural at this point is the possibility that intelligence sources detected a Chinese threat against Lai and recommended a prudent cancellation of his travel, with public reports from both the U.S. and Taiwan sides providing a convenient cover story.

Even the most innocent explanation of Lai’s aborted stopover is an inauspicious indication of how Trump will calculate his balancing of U.S. interests between China and Taiwan. It may also reflect the role of Trump’s undersecretary of policy at the Pentagon, Elbridge Colby, who long opposed the Biden administration’s flow of arms to Ukraine as a diversion of resources Taiwan needs to deter or defend against Chinese aggression.

At his confirmation hearing, Colby said that Taiwan is “important” to U.S. interests, but “not existential.”  It is a new and cramped understanding of U.S. interests which depend heavily on the international perception of U.S. credibility and its incalculable value in reassuring allies and deterring adversaries.

The danger of diminished credibility was demonstrated with Biden’s disastrous abandonment of Afghanistan, which was followed within months by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The harm to America’s reputation was only partially undone by Trump’s dramatic strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last month. But doubts about U.S. credibility remain because the Iran operation, while hardly a pinprick like so many prior military strikes, may have been a one-off, not to be repeated, and Iran defiantly continues restoring and advancing its nuclear program.

The dangerous Taiwan analogue would be, for example, a Chinese seizure of Quemoy or some other Taiwanese island, or a Chinese blockade, followed by a largely symbolic U.S. military strike that fails to convince Beijing to back off.

Washington’s dilemma then would be whether to escalate the kinetics and risk derailing the trade talks and Trump’s Beijing visit, or to accept the new status quo. It illustrates the increased leverage Trump has foolishly granted Xi and the erosion of diplomatic standing he has gratuitously inflicted on Taiwan. China has its own cards to play, of course, including withholding rare-earth minerals critically-needed by the U.S. defense industry. The U.S. cannot afford to buckle under those pressures without further eroding overall security credibility.

Trump only recently acknowledged that he was frequently taken in by Putin’s empty promises about ending the war in Ukraine — just as he strongly implied in 2019 that Xi had deceived him about the nature and origins of COVID. Yet, in both cases, he returned time and again to placing his trust in the dictators’ words and relying on their nonexistent good faith.

Worse, the converse of his credulity with America’s authoritarian adversaries is reflected in his apparent contempt for our democratic friends and allies in Ukraine and Taiwan. While Trump’s recent comments indicate he may have finally seen the light on Putin, his pursuit of a trade deal and quest for a China invitation suggest another double-win for China. China has managed to achieve these so-called win-wins during every U.S. presidential trip since Richard Nixon’s. In exchange for allowing a Trump visit this time, Beijing will extract added U.S. concessions during the trade talks–beyond, e.g., Trump’s “flexibility on Tik-Tok, at the same time it benefits from U.S. deference to China on Taiwan.

To borrow Trump’s assessment of most of his predecessors, this is the way to Make America “Stupid” Again.

The only way Trump can restore America’s lost credibility and deter a tragic miscalculation by China is to declare clearly and publicly that he will commit all the military force necessary to defend Taiwan.

Joseph A. Bosco served as China country director in the office of the secretary of defense,2005-2006. He is a member of the advisory board of the Vandenberg Coalition and the Global Taiwan Institute.

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