Redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms is at the center of the political universe this week, and Vice President JD Vance's visit to Indiana on Thursday is a big signal the White House isn't backing off the strategy anytime soon.
Vance’s visit to a state to ask lawmakers to redistrict is a significant escalation from the White House, which was pressuring Texas Republicans behind closed doors to redraw the state's congressional map.
Republicans could draw 10 or more new seats that advantage the party ahead of the midterms. Later this year, Ohio will be legally forced to remap the state, potentially giving Republicans up to three more seats there. And talks are underway in Missouri, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
Trump’s team is putting “maximum pressure on everywhere where redistricting is an option and it could provide a good return on investment,” according to a person familiar with the team’s thinking and granted anonymity to describe it.
While Democratic efforts to counter Texas are well underway, including lawmakers who continue to deny Republicans in Austin quorum over a new congressional map that could net up to five seats for the GOP, the party’s options are far more limited.
Republicans know it, too.
“In an arms race where there’s a race to gerrymander the most, there’s not a scenario where they have more seats than we do,” a GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak about party strategy, told POLITICO last week.
That’s because a handful of Democratic-leaning states — including California — handed mapmaking power to independent commissions instead of leaving it in the hands of the state legislatures. States where Democrats retain the power to gerrymander, like Illinois and Maryland, have very little room to draw more advantageous maps than their current ones.
"If the Democrats want to roll the dice in Maryland, let them roll the dice," said Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the state's lone Republican in Congress. "I look forward to having more Republican colleagues."
Democrats say it's too soon to dismiss the efforts happening in California and New York, whatever legal or logistical hurdles stand in their way.
“It’s a more complicated endeavor in some of the bigger states,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Commission. “That doesn’t make it any less real.”
As it stands, Republican state lawmakers nationwide oversee 55 Democratic congressional seats, and Democratic state majorities oversee just 35 held by the GOP, according to an analysis by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which this week became the first party-aligned group to endorse mid-cycle redistricting.
Many Democrats say it’s time to fight back, even with limited options. The DLCC, for example, is arguing that “Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serious about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting,” according to a recent memo shared with POLITICO.
Even with an advantage, it’s no sure bet for Republicans.
Redrawing maps mid-cycle comes with risks, since the 2020 census data underpinning current maps is outdated. In some cases that creates a so-called dummymander, where a redraw intended to help one party actually favors the other. Democrats already vowed to fight the new map in Texas — and likely elsewhere — in court, and they say Republicans are pushing for redraws because they have steep odds of keeping control of the House next year.
“I can’t think of a weaker position for a president to be in than sending his vice president around state to state to beg them to gerrymander and cheat on their behalf,” Bisognano said. “Being in a position where their legislation and popularity is so low that this is their only option is breathtaking.”
Within the GOP, some are still hesitant to take up the issue. Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Braun told POLITICO on Tuesday there are “no commitments” to redraw the map.
But Texas lawmakers, too, were hesitant until the White House got involved. Now, they stand ready to pass a new map once they can get Democratic lawmakers to return.
Jordan Wolman and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.
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