A new forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is out — and not much has changed.
Colorado State University meteorologists are sticking with their July prediction for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season: 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes — three of them expected to become major. That count includes the four storms that have already formed. For comparison, a typical season brings about 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
The update comes as the season nears its peak, with tropical activity ramping up in August and September.
It also follows a relatively quiet stretch for North Carolina. Of course last year, the state in September would be monitoring Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region before battering the Appalachians — triggering flash floods, landslides, and killing hundreds. So far this season, no storms have directly impacted the state.
But that may not last. The southeastern coast has already seen two tropical storms and two potential disturbances. Now, forecasters are closely watching another developing system, which could pose a significant threat to the Carolinas as the most active weeks of hurricane season begin.
What are the chances of North Carolina getting hit by hurricane in 2025?
CSU calculated the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles for each state from Texas to Maine. Here are the probabilities of the following tracking within 50 miles of North Carolina:
Named storm: 73%
Hurricane: 43%
Probability of named storm tracking within 50 miles of US states: See list
Florida: 89%
North Carolina: 74%
Louisiana: 71%
Georgia: 68%
Texas: 67%
Alabama: 63%
South Carolina: 63%
Mississippi: 59%
Connecticut: 25%
Delaware: 25%
Probability of hurricane tracking within 50 miles of US states: See list
Florida: 61%
North Carolina: 43%
Louisiana: 43%
Texas: 41%
Georgia: 34%
South Carolina: 33%
Alabama: 31%
Mississippi: 32%
Connecticut: 9%
Delaware: 7% chance
Brandi Addison writes about weather across the country for the USA TODAY Network's Weather Connect. Reach her at baddison@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Will a hurricane impact North Carolina in 2025? High odds, forecasters say
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