By Monica Machicao and Lucinda Elliott
LA PAZ (Reuters) -The rise in power and influence of the Indigenous Aymara in Bolivia has been the country's biggest political shift of recent decades, driven by the success of former President Evo Morales and the leftist party he founded.
But as Bolivia prepares for a general election on August 17, it seems increasingly clear that Indigenous voters are abandoning the ruling Movement to Socialism, or MAS, the party that once claimed to champion them.
Voters from inner-city Aymara and Quechua communities say their loyalty to MAS has been eroded over the country's worst economic crisis in decades, and younger Bolivians in particular say questions of identity now loom less important.
"Most Indigenous people are having to deal with how to earn money," said Sayuri Loza, an Aymara social media influencer and daughter of Remedios Loza, the first Indigenous woman elected to Bolivia's national legislature.
"The need for economic stability, for education, for healthcare — none of those are being met," said the 42-year-old, who does not plan to cast her vote for MAS.
Bolivia has the highest Indigenous population proportionally of any country in Latin America, at about 62%, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Made up of diverse ethnic groups, the largest are Aymara and Quechua, long the backbone of MAS, which has dominated the country's politics for nearly two decades.
Now support for leftist and MAS-affiliated candidates is trailing the right-wing opposition.
A July survey by Ipsos CIESMORI showed Andronico Rodriguez, the leading leftist contender, with just 6% support in July, from 19% earlier this year. Another candidate of Aymara heritage, Eva Copa, stood down from the race last week. Such is the rout that the official MAS candidate is polling around 2%, while Rodriguez has distanced himself from the party.
President Luis Arce is not seeking reelection.
Nearly half of the electorate is under 35 - a generation that has known no political era other than that shaped by Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous leader, and Arce, his successor.
Younger voters like Lirio Fuertes, 29, who runs a fashion brand and teaches the Quechua language on TikTok, said the party's promises fell short.
"Indigenous identity was paraded in speeches, flags, and festivals," said Fuertes, who on social media goes by T'ikita Wara, meaning little flower in Quechua. "But it never translated into better healthcare, education, or justice."
Loza, a historian who promotes Indigenous traditions on social media, also said public services and financial stability rather than her identity were the key drivers of her vote.
Bolivia's emerging middle class, much of it Indigenous, has moved beyond identity politics, and the younger generation spanned diverse professions, said Bolivian sociologist Renzo Abruzzese.
"Bolivia's social structure has transformed," he said.
TENSIONS EMERGE
The 2006 election of Morales was a historic moment for a nation where Indigenous groups for centuries had felt like second-class citizens. They were forbidden, until the mid-1950s, from entering the square outside the presidential palace. Serfdom was only abolished in 1945.
Before his first inauguration, Morales received the chieftain's staff at the pre-Inca site of Tiwanaku, pledging to grant rights to the Amerindian majority.
"Today begins a new era for the native peoples of the world," Morales said at the time, surrounded by Indigenous activists who had traveled from as far as the United States.
Tensions first emerged with some Indigenous groups in 2011, when Morales wanted to build a highway through Indigenous territory in the Bolivian Amazon. Protests broke out and relations between MAS and those groups suffered.
Morales, who served three terms until 2019, is barred from running after a failed attempt to change the constitution to allow a fourth term.
He is now in hiding in the coca-growing region of the Chapare, after a court in December issued a warrant for his arrest on child abuse and terrorism charges. The former president denies the allegations.
Instead of standing for hope, Morales is now associated with disillusionment, Fuertes said.
"Sadly, Evo Morales and this radicalized group that refuses to relinquish power have caused the Indigenous movement to be associated with anti-democracy, with corruption and abuse," she said.
MAS did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. The official MAS candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, said last month that the problems in Arce's administration had been "identified."
"There are people who believe in us and trust us," he told EFE in an interview last month.
'WALLET VOTE'
This election comes as Bolivia faces its worst economic crisis since the mid-1980s. Natural gas exports have plummeted, inflation is at a 40-year high, and dollars are scarce.
The boliviano currency has lost half of its value on the black market this year, even as the official exchange rate has been held artificially steady by government intervention.
Urban, business-minded Indigenous voters were questioning the relevance of MAS, and many blamed the ruling party's spend-to-grow model for the downturn, said Quechua political analyst, Andres Gomez.
"The 'wallet vote' is starting to outweigh the identity vote," said Gomez.
It was still unclear, he said, how that would manifest on election day.
Polls show conservative contenders Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga leading the race, but neither commands more than 30% support, while around a third of Bolivians remain undecided.
If no candidate wins the August vote outright the election will head to a runoff scheduled for October 19.
Some Indigenous voters who are passing over MAS were also skeptical of the alternatives.
"The right doesn't understand Indigenous Bolivia either," Loza said.
(Reporting by Monica Machicao in La Paz and Lucinda Elliott in Montevideo. Editing by Daina Beth Solomon and Rosalba O'Brien)
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