2025 SEC betting preview: Favorite over/unders, Heisman bet and projections for every team

The Southeastern Conference enters the 2025 college football season in unfamiliar territory. For the past two seasons, the College Football Playoff National Championship has come and gone without an SEC team on the field. That might not sound like a crisis to some, but for a conference that placed a team in eight straight title games before that? It feels like an identity crisis.

The swagger is still there. The talent pipeline never slowed. But after watching the Big Ten steal the spotlight — with Michigan and Washington reaching the playoff final in 2023 season — the SEC’s top contenders aren’t just looking to win, they’re looking to restore order.

Let’s not overcomplicate things: Georgia, Texas and Alabama are absolutely loaded. All three open the season inside the top six of most power ratings and enter 2025 as legitimate national title threats, and they’re not alone.

Florida, Auburn and Oklahoma all made aggressive moves in the portal and returned key pieces on both sides of the ball. In total, eight SEC teams rank inside the top 25 in preseason SP+ (a popular metric for team success) — more than any other conference.

This league has never lacked storylines, and 2025 won’t break that tradition. With coaching changes, quarterback battles and revenge games all over the schedule, it’s shaping up to be a classic SEC season.

Here are a few betting futures that stand out to me (odds courtesy of BetMGM):

Georgia to win the SEC (+300)

Forget the noise, Georgia is favored in every regular-season game on its schedule and by more than a touchdown in all but one (Oct. 18 at Texas). The Dawgs return 14 starters, including former five-star QB Gunner Stockton, and bring back four of five starters on an offensive line that was among the nation’s best last season.

Could a team like LSU catch fire? Sure. But if you’re betting on the SEC, it’s hard to imagine a championship game without the Dawgs barking on one side of the field. Georgia has made the SEC title game in five of the last seven seasons.

Ole Miss to win the SEC (16-1)

This one’s spicy. The Rebels avoid Alabama and Texas entirely while getting both LSU and Florida at home, which is a massive scheduling win.

The Rebels could realistically finish the regular season with just one loss (Oct. 18 at Georgia). I’ve got them as 3.5-point favorites over LSU in Oxford, and if they win that one, this ticket becomes gold. Keep in mind: Lane Kiffin’s offense ranked No. 4 in EPA/play last year and brought in the 12th-best recruiting class to juice up another season.

Oklahoma under 7.5 season wins (-145)

Projected wins: 6.47

Oklahoma enters 2025 as a revamped squad. After a season derailed by injuries, the Sooners’ 13th-ranked recruiting class has sparked optimism — but are we buying in too quickly?

The talent is there, but the schedule is brutal. Oklahoma will face Michigan, Texas, Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss, and even the “Tier 2” matchups — road trips to Tennessee and South Carolina — are highly losable. It’s tough to chart a clear path to eight wins, making a fade on the Sooners an appealing play.

Mississippi State under 1.5 conference wins (-145)

Projected season wins: 3.88

It’s never fun laying juice on a season-long wager, but the value in this bet is too good to pass up.

Mississippi State enters the 2025 season ranked 28th in returning production, but there isn’t much to get excited about if you’re a Bulldogs fan. With a season win projection set at 3.5, it might look like I’m slightly higher on this team (projected 3.88 by my numbers) … but don’t be fooled — this bump doesn’t come from their chances to win in conference play.

On top of their lack of talent, Mississippi State’s conference schedule does it no favors, as my projections make the Bulldogs double-digit underdogs in every SEC matchup. The only two games I project them to be under two-touchdown 'dogs are at Arkansas (Nov. 1) and at Missouri (Nov. 15). I’ll gladly take the under 1.5 conference wins.

An alternative way to play this at BetMGM is to wager on Mississippi State with the fewest conference wins at -125 odds.

Heisman pick: Arch Manning (+800)

Sure, the last name brings attention. But there are plenty of reasons beyond legacy to take him seriously. Texas now plays in the SEC — a conference tied to ESPN/ABC through a $3 billion, 10-year media deal. And that means non-stop exposure.

Manning will face SEC QBs like Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and DJ Lagway (Florida), but Texas is an underdog in just two games this season, giving Arch a manageable path. He filled in for Quinn Ewers last year and completed 68.2% of his passes, adding two rushing scores in limited SEC play. Manning's ability to steal the show while winning games for an explosive team should push his name through the Heisman chatter all season long.

Season outlook and team projections

The SEC has run through Georgia for quite some time, but this season feels different. Yes, the Bulldogs return 14 starters, but Texas stands in the way with the Heisman frontrunner, LSU lurks with the No. 2 quarterback on NFL Draft boards, Alabama boasts the nation’s No. 3 recruiting class, and Lane Kiffin is coming off three straight 10-win seasons.

Given this overall level of talent, the conference doesn’t really separate into objectively “good” or “bad” teams until the very bottom (sorry, Mississippi State). That sets the stage for plenty of chaos on the road in conference play.

A team like Tennessee could have a very real shot to take down Georgia in their Sept. 13 matchup.