COLUMBIA, S.C. (WCBD) — As the field for the 2026 governor’s race in South Carolina begins to take shape, an early poll shows that each party’s nomination remains up for grabs.
The poll of 1,200 registered voters was conducted between July 21 and July 25 by Targoz Market Research, with a margin of error of 2.77%. 51% of respondents self-identified as Republicans, 33% as Democrats, and 15% as Independents.
The survey found that U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace has a slight edge in the race for the Republican nomination, with 16% of respondents saying they would vote for her if the GOP primary were held today. That was just one point ahead of Attorney General Alan Wilson, who had 15% support.
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette was next with 8%, followed by U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman with 6%, and Upstate Sen. Josh Kimbrell with 3%.
More than half of the 572 respondents who said they would likely vote in the Republican primary were undecided, however.
“We’re really excited to see the number of undecideds,” said Michael Burris, CEO of the South Carolina Policy Council, a conservative think tank that commissioned the poll. “It should shape for a really good and competitive race.”
Mace is the only named candidate who has not yet formally entered the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R), though she is widely expected to announce her bid later this summer.
Although the primary is still eleven months away, the jockeying for President Donald Trump’s support has already begun, with several of the candidates emphasizing their loyalty to the president.
54% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate if Trump supported that person. One-third said it would have no impact on their decision, and 7% said it would make them less likely to vote for that person.
It remains unclear whether Trump will throw his support behind anyone in the crowded field. If he does, it could set up a potential proxy battle between the president and his last-standing rival in the 2024 GOP presidential primary race — former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
Haley, who served as United Nations ambassador during Trump’s first term, has endorsed Norman’s gubernatorial bid. The Rock Hill congressman was the only member of the state’s congressional delegation to support Haley’s candidacy before she ultimately dropped out of the race.
The field of candidates seeking the Democratic nomination is less solidified, with Rep. Jermaine Johnson of Richland County being the only one so far to publicly express interest in running.
Expectedly, the poll found that 83% of respondents who said they would likely vote in the Democratic primary were undecided.
Johnson and State Sen. Jeffrey Graham tied with 5% support, followed by State Sen. Russell Ott, former state Rep. Mandy Powers Norrell, and State Sen. Ed Sutton with 2% support each.
“We asked around…those names kept coming up over and over again,” Burris explained. “But you know, I think that the Democratic Party has some feeling out to do, and they’re going to take their time and see how that goes.”
The large percentage of undecided voters means candidates still have plenty of time to make their case to voters on the issues, Burris said.
“We’ve seen over the past few years in national elections [and] state elections, we have a more informed and educated electorate, and so I think they’re waiting to see how these candidates attack the policies that matter to them most,” he said.
Eliminating the state income tax has emerged as a top platform issue on the GOP side, a policy the poll found is popular among South Carolina voters.
The Palmetto State has the highest top personal tax income rate in the southeast, but the House approved a bill in the final weeks of the legislative session to gradually lower it to an eventual single, flat rate of 1.99% for all tax brackets.
73% of respondents in the poll said they support phasing out the state income tax entirely over the next several years, and 14% said accelerating tax cuts to do so should be a top priority for the state’s budget surplus.
“This is something that, I mean, certainly every Republican candidate is going to be harping on,” Burris said, adding that the South Carolina Policy Council believes lowering the income tax is a crucial step toward maintaining competitiveness in the business sector.
The poll also measured voters’ attitudes toward a host of other issues, from the formation of a statewide initiative modeled after the federal government’s Department of Government Efficiency to the tariffs levied on imported goods to expanding nuclear energy capabilities.
Overall, a majority (60%) of the 1,200 respondents surveyed said they were satisfied with the direction South Carolina is going, while 38% said they were dissatisfied.
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