Tropical Storm Erin is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean. It is expected to become the first major hurricane of the 2025 season by the end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As the storm develops, experts are closely watching the path of the storm. Could it impact Tennessee?
Though the scenario seems unlikely, East Tennessee and Western North Carolina were hard hit by Hurricane Helene in September 2024. The deadly storm and following floods heavily damaged the region's infrastructure and killed 18 people in Tennessee alone.
Cleanup from Helene is ongoing in East Tennessee as the community continues to recover nearly a year later.
Could another tropical storm hit Tennessee?
There's a one in five chance of a tropical storm reaching Tennessee in 2025, slightly above average from past years, Colorado State University research shows.
The probability of a tropical storm in Tennessee for the 2025 season is 21%, which is greater than the 141-year historical average of 17%, according to Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
There have been 26 tropical storms within 50 miles of the Volunteer State from 1880 to 2020.
Compared to other states in the Southeast, the chances of tropical storms hitting the Volunteer State appear especially slim. Florida has a 92% chance of seeing a named storm in 2025 and a 35% chance of seeing a major hurricane.
Tennessee's neighbors to the south, Alabama and Georgia, have a 72% and 67% chance, respectively, of being hit by a named storm this season, according to Colorado State University research. Mississippi has a 62% of seeing a named storm in 2025.
Was Helene the only named storm to hit East Tennessee?
No. While Knoxville and East Tennessee don't regularly experience hurricanes, Hurricane Helene was not the first or the only storm to strike.
Beyond Helene, other recent storms in Knoxville include Hurricane Nicole in 2022, Hurricanes Fred and Ida in 2021, and Hurricane Zeta in 2020, according to NOAA historical data.
Where could Tropical Storm Erin hit?
According to current storm tracker models, Tropical Storm Erin will not come near the Volunteer State.
The latest spaghetti models of the storm indicate that Erin is likely to take a northern turn, avoiding making landfall in the United States.
Where is Tropical Storm Erin?
As of Aug. 13, Tropical Storm Erin is about 1,305 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is traveling westward with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour.
When is hurricane season?
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, according to the NOAA. Hurricane Helene brought significant flooding to East Tennessee on Sept. 27, 2024.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models: Could it impact Tennessee?
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