LOS ANGELES — California Gov. Gavin Newsom faces a major hurdle in his quest to revamp his state’s congressional lines, according to a new poll: Californians’ deep support for its current independent redistricting commission.
By nearly a two-to-one margin, voters prefer keeping an independent line-drawing panel to determine the state’s House seats, the latest POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey found. Just 36 percent of respondents back returning congressional redistricting authority to state lawmakers.
“It’s not surprising, in the sense that California has voted twice for this independent review commission not all that long ago,” said Jack Citrin, a veteran political science professor at UC Berkeley and partner on the poll. “And there’s a lot of mistrust and cynicism about politicians and the Legislature. That’s reflected here as well.”
California Democrats are plowing ahead with a high-stakes gambit to redraw the state’s lines to counter a proposed gerrymander by Texas Republicans spurred by President Donald Trump. California officials are expected to unveil newly redrawn maps at the end of this week that would position Democrats to nab five extra seats, neutralizing the Texas redraw.
Newsom, who kicks off the campaign in earnest on Thursday, has cast himself as both reluctant and eager to engage in an escalating redistricting war. He and fellow Democrats have repeatedly emphasized how Texas Republicans started this fight and vowed that any measure to overhaul the districts in California would only be “triggered” if Texas moves ahead. (Texas Democrats have fled the state to stall the vote on the GOP-friendly maps, although Gov. Greg Abbott said he will continue to call for new special legislative sessions until the Democrats return.)
California Democrats have also promised not to do away with the state’s independent redistricting commission entirely. Instead, they plan to ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment that would put new maps approved by the Legislature in effect for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 election cycles, according to legislative sources familiar with the draft measure. The independent panel would then resume its role as the state’s line-drawer after the 2030 census.
The POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab survey findings underscore why Democrats are stopping short of jettisoning the commission. The poll shows independent redistricting enjoys widespread popularity among the general public, with 64 percent support overall, and across party affiliations.
Independent voters were the most enthusiastic backers of the panel, with 72 percent in favor of the commission keeping its line-drawing authority. Support among Republicans and Democrats was roughly equal — 66 percent and 61 percent, respectively — marking a rare spot of bipartisan agreement in this hyper-polarized political moment.
“That surprised me a little bit, given that this is being pushed so heavily by Newsom and by the Democratic Party nationally that we have to combat Texas,” Citrin said.
Older respondents were more likely to favor the independent commission, with 77 percent of people aged 80 and older in favor of keeping the status quo. Still, a healthy majority of younger voters, including 62 percent of Gen Z and millennials, supported the commission as well.
The independent commission’s popularity has grown over time. Californians narrowly approved the creation of an independent panel in 2008, taking the power to draw the boundaries of legislative districts away from lawmakers and giving it to a citizen commission.
Two years later, voters had further warmed to independent redistricting, with 61 percent supporting a measure to give the panel authority over congressional lines as well. A measure to repeal the commission was also handily defeated that year.
To overcome the popularity of good governance election reforms, Democrats this year are betting on a campaign that will frame the new maps as striking a blow against Trump, who lost the state by 20 points last year.
“I think the voters will approve it. I think the voters understand what’s at stake,” Newsom said in a news conference last Friday. “We live in the most un-Trump state in America.”
Last week, legislators were briefed on an internal survey by Newsom’s pollster, David Binder, which found a redistricting measure with multiple elements — including designating the new maps as temporary and only valid if Texas proceeds — started with slim majority support (52 percent). It grew in popularity when the messaging became more overtly partisan. Democrats have already signaled that strategy, trotting out talking points about “fighting fire with fire” and “rejecting Trump’s power grab.”
Still, the public wariness of lawmaker-drawn maps captured in the POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll suggests an uphill climb for Newsom and Democrats.
“If this is the starting point, then they will have a struggle,” Citrin said.
The survey also looked at the opinion of policy influencers, a group of roughly 500 POLITICO Pro subscribers who are deeply versed in the state’s political landscape. Their views are largely in line with the general electorate: 61 percent support the independent commission while 39 percent back lines being drawn by lawmakers.
Among influencers, the partisan divide is more stark. Republican insiders, who are likely keenly aware that multiple GOP-held seats are at risk, overwhelmingly support the commission, with 91 percent. The panel also enjoys strong support among 79 percent of independents.
Democratic insiders are the sole group to back legislators holding the redistricting pen — and just barely; 51 percent support returning the redrawing powers to lawmakers, while 49 percent want to keep the commission.
This project consists of two separate opinion studies of the California electorate and policy influencers in the state, fielded by TrueDot, the AI-accelerated research platform, in collaboration with the Citrin Center and Possibility Lab at UC Berkeley and POLITICO. The public opinion study, made possible in part with support from the California Constitution Center, was conducted in the field between July 28 and Aug. 12.
The sample of 1,445 registered voters was selected at random by Verasight, with interviews conducted in English and Spanish, and includes an oversample of Hispanic voters. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus/minus 2.6 percent. The policy influencer study was conducted from July 30 to Aug. 11, among 512 subscribers to POLITICO Pro, and the modeled error estimate is plus/minus 3.7 percent.
Comments