Could Texans feel the eye of a storm this hurricane season? Experts say the state could see impacts, though the track and strength of individual storms will vary widely.
Colorado State University researchers released their final forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season last week, on Aug. 6, and are sticking with their July prediction for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season: 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes — three of them expected to become major. That count includes the five storms that have already formed. For comparison, a typical season brings about 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.
The update comes as the season nears its peak, with tropical activity ramping up in August and September.
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For Texas, the season has been relatively quiet so far — a sharp contrast to mid-August last year, when the state was already six weeks past the final storm to impact the state, which saw the two earliest storms of the 2024 hurricane season.
In late June 2024, Tropical Storm Alberto threatened the Texas, and by early July, the Lone Star State was tracking one one of the hardest-hit hurricanes of the season — Hurricane Beryl, which became the earliest Category 5 storm on record before making its third landfall near Matagorda. After that, the remainder of the season was relatively mild for Texas, with no other storm threatening the state.
No storms have directly affected Texas this season, but forecasters warn the season is ramping up as it nears its peak months in August and September.
Currently tracking: Invest 98L heads toward Texas as Tropical Storm Erin strengthens. Will either hit Texas?
What are the chances of Texas getting hit by hurricane in 2025?
CSU calculated the probability of a named storm, hurricane and major hurricane tracking within 50 miles for each state from Texas to Maine. Here are the probabilities of the following tracking within 50 miles of Texas:
Named storm: 66%
Hurricane: 41%
Major hurricane: 18%
Probability of named storm tracking within 50 miles of US states: See list
Florida: 89%
North Carolina: 73%
Louisiana: 71%
Georgia: 68%
Alabama: 63%
South Carolina: 63%
Mississippi: 58%
Connecticut: 25%
Delaware: 25%
Probability of hurricane tracking within 50 miles of US states: See list
Florida: 61%
North Carolina: 43%
Louisiana: 43%
Texas: 41%
Georgia: 34%
South Carolina: 33%
Alabama: 31%
Mississippi: 32%
Connecticut: 9%
Delaware: 7% chance
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Will a hurricane hit Texas in 2025? High odds, experts say
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