Democrats are starting to finally see their path back to power in the Senate — if they squint really, really hard.
Party leaders have landed top recruits in Ohio and North Carolina, both pickup opportunities. They hope a snowball effect will push their favorite candidate in Maine, another offensive target, into that race in a state former Vice President Kamala Harris won.
There are other, rockier potential targets: Perhaps they could finally win Texas, where Republicans are locked in a messy, expensive primary. Or Alaska, where senior Democrats are courting a dynamic former congresswoman. Or maybe, they hope, Iowa could become a purple state again.
There's no doubt that Republicans are still favored to hold onto the Senate after next year’s midterms. Democrats need to flip four GOP-held seats while also holding onto states that President Donald Trump won like Michigan and Georgia. Everything would have to go perfectly for them to pull it off — and this is not an era when things have typically gone perfectly for Democrats.
Still, Democrats are increasingly optimistic after former Sen. Sherrod Brown decided to run for his old seat and former Gov. Roy Cooper launched a bid in North Carolina.
“I’m not going to say we’re taking back the Senate right now, but it looks more possible than it ever was,” said Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.). “We’re recruiting great candidates and it looks like they’re not really doing the same. The map is expanding week by week.”
Earlier this year, many Democrats were pessimistic that Brown would run again — and without him, Ohio was considered hopelessly out of reach. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer doggedly pursued Brown anyway, repeatedly calling and meeting with him. Brown is expected to officially launch his campaign against Republican Sen. Jon Husted any day now.
Brown, a frumpy populist who won three terms in the Senate even as Ohio grew increasingly redder, lost reelection by fewer than 4 percentage points last year. What makes Democrats nonetheless hopeful is that Brown kept the contest close even as Trump carried the state by 11 percentage points. With Trump in the White House but not on the ballot, they hope, next year’s midterm elections will almost certainly be a better political moment for Democrats.
“Unless you believe we’re headed into another negative environment for Democrats again, this is almost by definition a toss-up race,” said an Ohio Democratic strategist who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about a still-developing race.
Schumer also worked to persuade Cooper, a popular former two-term governor, to run. Cooper broke fundraising records when he announced his Senate bid and is now leading Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley in early polls.
Schumer’s recruitment efforts are reflective of a larger strategy to stake his party’s chances in several key states on well-established, older candidates, even as much of the Democratic base hungers for generational change. Along with Cooper, 68, and Brown, 72, Democrats are hoping to lure Maine Gov. Janet Mills, 77, into the race against Republican Sen. Susan Collins, 72.
The Democrats’ game plan doubles, in theory, as a way to avoid costly and divisive primaries. Cooper effectively boxed out most of the North Carolina field by keeping the door open to a run, and the sole other Democratic candidate, former Rep. Wiley Nickel, exited the race after Cooper launched his bid. Brown is also expected to clear the field in Ohio.
Nickel told POLITICO his initial decision to run was about “fighting for the best chance to flip North Carolina’s Senate seat,” but with Cooper getting in, he said the former governor “gives Democrats our best shot to flip this seat.”
The success that Senate Democrats have had in luring battle-tested candidates into the arena stands in contrast to Republicans’ efforts this cycle.
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, widely seen as a strong potential contender to oust Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, decided against a run. Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu similarly opted against a bid for the seat left open by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, even after winning Trump’s support.
Republicans have also lost an incumbent to retirement — and there could be more.
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis announced he was not running for reelection after Trump attacked him for voting against advancing his megabill. In Iowa, Sen. Joni Ernst has not formally announced she is seeking reelection, and the White House saw it necessary to encourage her to try for another term. Collins got her dream job as Senate Appropriations chair only to see her power undermined by Trump, and Democrats are praying she could be next, though she’s said she intends to run again.
Democrats are also hopeful that contentious GOP primaries could bolster their chances to hold Ossoff’s seat in Georgia and turn Texas blue if MAGA darling Attorney General Ken Paxton ousts incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn as polling indicates he might.
“From nasty, expensive primaries to a string of embarrassing recruitment failures and a toxic agenda, Senate Republicans are falling apart at the seams,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle.
But Democrats have their own crowded primaries to contend with. An ambitious field of three well-funded Democrats in Michigan is threatening to divert resources from defeating Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who narrowly lost a Senate race to Elissa Slotkin last year. The GOP quickly consolidated behind Rogers rather than risk a contested primary.
And Democrats are still hoping for other top recruits to enter races. In Maine, Schumer has yet to persuade Mills to get into the Senate race. Ditto for former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska, where she is also eyeing the gubernatorial contest after narrowly losing reelection to the House last year.
There are other hurdles for Democrats. They lack a clear leader, are struggling to raise money, and remain unpopular with voters after their resounding defeat in last year's election.
“The idea that Democrats, saddled with historically low approval ratings, will win in red states with candidates like Brown and Peltola — who voters just rejected — is absurd,” said Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
But optimistic Democrats know that a single strong candidate — perhaps a Cooper, Brown, Mills, Peltola — can singlehandedly reshape a race. And maybe if they can get a few more of them, their path to control starts to get a little clearer.
Even without squinting so hard.
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