Tropical Storm Erin is now expected to become a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 130-mph, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Erin was a strong tropical storm early Friday morning, Aug. 15, but is expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane by Sunday morning. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
"Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend," the National Hurricane Center said, adding that tropical storm watches have been issued for several islands in the Caribbean.
What impact Erin will have on Florida and the eastern coast of the United States remains uncertain, but forecasters said "the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase."
➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast
Tropical Storm Erin update, path
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 570 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands; 1,740 miles east of West Palm Beach
Maximum sustained winds: 70 mph
Movement: west-northwest at 17 mph
Pressure: 997 mb
Next advisory: 8 a.m. ET
When will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Erin was close to hurricane strengthen at 5 a.m., with maximum sustained winds at 70 mph. A tropical storm is designated as a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph.
Erin is expected to become a hurricane Friday, Aug. 15 and become a major hurricane by the weekend.
➤ Hurricane drama vs. data: Why Erin is a miniscule threat to Florida, U.S. east coast
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin. Where is the storm going?
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
No. Erin was beginning a slight northward shift in direction, as expected, and is now moving west-northwest.
Erin's center is expected to remain east of Florida.
Remember, forecasts can change so it's always best to be prepared.
What impacts could Tropical Storm Erin have on Florida?
What impact Erin will have on Florida and the eastern coast of the United States remains uncertain, but forecasters said "the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase."
How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where could it go? See the scenarios
At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.
Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane by this weekend.
Have any watches or warnings been issued for Tropical Storm Erin?
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
Anguilla and Barbuda
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
Saba and St. Eustatius
Sint Maarten
Hazards affecting land from Tropical Storm Erin
Rainfall: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall beginning late Friday, Aug. 15, and continuing through the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
Surf: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin
Heavy rainfall across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico, may lead to isolated flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides this weekend into early next week.
Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Tropical storm conditions could also occur in portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later in the weekend, and additional watches may be required later today.
While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week continues to increase.
Erin is expected to continue moving west-northwest into the weekend as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. That ridge is expected to weaken early next week, turning Erin northwest and then north.
Erin is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and it will likely intensify once the inner core becomes more organized.
Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Erin get?
At 5 a.m.: 70 mph
12 hours: 80 mph
24 hours: 90 mph
36 hours: 105 mph
48 hours: 115 mph
60 hours: 125 mph
72 hours: 130 mph
96 hours: 125 mph
120 hours: 120 mph
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What's next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Erin strengthening. See tracker, path, Florida impacts
Comments