Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in a close battle in the state’s bitterly contested Senate primary, according to an Emerson College Polling survey released Friday.
The poll showed Cornyn essentially tied with Paxton. He led by 1 point, 30 percent to 29 percent, with 5 percent saying they prefer another candidate and 37 percent undecided. The margin is much closer than numerous other past polls that have shown Paxton with a lead over the longtime incumbent.
“Seven months ahead of the Republican Primary, the contest between the four-term incumbent and the Attorney General is a toss-up,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a release.
He noted that President Trump’s job approval stands at 73 percent among those who said they’re undecided, suggesting an endorsement from him in the race could prove influential.
Cornyn said last month that Trump told him he’s not ready to endorse in the race yet, but he’s discussed it with the president multiple times.
The race between the two candidates has gotten increasingly intense as the two have taken shots at each other.
Paxton regularly denounces Cornyn as a “RINO,” an acronym meaning Republican in name only, and insufficiently loyal to the MAGA agenda and Trump. He’s attacked the senior senator for votes in favor of continuing to send aid to Ukraine and his work to pass a bipartisan gun control law after the 2022 Uvalde, Texas, elementary school shooting.
Cornyn has emphasized his voting record overwhelmingly in favor of Trump’s agenda.
He’s has gone after Paxton over legal and political issues that the attorney general has dealt with, including Paxton’s indictment in 2015 that was eventually dismissed after Paxton reached a deal with prosecutors. Paxton was also impeached by the Texas state House based on allegations that he misused his office to benefit a real estate developer, but he was acquitted in the state Senate.
More recently, the Texas redistricting battle has played a role in the race, with Cornyn requesting the FBI assist to bring back state Democratic lawmakers who left the state to prevent Republicans from approving a new congressional district map.
Multiple polls have shown Paxton, who has sought to position himself as a closer ally of Trump, ahead of Cornyn. One from Texas Southern University in May showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 9 points, while another internal poll from the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn, found the senator trailing Paxton by 16 points.
But the Emerson poll’s results will be welcome news to Cornyn, who has argued that as the race proceeds and voters learn more about the candidates, they would start leaning more in his favor. He has said if he can get Trump’s endorsement, the race would be over.
Cornyn allies have also argued that he’s more electable than Paxton in a state that has generally voted Republican but where Democrats hope to pull off an upset.
The Emerson poll found Cornyn leading former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is making his second Senate run, by 7 points, 45 percent to 38 percent. Paxton leads Allred by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent.
Allred is currently the only major Democrat in the race, but state Rep. James Talarico (D) has said he’s considering a bid.
The poll was conducted from Aug. 11 to 12 among 1,000 registered voters, including 491 Republican primary voters. The margin of error for the entire sample was 3 points and for the Republican primary was 4.4 points.
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