Hurricane Erin spaghetti models, tracker. Will Category 5 storm impact Florida?

Date:2025-08-17 00:52:41 Category:US Views:1 Comment:0

Hurricane Erin became a catastrophic Category 5 storm before noon on Saturday, Aug. 16, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Erin's maximum sustained winds are 160 mph – a Category 5 hurricane is one with winds of 157 mph or higher.

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Tropical storm watches are in effect for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy and Sint Maarten with tropical storm conditions possible within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin, the hurricane center advised.

The center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.

Hurricane Erin is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the East Coast of the U.S., including Florida, and Atlantic Canada next week.

Erin is expected to bring dangerous conditions to offshore waters and beaches along the Florida coast from Aug. 18 - 21, including rip currents and rough, high surf with breakers greater than 7 feet on the 19th and 20th, said the weather service office in Jacksonville, Florida.

Officials are encouraging residents to monitor the storm closely and to make sure they're prepared.

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Where is Hurricane Erin going?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Erin spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

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Hurricane Erin storm tracker, path

Satellite view of Hurricane Erin

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What should you do now to prepare for hurricane season?

Be prepared before there's a storm coming.

Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching while shelves are full stocked and you aren't battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.

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"It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community," the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. "Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint."

On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.

➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free

Florida weather live radar for Aug. 16, 2025

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.