NEW YORK — Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is betting big on President Donald Trump’s controversial megalaw — embracing the tax-and-spend package with a series of five ads as he runs for reelection in a pivotal swing district.
The commercials represent the first time that any House Republican — no less a vulnerable one like Lawler — is touting the measure on the airwaves directly to voters, according to the House GOP’s campaign arm. And he’s focusing on Medicaid provisions in the law that he expects will prove popular, countering Democratic attacks over health care spending cuts.
“The reason why Democrats are messaging the way that they are is because they’re trying to frame this as they often do — class warfare — as opposed to the specifics,” Lawler said in an interview. “It’s important as we head toward next year to not lose the message on this, but actually explain it to voters in a way that they understand.”
The tactic is a gamble for a battleground district lawmaker whose election next year is considered crucial for maintaining GOP control of the House. If successful, the move stands to become a national blueprint for selling voters on the sweeping legislation, which polling suggests is broadly unpopular.
Lawler will unveil the ads today, which trumpet the measure for having “strengthened the Medicaid program” through work requirements for adult recipients and prohibiting undocumented immigrants from “ripping off New York taxpayers.”
A different ad highlights lifting the cap on state and local tax deductions from $10,000 to $40,000. The change is a key measure that blue state Republicans, including Lawler, pushed for in negotiations. Another ad touts an increase to the child tax credit and eliminating taxes on Social Security for many recipients — all framed as a way to address affordability concerns.
In another spot, Lawler says he voted for the legislation “because it invests in Main Street, not Wall Street” by lowering federal tax rates and making it easier for businesses to be passed down.
Lawler’s campaign said about “five figures” will be spent on the ads, which will appear on digital platforms like YouTube.
He believes Republicans need to set the terms of the debate now, more than a year before the midterm elections.
“You have to be on offense, you have to be explaining what you did and why and articulate the case,” Lawler said. “The progressive left is never going to support anything Republicans do. I had folks booing tax cuts, but they’re going to benefit from it as well. It comes down to the middle and where does the middle fall.”
Other Republicans across the country this summer have struggled through hostile town hall events fielding constituent criticism about the legislation.
The House Democrats’ campaign arm on Friday released a Facebook ad blasting Lawler and other Republicans over the measure.
“Mike Lawler is a liar who doesn’t care about New Yorkers,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign spokesperson Nebeyatt Betre. “These are the facts: His vote guts Medicaid, rips health care away from his own constituents, puts hospitals across New York at risk of closing, and raises costs for working families — all so that billionaires can pay less in taxes. New Yorkers have made clear they are sick and tired of Lawler hurting his own community, and these latest lies from Lawler won’t change the fact that voters are ready to reject him come Election Day.”
Lawler, who bowed out of running for New York governor last month, is seeking a third term in a suburban New York City district that Kamala Harris won by one point in last year’s presidential contest. Republican consultants believe Lawler’s early effort to run toward Trump’s law — and not away from it — is smart timing before Democrats can frame their own campaigns around it.
“Too often we find ourselves in a defensive posture because we’re reactive more to the mainstream media than what voters are thinking,” said Dave Catalfamo, a New York GOP operative. “It’s smart to shape the narrative now.”
Yet Lawler is leaning into a contentious law that significantly reduces funding for services like Medicaid. A national Pew Research Center poll last week found a plurality of voters, 46 percent, disapprove of the legislation. Only 32 percent of those polled approved of it.
In New York, a statewide Siena University survey released last week found 69 percent of voters were concerned the measure would cut funding to rural hospitals. That same poll, though, found just over half of voters — 51 percent — do not support using state money to support health care for undocumented immigrants.
New York Democrats have heaped scorn on the measure and plan to focus their campaigns next year around the provisions of the law that slash Medicaid spending and money for federal nutrition programs.
New York’s state budget — already facing a $7.5 billion hole — is expected to lose an additional $3 billion in federal funding for the Essential Plan, which covers roughly 1.6 million low-income New Yorkers who are not eligible for Medicaid.
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office last month estimated the law will lead to the health care sector in New York cutting more than 34,000 hospital jobs and resulting in a $14.3 billion hit in economic activity statewide.
“There are seven Republican members of Congress in this state who literally voted against the interests of their districts, the people who put them in office,” Hochul said at a July rally against the legislation. “That’s not a real good strategy for reelection, is it?”
Lawler is already facing headwinds next year as House Republicans work to keep their narrow majority. He got into a testy exchange earlier this month with MSNBC host Joe Scarborough over the legislation’s impact on hospitals in his House district. (Lawler insisted the state government needs to do a better job managing the Medicaid program.)
Underscoring the perception of how competitive the general election will be, at least seven Democrats have launched campaigns to challenge him next year.
Lawler is a prodigious fundraiser and reported $2.2 million in cash on hand at the end of June. He has tried to carve out a bipartisan, media friendly profile. One of the five commercials touts his centrist approach — drawing a contrast as images of Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene are shown.
Republicans believe that highlighting constituent-driven concerns — like the state and local tax deduction change, a move that impacts people in high tax states like New York — will help.
“Mike Lawler is a seasoned politician,” former Republican Rep. Tom Reed said. “At the end of the day, who knows what’s going to happen in the race? So lean into the benefits of the bill and say, ‘Hey, at the end of the day I fought for you.’ That’s always a wise course to take.”
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