Short on time? We also have a quick guide with everything you need to know about Hurricane Erin and evacuations in North Carolina. Read the brief explainer here.
Hurricane Erin fluctuated in intensity on Monday, Aug. 18, and expanded in size as people fled North Carolina's Outer Banks and forecasters warned of "life-threatening" rip currents and surf conditions along most of the East Coast.
After losing some intensity over the weekend, Erin briefly strengthened back into a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. But by an 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, its winds had fallen to an estimated 125 mph after its north side encountered shearing winds. The forecast indicated Erin is slowing down in forward speed and may continue to see fluctuating wind speeds over the next couple of days as it gradually turns northward along a track between the United States and Bermuda.
Dozens of rip current rescues have already been made along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts, despite the storm still being far offshore. Local beaches are urging visitors not to swim until Friday, Aug. 22, due to dangerous conditions. It's also important to note that this warning doesn’t account for the potential contaminants and debris that could wash ashore once Hurricane Erin passes, which may take days to clear.
Erin is the fifth named storm of what forecasters predicted would be an above-average season. But more notably, it is only the fifth hurricane on record to reach Category 5 strength this early — and the first to do so outside the Gulf or Caribbean, according to WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry.
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
When will Hurricane Erin impact North Carolina? See path
Hurricane Erin is not expected to make landfall on the U.S. and is forecast to dissipate in the open Atlantic by early Saturday, Aug. 23.
Still, Erin's large and expanding wind fields mean storm-driven waves, coastal erosion, and high seas are expected to batter areas of the coast, especially along the Outer Banks.
The storm’s rapid intensification has prompted increased emergency measures in North Carolina, and the Outer Banks — a popular summer vacation spot — are now under a state of emergency. Officials mandated evacuations for Hatteras Island, Ockracoke and Dare County, residents to leave by 8 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19, as forecasters warned of life-threatening rip currents, large swells, coastal flooding and road washouts.
"We cannot put this more bluntly: We now EXPECT there will be times over the next week that NC12 becomes impassable due to significant ocean over wash," North Carolina Department of Transportation said in a statement Monday, Aug. 18. "In a worst-case scenario, the highway could be closed for several days. Please heed the evacuation orders and keep you and your family safe."
In a separate advisory, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan added that "breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet plus coastal flooding and storm surge could over wash dunes and flood homes and flood roads and make some communities impassable."
“These are going to be situations where you’re not going to want to be in the ocean, and you're going to want to heed any precautions given by your local officials,” he said. “Even though the weather can be nice at the coast, it can still have dangerous surf and rip current conditions from a hurricane that's well offshore like we're going to Erin.”
Where is Hurricane Erin headed? See path
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Here's the latest Aug. 19 update on Hurricane Erin.
Location: 720 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
Maximum sustained winds: 110 mph
Movement: northwest at 7 mph
Pressure: 958 mb
North Carolina watches and warnings
Tropical storm watch
Location: Coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf City, North Carolina, including Cape Hatteras, Ocracoke Inlet, Cape Lookout and the Monitor National Marine Sanctuary
When: Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, Aug. 20-21.
High surf advisories
Coastal Pender and Coastal New Hanover counties, North Carolina — 5 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19, to 11 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 21
Coastal Brunswick County, North Carolina; Coastal Horry and Coastal Georgetown counties, South Carolina — 5 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 19, to 11 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 21
West Carteret and Coastal Onslow counties, North Carolina — noon Tuesday, Aug. 19, to 8 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 21
Coastal flood advisory
Location: Lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, North Carolina
When: Until 8 p.m. Monday
Coastal flood watch
Location: West Carteret and Coastal Onslow counties, North Carolina
When: Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening, Aug. 19-21.
Hurricane Erin: North Carolina Outer Banks evacuation routes
Dare County has two primary evacuation routes: U.S. 64 West and U.S. 158 North.
Emergency management officials are urging residents and visitors — particularly those evacuating Hatteras Island, Nags Head, and Roanoke Island — to use U.S. 64 West whenever possible.
See more about evacuation routes on the Dare County website.
Where is Hurricane Erin headed? See projected path
Hurricane Erin spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Watch: Update on Major Hurricane Erin from the National Hurricane Center
How does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season compared to last year in North Carolina?
While the 2025 season may seem slow compared with 2024 — when Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record before its final landfall in Matagorda, Texas — Erin is actually right on schedule in terms of hurricane development.
Historically, the first hurricane forms around Aug. 11, the first major hurricane around Sept. 1 and the fifth named storm around Aug. 22, according to AccuWeather.
Forecasters say the season is entering its most active stretch. In their latest forecast, Colorado State University experts stuck to their early-summer outlook of a slightly above-average season: 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, three of them major. A "normal" year sees 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes.
For North Carolina, the season has been quiet so far, following a similar pattern to 2024.
Around this time last year, Tropical Storm Debby brought heavy rain, flash flooding, tropical storm–force wind gusts, minor coastal flooding and three weak tornadoes to southeastern North Carolina after making landfall in Florida's Big Bend region on Aug. 5, 2024, and then a second landfall in South Carolina's Bulls Bay between Charleston and Georgetown early on Aug. 8, 2024.
By late September, the state tracked Tropical Storm Helene, which caused flash floods, landslides and hundreds of fatalities fatalities after moving through the Appalachians.
So far, no storms have directly affected the state, but Colorado State researchers say North Carolina has one of the highest odds of seeing impacts from a hurricane or named storm this season — second only to Florida.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The season peaks in August and September.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
North Carolina weather radar
North Carolina weather watches and warnings
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: When will Hurricane Erin pass near NC? Projected paths, models
Comments