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Over the past two months, rumors have swirled around Max Verstappen. The loudest chatter was about the four-time Formula 1 champion considering a potential move to Mercedes as soon as 2026. That move may still come eventually, but a report about Verstappen's existing contract on Monday and a quote from Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko on Tuesday indicate that it will have to wait until at least 2027.
The biggest roadblock to a potential move is Verstappen's current contract with Red Bull Racing. ESPN reports that the Dutch driver could have become a free agent in 2026 if he were fourth or lower in the 2025 standings at the annual Summer break, but he left last weekend's Belgian Grand Prix up more than 25 points on current Mercedes driver George Russell. That means Verstappen cannot drop to fourth after the upcoming Hungarian GP, the last race before the now-traditional break in the F1 calendar. As a result, Verstappen can no longer trigger the only known out for the 2026 season in his current deal.
Although Verstappen may have another, unreported way out of his Red Bull deal, long-time Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko tells Germany's Sport.de that the reigning champion will stay put in 2026. Given that Marko has long been seen as an ally of Verstappen, this seems to confirm that a Mercedes switch should not happen in the next year.
"Yes, I can confirm that Max Verstappen will drive for Red Bull in 2026," Marko told Sport.de.
With Verstappen now expected to stay put, Mercedes should soon confirm its two current drivers for the 2026 season. This is not the end of the saga, though. Since both George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are technically free agents next year, Mercedes executive Toto Wolff can sign both to one-year deals and leave the door open to adding Verstappen in 2027.
Next year marks the first season run under new powertrain regulations, leading to a expectation that some manufacturers will lag behind the experienced Mercedes powertrain. Red Bull will have to navigate that new balance of power without long-time team boss Christian Horner, who was dropped earlier this month. If Red Bull struggles to keep up, the team should expect similar conversations about a Verstappen departure next summer.
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