PASSAIC, N.J. — With an empanada in one hand, Republican Jack Ciattarelli spent part of last Saturday afternoon at El Primito restaurant here, making his case to be New Jersey's next governor instead of Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
“My opponent is a continuation of Phil Murphy’s policy,” Ciattarelli told customers at the restaurant, referring to the state's Democratic governor.
It’s no accident that Ciattarelli took his case against Sherrill to this this city and this restaurant, where a mural of the Dominican Republic’s countryside stretches across a wall and the country’s flags hang over a doorway.
Trump won Passaic County, which includes the city by the same name, by 3 percentage points last year. A former Democratic stronghold, Passaic saw the largest swing toward Trump of any county in the Garden State in 2024 compared to the 2020 election. And it’s home to the largest share of Latino residents of any New Jersey county.
Trump’s gains in Passaic and other New Jersey counties with sizable Latino populations reflected his broader gains among Latino voters across the country in 2024. Now, this year’s race for governor in New Jersey, one of two governor's races in the country in 2025, is an early testing ground for both parties as they try to grapple with that shift. Republicans are looking to sustain Trump’s gains among Latino voters without the president on the ballot, while Democrats are trying to win back voters who used to be in their corner.
“It’s going to be the decisive factor,” Patricia Campos-Medina, a Sherill campaign vice chair, said of the Latino vote.
Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who has studied Latino voters, said the New Jersey race is “a perfect petri dish to ask this question as to whether or not Latinos are an ethnic voting bloc or an economic pocketbook, blue-collar voting bloc.”
“We are both,” Madrid later added. “And both parties try to make it either-or, which is why neither one of them has a hold on the fastest growing segment of the electorate.”
Economic focus
The economy, and Trump’s own brand of “economic populism,” was the main driver of Latino voters’ shift to the right as they struggled with the high costs of living, political strategists and officials in both parties say.
“The conversation that Donald Trump had, it was the conversation that they want to hear,” Jose Arango, the GOP chair in Hudson County, said of Latino voters in his community. Trump also improved on his 2020 margin there last year.
“Homeland security, law and order, school choice, pro-business, lower taxes, equality, taking all the woke policies out of the schools,” Arango added.
Campos-Medina said Democrats “got lazy” when it came to outreach to Latino voters in New Jersey and across the country last year.
“We care about the same issues that white suburban voters, Black urban voters care about. And No. 1 ... is the economy,” Campos-Medina said, later adding that Democrats’ main message to Latino voters boiled down to: “Trump is bad. Trump doesn’t like immigrants.”
Campos-Medina noted the sizable swath of Latino voters in New Jersey — incorporating significant numbers who are Puerto Rican, Dominican, Central American, Cuban and Mexican — include many small-business owners who “felt disconnected from the” Democratic Party.
But she is confident that Sherrill’s focus on driving down costs will appeal to Latino voters who may be disenchanted with Democrats.
“Her message has always been about, ‘How am I going to improve the economy? How am I going to help the small-business owners? How am I going to lower the cost of groceries in New Jersey?’” Campos-Medina said. “And I think that is appealing to folks because they’re listening to everyday concerns.”
Campos-Medina said the Sherrill campaign has been prioritizing outreach to the Latino community, convening meetings with business leaders and attending local events.
A few hours after Ciattarelli greeted customers at El Primito on Saturday, Sherrill, 53, a former prosecutor and Navy pilot, attended the annual Puerto Rican Day Parade & Festival in Jersey City. Afterward, she said, in a statement in Spanish, that it was a “true honor” to recognize “the pride, traditions, and valuable contributions that the Puerto Rican community brings to the Garden State.”
Some Democrats also believe Latino voters who rejected Democrats last year will ultimately blame Trump for their current economic woes and, in turn, oppose Ciattarelli, amid concerns that Trump’s tariff policy could drive up prices and his sweeping tax cut and spending law could slash social safety nets like Medicaid.
“Ciattarelli, in my opinion, is going to have to own everything this administration has done, because he’s showing no willingness to act independently of it,” said Rep. Rob Menendez, D-N.J.
But Ciattarelli, 63, a former state lawmaker and small businessman, is betting that voters who are concerned about the state’s high cost of living will ultimately place the blame on Murphy and his fellow Democrats.
Asked if Trump bears any responsibility for voters’ persistent economic concerns, Ciattarelli said: “The economy did better in his first term than it did in Joe Biden’s term. And we’ve just received news the unemployment rate is down and that consumer price index is down significantly. So there is greater confidence in President Trump’s economic policies."
"But let’s be clear, what’s going on with our state economy has everything to do with the current administration,” Ciattarelli said, referring to Murphy.
Angel Castillo, who owns El Primito restaurant in Passaic, said that’s why he’s backing Ciattarelli again this year, after voting for him in 2021 when he lost a close race to Murphy.
“Right now, the cost of living throughout the whole state is ridiculous. Especially a little business like this, we’re barely making it,” Castillo said. “And I can show you my electric bill. My electric bill, since Murphy took office, almost doubled.”
‘Buyer’s remorse’?
While the economy remains a top issue for Latino voters, Trump’s efforts to crack down on illegal immigration and ramp up deportations are also raising concerns among Latino voters across the country and in New Jersey, where nearly 1 in 4 residents are foreign-born.
A national survey of Latino voters conducted in late July by Equis Research, a Democratic firm, found 26% of Latino voters who cast ballots for Trump last year said they are disappointed in him or regret voting for him, citing Trump’s focus on mass deportations and inaction on the economy.
In New Jersey, a majority of likely voters, including Hispanics, say the Trump administration is doing “too much” on deportations, according to a July Fairleigh Dickinson University survey. Nearly 30% of voters overall, and half of Hispanic voters, say they are worried a family member or close friend could be deported.
“Every Puerto Rican and Dominican that I’ve talked to in New Jersey who supported Donald Trump has all said the same thing in focus groups, which is: ‘I wanted him to bring prices down. I thought Joe Biden was old and weak, but I did not vote for him to start locking up folks who just came here seeking a better life, who’ve broken no laws other than trying to flee to this country for safety,’” said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, who has conducted focus groups with Latino nonprofits throughout the Northeast.
Menendez, the congressman, said Ciattarelli will also have to own Trump’s immigration actions, noting: “There’s already buyer's remorse, not just in the Latino community, but in a lot of different pockets of this state and this country. And that’s absolutely going to be on the ballot come November.”
Campos-Medina said the deportations have stoked fear and uncertainty among Latino communities in New Jersey, which could hurt Hispanic-owned businesses if their customers are wary of going out.
While Campos-Medina said Democrats’ message should be focused on the economy, she added, “That doesn’t mean that we don’t acknowledge the damage that Donald Trump is doing to our communities, in the harassment, in the terrorization of our immigrant neighbors.”
Ciattarelli said he did not disagree with Trump’s approach to deportations, noting that Trump’s victory in Passaic County last year “strongly suggests that Latinos that are here legally support the president’s efforts in securing the border and deporting people that came here illegally who have a history of criminality in their country of origin and/or have committed a crime since arriving illegally.”
“As I go around the state, I find Latino Americans support that policy,” Ciattarelli said. “As do I.”
That includes Castillo, the Passaic restaurant owner, who dismissed any concerns about deportations.
“If you’re here and you’re here doing the right thing, why should you be worried about it?” he said.
Even as Ciattarelli makes his case, early polling suggests that Sherrill could have an edge among Latino voters this fall.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll and a StimSight Research Survey from July both found Sherrill with leads in the low double-digits among Latino voters, although both surveys had small sample sizes, meaning there is larger room for error. Both surveys also found sizable chunks of Latino voters remain undecided in the race.
Those undecided voters include a woman named Jess, who declined to share her last name while discussing politics. She chatted briefly with Ciattarelli as he visited Parrillada Costambar, a Dominican restaurant in Paterson, later on Saturday afternoon.
A Democrat who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris last year, Jess said she is has not yet decided if she'll back Sherrill or Ciattarelli for governor, noting that combating drugs and improving education are among her top issues.
“I have to sit down and see their proposals to see what they are going to do for us,” she said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
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