Hurricane Erin has been making big headlines this week. One of its notable features is the rapid intensification of the storm to major hurricane strength last weekend. While we’re not seeing necessarily more hurricanes with climate change, we are seeing more and more of these storms that intensify rapidly.
An analysis by Climate Central found that the very warm ocean temperatures that fueled Erin’s rapid intensification were made 90 times more likely due to climate change. Even a 5 mph increase in wind speeds equates to a 25% increase in damage according to NOAA estimates.
While Erin will continue to move away from the U.S., there are two areas to watch for probable development. One system behind Erin has a 90% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 7 days. It would be named ‘Fernand.’
While that system appears to follow Erin’s path out to sea, the disturbance lined up behind that one has a 50% chance of being a named storm in the next 7 days and may pose a risk to at least the Caribbean if not closer to the U.S. mainland. Here’s a ‘spaghetti’ plot of numerous forecast model simulated paths:
If ‘Invest 99L’ (the name for that second disturbance) becomes a tropical storm it will be ‘Gabrielle.’
A taste of fall!
The big headline for the interior of the U.S. east of the Rockies, is the taste of fall many will experience (relative to each region’s version of ‘fall temperatures.’).
Temperatures early next week will average anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees cooler than normal for much of the central and eastern U.S., which is the equivalent of late September or even October temperatures in some places.
High temperatures Sunday will be only in the 60s for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Those readings are average for the end of September rather than late August.
Places like in western Kansas too, will see highs just in the 60s by Tuesday. The average high temperature for October 24 in Dodge City, Kansas is 67 degrees which is close to the readings they’ll see Tuesday.
The cool air will suppress any real severe thunderstorm chances of course as well. Only a marginal severe risk is forecast the next couple of days in portions of the central United States.
One of the dramatic changes that will really make it ‘feel’ like autumn for many areas is the suppression of the tropical summer dew points well to the south in the Gulf.
Dew point temperatures in the 40s will make it all the way to Arkansas and Tennessee which is rather unusual to happen in the month of August still.
These kinds of cool air outbreaks should be much more common in the summer. Historically these would happen once an August, but have been non-existent in recent years.
The high temperature in the 60s for Minnesota for example, will be the coolest August temperatures in 7 years.
That may sound like a dramatic headline, but that should occur once an August on average, even in modern times but hasn’t since 2018.
BMTN Note: Weather events in isolation can't always be pinned on climate change, but the broader trend of increasingly severe weather and record-breaking extremes seen in Minnesota and across the globe can be attributed directly to the rapidly warming climate caused by human activity. The IPCC has warned that Earth is "firmly on track toward an unlivable world," and says greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 in order to limit warming to 1.5C, which would prevent the most catastrophic effects on humankind. You can read more here.
This story was originally reported by Bring Me The News on Aug 24, 2025, where it first appeared in the MN Weather section. Add Bring Me The News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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