Iran faces a renewal of UN-mandated sanctions within weeks unless it returns to negotiations on the future of its nuclear program and allows international inspections of its facilities.
The process for restoring sanctions that were lifted a decade ago under a landmark nuclear deal could begin at the end of the month if a meeting on Tuesday between Iran and three European nations fails to make progress.
France, Germany and the United Kingdom have told the United Nations they will move to reimpose sanctions through what’s known as the ‘snapback’ mechanism if Iran continues to violate its obligations under the deal.
The snapback was built into the 2015 nuclear pact reached by Iran, the US and the Europeans. Under the deal, Iran was granted sanctions relief in return for strict and verifiable limits on its nuclear program.
But after US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal, known as the JCPOA, during his first term in office, Iran scaled back compliance by accelerating its uranium enrichment close to weapons grade.
In a letter to the UN Security Council last week, foreign ministers of the three European nations, known as the E3, said Iran had violated “the near entirety of its JCPOA commitments.”
“We have made clear that if Iran is not willing to reach a diplomatic solution before the end of August 2025, or does not seize the opportunity of an extension, E3 are prepared to trigger the snapback mechanism.”
Iran suspended nuclear negotiations with the US, which were aimed at curbing its enrichment program, after the US and Israel bombed its nuclear sites during a 12-day war in June.
Since then, inspectors from the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have been unable to access Iran’s nuclear installations.
The snapback automatically reimposes all UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted under the 2015 deal. Those sanctions, introduced between 2006 and 2010, include an arms embargo, restrictions on uranium enrichment, and bans on Iran acquiring technology related to its ballistic missile program. The measures also contributed to severe pressure on Iran’s oil and financial sectors.
The snapback process takes 30 days, and the Europeans are aware that Russia assumes the presidency of the Security Council in October and may obstruct the process.
Iran prepares for measures against European nations
In a phone call with his counterparts from the UK, France and Germany on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that triggering the snapback mechanism would carry serious consequences, state-run Press TV reported.
Iran is preparing for “the worst scenarios,” an Iranian official told CNN last week, “taking it for granted that the E3 are set to exhaust their sole remaining leverage to please President Trump.”
The source said that among the options Iran is considering are more limitations on Tehran’s cooperation with the IAEA, a withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and putting the E3 on “hostile states” lists, which would allow the Iranian armed forces to inspect vessels that are flagged, bound or owned by the European states in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
“The E3 is further reducing their role into irrelevance by nagging like a frustrated kid. They have lost their moral and political compass failing to appreciate their status versus those of Americans in West Asian power politics,” the source said.
Tuesday’s meeting will be held at the deputy foreign minister level, Press TV reported.
Analysts say the reimposition of sanctions triggered by the snapback would damage the already beleaguered Iranian economy.
“In the short term, snapback will hurt the Iranian economy, largely by creating problems for euro liquidity, which is important for Iran’s ability to reliably buy essential goods, like pharmaceuticals. The sanctions will also hit consumer and business confidence in Iran,” according to analyst Esfandyar Batmanghelidj.
But he expects China will “continue to purchase Iranian oil. The (United Arab Emirates) will continue to facilitate trade for Iranian importers. Iraq will continue to act as a market for Iranian exporters.”
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