Voters cast their ballots. (Otto Kitsinger for States Newsroom.)
A new poll conducted by Emerson College indicates Ohio’s Republican candidates have an advantage over their Democratic counterparts. There’s still a long way to go before next year’s primaries — much less the general election in November 2026. But the survey offers a baseline for voters’ preferences and engagement.
Emerson pollsters contacted 1,000 active registered voters over two days last week Aug. 18-19. They contacted respondents on cell phones, via text messages, and online. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 3%.
The 2026 race
In the gubernatorial contest, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy holds a 10-point lead in a hypothetical matchup with former state health director, Dr. Amy Acton. Almost 12% of respondents were undecided.
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Former Ohio Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan has not formally entered the race, but he’s been flirting with the idea. If Ramaswamy were to face off against Ryan, his lead would shrink to about eight points, the poll shows. A little more than 10% of were undecided in that contest.
For the first time in almost 20 years, Sherrod Brown is running for U.S. Senate as a challenger. The three-term Democratic U.S. Senator lost to Republican U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno last year. He’s challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted who Gov. Mike DeWine tapped to fill the seat left vacant when Vance became Vice President.
Poll respondents favor Husted in a matchup against Brown.
“In the first public poll following Sherrod Brown’s 2026 campaign kick-off, the former Senator trails the incumbent Jon Husted by six points, though he has a higher name recognition than the first-term Senator,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.
Digging a bit deeper, Kimball explained, “Husted has a 16-point lead among male voters and voters without a college degree, and a 14-point lead among voters over 40. Brown has a 13-point lead among voters under 40, a three-point lead among women voters, and an eight-point lead among independent voters.”
Brown, however, still needs to win the Democratic primary. With a long track-record, millions of dollars already raised, and near-universal name ID (his last contest was the most expensive in U.S. Senate history), Brown has enormous structural advantages.
But according to FEC filings, Lynnea Lau of Toledo, Chris Volpe of Columbus, and Ronald Kincaid of Upper Arlington have all officially declared their candidacy. Another political newcomer, Fred Ode, has announced his candidacy, but has yet to file with the FEC.
Broader, longer view
The Trump backlash some Democrats are banking on for the midterms hasn’t materialized in Ohio — at least not yet.
Emerson found almost half of Ohio voters (49%) approve of the job Trump is doing as president; 42% disapprove of his performance. About 80% of respondents described themselves as ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ motivated to vote in the midterm elections.
When it comes to one of the president’s signature issues, Trump’s policy fares even better. Nearly 57% of respondents said mass deportations in Ohio are a good thing. Respondents were a bit mixed, however, on sending Ohio national guard troops to Washington, D.C. Roughly 44% support the idea compared to 42% who oppose it. About 14% are still up in the air.
With Trump’s push to gerrymander Texas in favor of Republicans, redistricting is getting a lot of national attention just as Ohio lawmakers prepare to draft new congressional lines of their own. Unlike any other state, Ohio is constitutionally mandated to redraw its map because the existing one was approved along partisan lines.
Emerson found a plurality of respondents acknowledge Ohio’s existing boundaries are drawn to benefit Republican politicians, but about a third said they were unsure.
Another potential consequence of Trump’s gerrymandering push shows up in 2028 Democratic presidential primary field. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has pushed to redraw his state’s congressional map in hopes of neutralizing any Republican gains in Texas. Newsom has positioned himself as Trump’s foil — up to and including a caps-lock heavy social media account satirizing the president’s Truth Social presence.
At least among Democrats, Newsom’s trolling appears to be making an impression. He leads a crowded field of 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls.
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