You're a smart fantasy football manager. You've been scouting all summer, thinking about skills and roles and strategies and the like. You've been dreaming of that championship at the end of the year, the glory and the parade.
Let me introduce another word for you: leverage.
Any large journey begins with small steps, and that's my goal for today — small steps. I prefer to attack fantasy football with a microscope, not a telescope. It's such a snow globe league, sure to look radically different in a few months. So my initial aim is to consider what I know right now and do my best in the short term.
I want you to win September. I want you to be in first, or pretty darn close to it, before the leaves hit the ground.
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A fast starter in fantasy football affords you that leverage, and with that comes wonderful things. Maybe you can shrug off a difficult bye week. Perhaps you can make some of those obvious 2-for-1 trades where you're sacrificing depth to a desperate opponent and poaching their star. In the middle of the year, we can start shaping a roster that's set up to dominate in the money weeks, armed with more reliable information on which defenses truly are horrible.
If you have leverage, you can let the game come to you. If you don't have leverage, you often find yourself forcing things, pressed into an activity you would prefer to avoid.
How do we win September? How do we play for today? How often do fast-starting or slow-starting teams make the playoffs? Here are some concepts to consider:
First, accept the data
A fast start doesn't guarantee a playoff spot and a slow start doesn't doom you for the year. But let's see how the actual math shakes out:
In 2023 Yahoo Leagues:
— Teams starting 3-0 made the playoffs 72.9% of the time
— Teams starting 0-3 made the playoffs 12.0% percent of the time
In 2024 Yahoo Leagues:
— Teams starting 3-0 made the playoffs 72.7% of the time
— Teams starting 0-3 made the playoffs 11.2% percent of the time
Obviously you're more likely to have a strong team if you start fast, and your roster might have holes if you start slowly. But a quick start also brings that leverage we talk about; the freedom to be patient with a bench player or the luxury of mining the waiver wire without "must win" challenges staring you in the face. Fantasy football leverage is like being on the button in every poker hand you play. It's a cheat code.
Don't go looking for injuries
I'd prefer not to draft into injuries in August — I know injuries will find me soon enough in September. So with Joe Mixon (foot) and Jayden Reed (foot) doing little this summer, they've tumbled down my draft board. Mixon is also entering his ninth year in the league, a danger zone for many running backs.
Injury optimism is rarely your friend in fantasy football. A hurt player might need a prove-it week or two before you feel confident starting him. Perhaps they'll be on a limited snap count when they return. The picture often takes too long to develop.
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Recognize September All-Stars
Obviously your roster needs to be a collection of balance — your best players will help you all year, while the remainder of your roster could be a mix of help-now and help-later players. With a fast start in mind, I might give some September options a possible bump. Maybe Nick Chubb is the early back in Houston as Mixon rehabs his foot injury. J.K. Dobbins might be the early backfield winner in Denver, before rookie RJ Harvey gets up to speed.
This is more of that “microscope, not telescope” way of thinking. Again, you need a mix of cadence-specific players on your roster. It's fine to do some long-term planning, too. But sometimes it's important to realize value that's immediate.
Work the schedule
Opponents don't come into play with your superstars, of course — if you're rostering Ja'Marr Chase or Bijan Robinson or Brock Bowers, you're rolling them out against all comers. But the matchups are critical at the lesser positions and the streamable spots. In most of my leagues, I'll have a short leash for my DST picks and often rent them out, a week at a time.
I can't promise you the Cincinnati or Arizona defenses will have long-term appeal, but both clubs are heavy Week 1 favorites; the Bengals face the Browns, while the Cardinals take on the Saints. I've targeted the Cincinnati and Arizona defensive squads in summer drafts (last round, of course), knowing it could be a short assignment.
Conversely, the Ravens could have a formidable real-life defense, but the early season schedule is tricky; Baltimore plays Buffalo, Detroit and Kansas City in the opening month. A Week 2 date versus Cleveland is nice, but we'll have to be careful with Baltimore for most of the opening quarter. That's enough for me to draft away from the Ravens; I don't want to carry two defenses in the early part of the season.
Be proactive on the wire early
One of the biggest mistakes fantasy managers make is to overly fall in love with their bench. Obviously, it's a season-to-taste thing; I'm not saying you have to recklessly cut players without a thoughtful moment or two first. But in-season information often means more to us than blind summer speculation.
Have you heard about the Monty Hall Problem? It's a counter-intuitive logic puzzle that shows us that when we have additional information, it's often in our best interest to change our mind.
Keep that theme in mind as you're scouting possible roster moves. Once the NFL starts playing real games, the Monty Hall Problem applies to fantasy football. (This is not to be confused with the 2014 Denver Broncos; that was the Montee Ball Problem.)
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