Repeat rounds of heavy rain through Labor Day could mean soggy outdoor celebrations and potential localized flooding for South Florida.
The National Weather Service in Miami is forecasting widespread rainfall amounts of up to 4 inches for Palm Beach County between Aug. 29 and into the early morning hours of Sept. 2 with a 10% chance of coastal areas from Miami through West Palm Beach getting up to 10 inches.
Meteorologist Chuck Caracozza said there will be breaks between showers but more clouds than a typical South Florida summer day and longer periods of rainfall. Each day from Aug. 30 through Labor Day has between a 50% to 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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"It's going to be more than your regular summer time routine of just an afternoon shower or thunderstorm," Caracozza said. "If we get into heavy showers stalling over one area or multiple rounds of showers over the same area, that could lead to substantially higher rain totals."
Biggest weather concerns for Labor Day weekend in South Florida: excessive rainfall, lightning, extreme heat
The biggest concerns through the weekend are lightning, excessive rainfall leading to flooding, and extreme heat. Thirteen people have been killed this year by lightning nationwide, including one Florida death on June 20 in New Smyrna Beach.
No place outside is safe during a thunderstorm, and lightning can strike from 10 miles away with a blue sky overhead.
"Florida is certainly the lightning death capital of the country," said John Jensenius, lightning safety specialist for the National Lightning Safety Council in a June interview after multiple lightning injuries occurred statewide. "Our recommendation is that you get inside a substantial building that has wiring and plumbing."
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Between 2015 and 2024, 50 people died from lightning strikes in Florida. The next highest number was 20 in Texas followed by 15 in Alabama.
While the clouds will help keep temperatures lower during the Labor Day weekend, triple-digit heat index or "feels like" temperatures are still expected. A deep dig of the jet stream is forecast to leave much of the eastern half of the country with below normal temperatures, but it won't reach South Florida.
"In Palm Beach County, your temperatures will drop a little bit this weekend," said AccuWeather senior hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva. "It will be much more noticeable in the northern portions of Florida because the the entire eastern half of the country will be below average."
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Any dip in temperatures will likely be welcomed in South Florida. In West Palm Beach, every day except one this month through Aug. 27 has seen a high temperature of 90 degrees or above. Eleven days reached 95 degrees or higher.
With an average temperature of 86 degrees — two degrees warmer than normal — August is on track to rank as the second warmest in 132 years of records in West Palm Beach, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Rain may also may be favored by some. West Palm Beach is down 14.7 inches of rain for the year as measured at Palm Beach International Airport. That makes 2025 through Aug. 28 the 10th driest year in more than a century of records.
It also means that despite an uptick in rainfall in August and more than 10 weeks into the wet season, about 43% of Palm Beach County is suffering moderate to severe drought with 5% in extreme drought, the third highest level on a four-tier scale.
The wet season in South Florida technically runs June 15 through Oct. 15. It's a period when South Florida gets between 60% and 70% of its rainfall.
Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are the only counties in the state experiencing drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report released Aug. 28.
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to [email protected]. Help support our local journalism: Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: 2025 Labor Day weekend weather for South Florida and Palm Beach County
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