While the tropics are calm at the moment, August is typically when tropical activity starts to increase.
On average, the first hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season happens within the first two weeks of August, specifically Aug. 11. So far this year, there have been three named storms: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal.
None have threatened or made landfall in the U.S.
CPC: Tropical activity possible for mid-August
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center issues weather outlooks for 2-3 weeks out, while the National Hurricane Center issues alerts 7 days out.
In its latest tropical outlook, the Climate Prediction Center is looking at the possibility of tropical activity on either side of Florida sometime between Aug. 6-12, 2025.
Since it's outside the NHC's 7-day window, the NHC has not issued any tropical outlooks for the same area.
What does this mean?
The CDC said in its outlook that it's looking at sea surface temperatures and the amount of Saharan Dust over the Atlantic, which is thinning. In the next two weeks, there will be a lot more moisture in the atmosphere that could potentially help generate a tropical system.
The CPC put the chances of that happening at 20-40%.
Being so far out, it's too soon to know anything for sure. There is no system right now. There is no tropical storm. There is no hurricane. The CPC puts out these outlooks for the public, meteorologists, government entities, and other entities to be aware of.
Timeline
The CPC's outlook specifically looks at Aug. 6 - 12, 2025, for potential tropical activity. A trough could push in near Florida and combine with the warm ocean waters, which would potentially help form a low pressure system.
What about Florida?
It is too soon to tell what the impacts to Florida will be, if any. This is a future outlook and a lot can change in the days and week ahead. The FOX 35 Storm Team will continue to monitor any changes.
Though, it is a good reminder to be prepared for hurricane season, which does not end until Nov. 30, 2025.
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