Here's the NASCAR Cup Playoff Bubble Picture Heading into Iowa

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  • One would assume that the winless Tyler Reddick would be safely in the playoffs since he’s 138 points above the cutline.

  • The other three drivers above the cutline are Alex Bowman at 63 and Chris Buescher at 42.

  • A win by a first-time winner in 2025 would move the cutline and mean only two drivers would be in line to get in on points.


With only three playoff positions available in the NASCAR Cup Series and four races remaining in the regular season, the tension and urgency surrounding the teams still needing a victory this year has left several owners, drivers and crew chiefs on edge.

One would assume that the winless Tyler Reddick would be safely in the playoffs since he’s 138 points above the cutline, but if someone below the cutline wins during the regular season that shakes up everything. The other three drivers above the cutline are Alex Bowman at 63 and Chris Buescher at 42.

Those below the cutline who could cause a problem for those three drivers are Ryan Preece who’s 42 points below the cutline, Kyle Busch at minus 81 points, Ty Gibbs at 95 and A.J. Allmendinger at 124. Currently, it appears that at least one RFK Racing driver—Buescher—will knock a teammate—Preece—out of the playoffs. Of course, that doesn’t mean that several other drivers below the cutline couldn’t win and upset things even more. That includes Brad Keselowski, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Austin Dillon.

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A win would make things a lot easier for Tyler Reddick, who leads the non-winners in points. Meg Oliphant - Getty Images

The NACAR Cup Playoff Bubble

Currently, 13 different drivers have won in 2025, leaving three spots in the 16-driver NASCAR Cup Playoffs for non-winning drivers with the most points. If any other winless driver in 2025 breaks through and wins over the final four races, they're in and the cutline moves up.

Here's the cutline for non-winning drivers in term of points with four races to go (top three would be in if season ended today):

Tyler Reddick, +138 points

Alex Bowman, +63

Chris Buescher, +42


Ryan Preece, -42

Kyle Busch -81

Ty Gibbs -95

A.J. Allmendinger -124

John Hunter Nemechek -134


With Iowa, Watkins Glen, Richmond and Daytona rounding out the regular season, the stage is set for upsets. That’s two short tracks, a road course and a superspeedway.

Iowa, a seven-eighths-mile track, is hosting its second Cup race, but there have been changes since last year. In May, the entrances and exits to the turns were repaved, while the straightaways kept the original surface from 2006. The partial repave has changed the racing grooves and created higher grip in the repaved areas.

Shane Van Gisbergen, who has won all but one Cup road/street course race this year, is the favorite heading into Watkins Glen. However, Buescher defeated the New Zealander last year at The Glen. McDowell and Allmendinger also shouldn’t be discounted due to their road racing prowess.

There’s always the possibility that Kyle Busch could secure the Richmond victory this year. Busch possesses six Richmond victories.

Daytona’s unpredictability is well known. Keselowski and Stenhouse are well known for their superspeedway racing finesse. No one would be surprised if one of them slid into the playoffs in the regular season finale. After all, Harrison Burton did it last year with the Wood Brothers.

While most people are focusing on who’s in and who’s out of the playoffs, there’s another interesting scenario ongoing for the regular season championship. Currently, it’s between three Hendrick Motorsports drivers—Chase Elliott, William Byron and Kyle Larson. However, if those three stumble in the next four races, Denny Hamlin could find himself the regular season titlist.

Entering Iowa, Elliott leads Byron by four points and Larson by 15. However, he possesses only a 20-point advantage over Hamlin in fourth.

So, this year, who emerges with the regular season title is just as intriguing as who will walk off with the final three playoff positions.

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