An expert analyzes how China is responding to a new set of global challenges.
China’s growing engagement in the Middle East—heightened by the recent escalation of conflict in Gaza—has drawn significant global attention and speculation. Traditionally, Beijing’s regional strategy has focused on securing long-term economic and energy interests: ensuring access to vital energy resources, safeguarding major international trade corridors, and investing extensively in infrastructure, technology, and energy sectors, particularly in the Persian Gulf.
Yet, despite these strategic imperatives, China continues to pursue a deliberately ambivalent and multidimensional approach toward key regional actors, most notably Iran and Israel. This carefully calibrated posture reflects broader geopolitical shifts, the erosion of US hegemony, and, above all, the mounting instability across the Middle East—developments that increasingly threaten both regional equilibrium and China’s own economic security.
Energy and strategic interests
Energy security is a central pillar of China’s strategic outlook. As the world’s largest oil importer, China currently sources around 40% of its oil from the Middle East–a figure expected to double by 2035. This heavy reliance exposes Beijing to acute vulnerabilities should conflict or instability disrupt critical maritime chokepoints such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. These strategic routes also account for roughly 60% of China’s trade with Europe and Africa, further amplifying the stakes of regional volatility.
Beyond energy, China’s broader economic footprint in the region—particularly through the global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—faces mounting risks. Saudi Arabia, China’s largest trading partner in the region, exemplifies this accelerating interdependence: their bilateral trade reached $107.53 billion in 2024, underscoring the rapid deepening of their economic ties.
Navigating regional rivalries
Alongside its pursuit of undermining the American regional influence and asserting itself as a stabilizing global power, Beijing–long known for its cautious and natural approach–has recently adopted a more pragmatic, proactive stance in the diplomatic arena. This shift reflects a delicate balancing act and the adaptation of a flexible, well-calibrated strategy, aimed at maximizing the value derived from diverse strategic partnerships while carefully avoiding alienating any particular state or favouring one over another.
China’s sophisticated manoeuvring between rival actors and competing regional interests—exemplified by its concurrent cooperation with Saudi Arabia, whose Crown Prince’s global ambitious vision, "Vision 2030," is being advanced in tandem with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This occurs despite its deepening ties with Iran and opposition to its nuclear program and while simultaneously leading diplomatic efforts and negotiations with both the United States and Arab leaders, aimed at promoting a ceasefire and preventing further security escalation in the Middle East.
Furthermore, China draws a clear distinction between declarative rhetoric and operational conduct, as well as between political confrontations and broader systemic interests. These distinctions enable it to uphold the principle of non-intervention—avoiding direct political or military involvement—while simultaneously continuing to lead a critical discourse that includes sharp condemnation of Israel and its military policies, alongside consistent support, on the other hand, for the Palestinian and Iranian positions.
The Israel-Iran conflict: A critical turning point
However, a closer look reveals that the recent direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, which erupted in June, along with US military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has triggered a significant shift in China’s perception of both actors. This shift is already challenging its previously neutral stance, testing its relationships with regional states and its ability to navigate among them. Moreover, this development increases China’s dependence on oil powers, intensifying its need to diversify energy sources and alternative trade and supply routes, including diversified engagements with Central Asian states.
Alongside its commitment to invest approximately $400 billion in the development of critical infrastructure across Iran, including the establishment of logistical corridors and the strengthening of security and economic cooperation as part of the BRI project, Beijing is simultaneously cultivating economic and strategic partnerships with Israel, primarily in the fields of high-tech, innovation, and science.
Recent reports indicate that bilateral trade volume between China and Israel reached $16.27 billion in 2024, compared to $14.56 billion in 2023. Furthermore, in May of this year, Chinese exports to Israel totalled $1.45 billion, while imports from Israel reached $1.7 billion–figures that reflect Israel’s rising significance in Beijing’s calculations.
Moreover, alongside efforts to restore Iran’s military capabilities and renew its missile systems damaged during Israeli and American strikes, China—having for the first time adopted a relatively moderate and conciliatory stance toward Israel—simultaneously directed sharp criticism at the Iranian leadership, accusing it of ideological dogmatism and adherence to an extreme political position.
From Beijing’s perspective, the conflict with Israel has demonstrated that Iran—significantly weakened—is no longer keeping pace with global developments, and that the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” including the network of proxies it has cultivated across the Middle East over the years, is gradually fracturing. Senior Chinese scholars have even suggested that the Ayatollah regime, now perceived as teetering on the brink of collapse, no longer serves the strategic interests of China’s leadership in the region.
Strategic adjustments
Recently, voices in Israel are increasingly calling for a reassessment of relations with China, despite constraints imposed by the United States. This presents an opportunity to adopt a new, pragmatic foreign policy approach—one that advances Israel’s interests in China, across Asia, and more broadly among countries of the “Global South.” At the same time, it could help integrate China into initiatives aimed at promoting stability in the Middle East, including the future rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip. All of this is especially relevant today, amid mounting global criticism of Israel, the renewal of nuclear talks with Iran, and the unpredictable foreign policy of the President of the United States.
From a broad geopolitical and strategic perspective, it is already becoming apparent that even a partial or limited shift in China’s stance toward Israel constitutes an important diplomatic signal—one that could eventually lead to a significant strategic turning point. Beyond the inherent advantages of strengthening bilateral ties and expanding Beijing’s role as a mediator between regional adversaries, deeper Chinese involvement could help restrain Iran or, at the very least, counterbalance its negative influence while reducing the risk of regional security escalation.
In addition, recognition from China could enhance Israel’s prestige and global image—not only as a member of the American-Western bloc and a close ally of the United States, but also as a powerful and legitimate actor on the international stage. Strengthening ties between the two countries could lead to diversification and expansion of investments and partnerships in fields such as technology, innovation (AI), agriculture, and healthcare. This would boost Israeli exports to China’s vast market and help position Israel as a regional power. Furthermore, closer relations and a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could influence other countries in the Global South and improve Israel’s standing in their eyes.
China's real politics
Looking from a broad Chinese vantage point, it is evident that China’s diplomatic pivot is a sophisticated and calculated move—another layer in its global geopolitical strategy. Beyond expanding its political and economic influence in the Middle East, strengthening ties with Israel is expected to help China position itself as a responsible, moderate, and balanced global power—one capable of acting as a potential mediator in other regional and international conflicts (such as the dispute between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, the fight against the Houthis, and the war between Russia and Ukraine).
Through this initiative, China seeks to establish its own network of bilateral and multilateral relationships that will grant it geopolitical flexibility, reduce its dependence on any single country, and enhance its status and image on the international stage.
Although this shift may provoke opposition from Iran and other Muslim countries—as well as Western criticism regarding the disruption of the regional balance of power—the success of the move largely depends on how China chooses to frame its new policy. If Beijing emphasizes its pragmatic stance and clarifies that it does not aim to create a new regional security order or to replace the United States in the region, it could profoundly reshape the Middle East landscape, contribute to the regional and global geopolitical balance.
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