Fantasy football season is nearly upon us. In a matter of weeks, millions of people will draft their teams and begin the pursuit of fantasy glory. If we’re being honest, millions of folks have already done just that.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]
For me, football is my year-round obsession. Not a day goes by that I don’t consider the sport and the potential range of outcomes for the upcoming season. I think about this 365 days so you don’t have to. I’m obsessed, so you get to enjoy your normal life. And I’m far from cursed in mine, to be fair.
Here, I’ll lay out my blueprint for 2025 fantasy football drafts — a compilation of my thoughts about the game after charting hundreds of wide receiver routes, watching endless film and running through my projections for all 32 teams. I’ll get some major assists along the way from the great folks I’m lucky to consider colleagues here at Yahoo. I’ll point you to great work to read or listen to later and, hopefully, challenge the way you think.
If you’re just now jumping back into football, welcome. If you’ve been keeping up with content all year, thank you for your support and for keeping the lights on. But the journey is just beginning for all of us. So let’s delay no further and unveil a blueprint to build your most successful season yet.
Good luck.
What makes a great fantasy football ecosystem?
If you know me, I am all about ecosystems. Fantasy football can be all about hammering players from the best ecosystems in the NFL. I always think back to the Peyton Manning Broncos teams, circa 2013. Sometimes winning your fantasy league is as simple as hoarding as many players from those kinds of special offenses.
It’s obvious that great ecosystems equate to some of the most potent and efficient offenses in the NFL. They’re surrounded by a quality line, loaded with good skill-position talent and stewarded by a high-end play-caller. But there’s more to it than that. It helps if you have concentrated target trees and clear backfield usage, but you shouldn’t just cross off teams that don’t fit the bill. Ambiguous situations can equal profit, too.
This year, I want to throw a new wrinkle at you; it’s time to get into the trenches, ditch the spreadsheets, put your hand in the dirt and care about offensive lines!
You want to draft good players on good offenses. Guess which teams scored the most points per game last season: the Lions, Bills, Ravens and Buccaneers. Yes, you’ll find great playmakers, top-level quarterbacks and play-calling gurus on that foursome, but the common thread is elite offensive line play.
So, if you’re breaking ties, consider the front five.
Let’s go through a quick grouping on some teams to consider when putting a premium on good offensive lines. We’ll have two groups.
Obviously, great lines
— The Eagles have been at the forefront of collecting linemen and have the best OL coach in the business in Jeff Stoutland. It’s the foundation of everything they do.
— The Buccaneers drafted and developed good players on the interior and return all five starters in 2025, once Tristan Wirfs is back from a knee injury. That’s something to watch.
— The Broncos offered some of the best pass protection in the league last year and were solid as run-blockers. This one might sneak up on folks.
— The Bills have had excellent continuity and health luck the last two years. They are especially devastating as gap run blockers.
Improving based on the offseason
— The Vikings put a premium on adding size to the interior by signing Ryan Kelly and Will Fries away from the Colts, and drafting Donovan Jackson. They want to add a power element to their run game and give J.J. McCarthy a veteran center to lean on. Love the moves.
— The Bears also executed a nice interior offensive line rebuild by adding Jonah Jackson, Joe Thuney and Drew Dalman to fit Ben Johnson’s outside zone scheme. Their guard-center-guard combination ruined so many of their pass game concepts last year. That won’t happen in 2025.
— The Titans paid for competency at left tackle in Dan Moore, switched JC Latham back to right tackle and added Kevin Zeitler as a rock-solid veteran guard. They have a chance to go from awful to average on the offensive line, which is significant.
— The Chiefs may have gotten a huge injury-based steal when Josh Simmons fell to them 31st overall. If he solidifies left tackle, which was a nightmare all last season, that will go a long way in getting the deep passing game back in action.
— The Jets have quietly been building in the trenches of late. Left tackle Olu Fashanu flashed excellent pass protection chops late in his rookie season last year and Armand Membou brings a nasty presence in the run game as a rookie right tackle.
Fast start vs. Hot finish
Whether analysts know it or want to admit it, best ball brain has seeped into all of our content. The popularity and fun of the format have made it hard to transition the way we talk about that game into traditional redraft leagues.
Straight up, there is a massive difference.
With everyone obsessed with taking down these massive best-ball contests, we’ve gotten overly obsessed with the end of the season. You’ll hear folks say, “Weeks 15, 16, 17 … the ones that matter most for fantasy football” when analyzing individual player or team outlooks. No one is denying that those weeks are huge even for managed teams. Those are the fantasy football playoffs and we all want to win those weeks to take the league championship.
Yet, what goes underdiscussed is that you have to get there in the first place for them to matter at all.
Back when I was oh so young and carefree, I was always so concerned with exposing myself to late-year upside. My brain was dialed in on the hot finish, never concerning myself with the beginning of the race. I’d figure it out somewhere along the way; August drafts were the concern, not the starting roster of “September me.”
No one has caused me to reevaluate that stance more than Scott Pianowski. He wrote about the benefits of starting fast and has pushed our Yahoo Fantasy Forecast listeners to draft to “win September.” I repeat it all the time now; he’s won the war on the hot start and drilled it into my brain.
Best of all? The numbers are on his side.
Looking back at the 2022 fantasy season on Yahoo, when Scott wrote the above piece, 87.1% of teams that started 5-0 made their fantasy playoffs. Among 4-1 starters, 71.8% of teams advanced. Once you got to 3-2, it could go either way; 50% of teams made the playoffs.
Most of those results were mirrored in 2023 but the advantage was even greater for the 5-0 squads in Yahoo public leagues. A whopping 90.9% of those teams made the playoffs. Almost 75% of 4-1 teams made it to the dance and just over half (50.6%) advanced.
It’s never been more apparent that life is just a lot easier if you’re riding hot coming into mid-October. You can start stacking your bench with late-season upside stashes like your favorite rookie receiver or a high-end backup running back when you don’t have to worry about chasing needs on waivers. You can get the best of both worlds with that hot start.
We all want to make it to the end of the season but you need to win early to clear the path. Just don’t get caught looking forward to the destination and forget to focus on simply merging onto the freeway.
How can we start our seasons on the right note? Avoid the allure of the delayed-gratification siren song of the suspended, replacement-level receiver or injury discount. Break ties in favor of players in proven situations with projectable volume. Thankfully, we also have the great Justin Boone in house now to help us with early-season strength of schedule projections. These aren’t everything and Boone would tell you that. However, again, it allows us to break ties.
We here at Yahoo Fantasy implore you to Win September. Once you do, everything will get easier as you march on toward the weeks that matter most.
Now, let's look ahead to the draft itself.
How to attack Round 1
Fantasy analysts spend most of the pre-draft process in the summer talking about breakouts and sleepers but we tend to never investigate the first-round picks. Yet, if your first-round selection flops, while your season isn’t over, it sure does start off behind the eight-ball. As such, I wanted to dedicate some space here to diving into the consensus top picks in Yahoo ADP and discussing any reservations I have with each player.
Yahoo ADP 1.01 - Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase
No hesitations here. Maybe Chase finishes as the WR4 or 5 after you drafted him first overall; that’s hardly a meaningful loss. The only way I see a significant flop is if Chase or Joe Burrow gets hurt. You can’t predict that.
Yahoo ADP 1.02 - Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
I personally have the next player ranked ahead of Barkley, but I’m still fine with him as a top-three pick. History is against Barkley after he logged an absurd amount of touches in 2024.
I suppose if Barkley slows down or misses time this season, you can’t be shocked. It’s just difficult to account for that in projections.
Yahoo ADP 1.03 - Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
He’s my RB1 in drafts this year. He was fantastic last year and has room for growth. The Falcons led the NFL by a wide margin in zone rushing rate (71%) per Fantasy Points Data, but ranked first in success rate on gap runs. The latter tends to produce more explosive plays, and Robinson needs to hit more home runs as the RB1 overall. A slight tweak in Year 2 of Zac Robinson could be just what we ordered.
Yahoo ADP 1.04 - Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
He’s in danger of the Lions offense regressing and the interior offensive line withering. Not to mention, David Montgomery is not going away. You need to just bet on an explosive player in a still-strong ecosystem who should only be ascending as the lead back. It’s a bet I am willing to make.
Yahoo ADP 1.05 - Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
I’m perfectly fine with Justin Jefferson as a Round 1 pick, as long as he returns to practice soon after dealing with a hamstring injury. However, I have the next guy ranked ahead of him due to my concerns about Minnesota’s passing volume while starting an inexperienced quarterback.
Yahoo ADP 1.06 - Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
Lamb has a proven, productive quarterback under center. The Cowboys have a questionable defense and running back corps. They could push to lead the NFL in pass attempts and the presence of George Pickens will open up the underneath game for Lamb to pile up efficient catches.
Yahoo ADP 1.07 - Ravens RB Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry is back to fight the good fight against Father Time. Even if he declines as an explosive rusher, he’s still a great bet for double-digit touchdowns as the lead back on one of the best offenses in football.
Yahoo ADP 1.08 - 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
The way this goes wrong for Christian McCaffrey is obvious: Injuries. However, the way it hits is just as clear. McCaffrey totaled 671.7 half PPR points from 2022 to 2023. The second-place finisher was Henry with 518.9. When he plays, CMC laps the field at running back.
Yahoo ADP 1.09 - Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Similar to Gibbs, there are some concerns about the environment with Frank Ragnow retiring and Ben Johnson moving on. However, St. Brown is a safe target for Jared Goff and keeps getting better every season. There might be some other wideouts I prefer as first-rounders but I’m not full-fading St. Brown.
Yahoo ADP 1.10 - Texans WR Nico Collins
Elite wide receiver in real life and no worse than the fifth-best player at the position.
Collins has a chance to lead the NFL in targets this season. He’s the clear alpha in a room with two rookies and Christian Kirk. Collins has been an outside and on-the-line-of-scrimmage player on over 80% of his snaps in each of the last two seasons. He could be even more efficient if he moves around to other positions in Nick Caley’s offense, which comes over from the Rams' tree.
Yahoo ADP 1.11 - Rams WR Puka Nacua
It’s simple: if Matthew Stafford is healthy and on the field, Nacua should be a first-round pick and form a dangerous tandem with Davante Adams. As it stands now, with Stafford’s back injury holding him out of the joint practices the Rams value so much, I can’t greenlight Nacua as a Round 1 selection.
Yahoo ADP 1.12 - Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty
There are holes in Jeanty’s profile, considering the Raiders' offensive line is a mid-unit at best, they have a poor secondary that will push them into pass-heavy scripts and they just aren’t likely to crack the top-20 in points scored. However, we’ve seen one of the biggest running back busts get by on volume and goal-line work, which Jeanty should get plenty of and make it work in fantasy.
Jeanty will be much better than this. Please collect yourself and let's move on. It’s just worth considering the negatives.
Other names you should consider
At present, Drake London is my 10th-ranked player and Malik Nabers my 11th. Both are right up there with Nico Collins as some of my non-obvious favorites to lead the league in targets. Nabers joins guys like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and A.J. Brown to see at least 30% of their team's targets in a year over the last three seasons. For all of Russell Wilson’s flaws, he will deliver more catchable deep targets to Nabers.
London saw a whopping 39.8% of the targets in the three games Michael Penix Jr. started last season. Penix unlocks the deep area of the field for London and the receiver’s new role in Robinson’s offense provides layups over the middle of the field as a slot-heavy and motion target.
De’Von Achane is a favorite of the fantasy community. The case goes something like this: In 2023 he got it done on freaky rushing efficiency (7.8 yards per carry) and in 2024 he got it done on high-end receiving usage, as he turned 87 targets into 399 yards, most among running backs.
What if both happen in 2025?
While I think it’s also possible neither happens — because I’m skeptical of Miami’s run game and overall offensive trajectory — I can’t see them going too far away from the receiving usage. Thus, he looks like a great high-floor bet in the early second round.
Brian Thomas Jr. is another high-end wideout that Scott Pianowski has as his 11th overall player. Hard to argue.
Thomas posted an 80.8% success rate vs. press coverage (93rd percentile) in Reception Perception as a rookie. Here are the other Year 1 players to clear the 90th percentile in RP history (2014 to present): CeeDee Lamb in 2020, Michael Thomas in 2016, Tyreek Hill in 2016, Garrett Wilson in 2022, Justin Jefferson in 2020, Ja’Marr Chase in 2021, Ladd McConkey in 2024 and Odell Beckham in 2014.
You want to make a first-round bet on that type of player? You won’t get a fight from me.
How to handle rebound players
One of the biggest mistakes fantasy football players make is that they’re too quick to write off possible rebound seasons. “That guy burned me and I’ll never take him again” is an emotional response and leads to missed opportunities.
If the circumstances are different, we should be willing to imagine new results. Players are not numbers on a spreadsheet and the NFL is an ever-changing league. In a small sample size game like football, where the landscape changes, it’s borderline insane to write these types of post-hype sleeper cases off.
I wrote up eight disappointing picks from 2024 who need a reboot this season. I’m not drafting all of them, but I’m not closed off to them, either. Diving into those cases at least provides us with a path for how to attack possible rebounds.
The quick and easy rule that I tend to follow is this: If a player is in their prime years, not coming back from a significant injury and a proven good talent — aka, look at something beyond the fantasy points — you should almost never put that guy on your “Do not draft” list.
Fortune favors the open-minded.
How to view injuries
Another Scott Pianowski gem that’s become a hard and fast truth for me as I’ve gotten older: “Injuries will find your fantasy team during the season, you don’t have to go looking for them in the draft.”
It’s always tempting to look at a name you know and a player who, at their best, can outproduce many of the names close to them on the draft board. You want to stick them on your bench, wait it out and imagine a powerhouse starting lineup when they’re back in some far-off, distant Week 6 fantasy world. You think you’re getting a discount but, because you have absolutely no idea when that “at their best” will arrive, oftentimes, you’re just catching the falling knife.
There are several examples this year, most notably Joe Mixon at running back, plus Brandon Aiyuk and Chris Godwin at wide receiver.
If you’re using my rankings, you won’t be taking any of those three currently recovering players with dubious return-to-play timelines. That’s by design. And trust me, Aiyuk and Godwin have been two of my favorite wideouts in my time charting receivers for Reception Perception, both going down as big breakout hits. However, the facts outweigh the emotions here. We don’t know when they’ll return and even more so, we have no idea what type of role or ability they’ll demonstrate upon said return.
When Aiyuk is healthy and locked in, he’s a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL. RP shows him to be an elite separator and he ranks ninth in first downs per route run from 2023 to 2024. However, I don’t want to project him to be that guy the moment he steps on the field, which makes him someone I can’t click at ADP. I hate it but here we are. Maybe next year is acceptable for these types of players.
High-level QB elevator pitch
A once-hardened Late Round Quarterback-only drafter, I find myself, for the third year in a row, extremely interested in taking one of the elite quarterbacks this year. That’s especially true now that Jayden Daniels has made it a tier of three guys with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
Right now, those three quarterbacks fall between the 21st and 29th picks in Yahoo ADP. There are some appealing wide receivers and running backs in that range, but the combination of weekly floor and ceiling with those passers is unmatched. They all have a chance to finish at the top of the league in passing efficiency and lead the position in rushing yards. That’s just a tough combination to beat. If any of them fall to Round 3, forget about it; I’ll take them every time over the Tee Higgins, James Cook, Breece Hall or Tyreek Hill group of FLEX-elligible players.
If I miss out on those guys, Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts go a bit later and aren’t bad consolation prizes at all. Once those five are off the board, you can engage in a serious waiting game.
QB6 to QB17 in my rankings feels extremely flat to me this year. You can make a case for top-12 production with the right breaks for every single one of those players. That means I’m not often diving into the Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield or Bo Nix waters (ADP between 50 and 70 overall).
Justin Fields as the ninth or 10th quarterback off the board in the 80s is where my interest in filling the QB1 spot rekindles.
Fields isn’t without risk of poor passing production but he is a top-two quarterback in scramble yards since he entered the league. Rushing production remains the key to cheap and cheat-code fantasy quarterbacks. Elsewhere in this tier, Brock Purdy is a solid answer after taking big steps as a dropback passer and scrambler in 2024. Kyler Murray is a frustrating player but it appears Yahoo drafters have penalized him enough with a 98th overall ADP. Pocket passers like Jared Goff, Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott should be at the helm of productive offenses with strong pass-catching options.
Even deep into the 120s, you’ll find good fantasy quarterback answers, including one of “my guys” who we’ll get to in short order. This position is extremely deep for streamers and those hunting QB2 options in SuperFlex.
High-level RB elevator pitch
Justin Boone and I have talked about this on The Yahoo Fantasy Forecast of late, but this does not feel like an optimal year to punt on running backs, or even go with a Hero-RB build early in drafts.
All of my top-seven running backs are bona fide first-round players, with the top tier of three — Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs — being worthy of top-five selections. There are wide receivers I like ahead of some names inside that top-seven but if you walked away with a back over the wideout, I wouldn’t fight you.
The most controversial decision for managers to make early in the draft will be what to do with Christian McCaffrey. I’m sympathetic to anyone who just doesn’t want to go down that road again with a 29-year-old back coming off a frustrating year of injuries. At the same time, no player has more upside than McCaffrey in fantasy football, given his rushing efficiency and target ceiling.
Even with super conservative outputs in my projections, he comes out to RB3. With some level of trepidation, I’ve docked him to RB4 and my second tier at the position but he’s still a top-12 overall player, for me. I’m going to play my leagues to win and therefore will be willing to take the risk in the late first round, as long as the health reports remain clean through training camp.
Once we get outside of that group of top-seven backs, the third tier of backs is still quite plentiful with workhorses who will run away with the lead role in their backfields. One of those guys you aren’t used to seeing this high is Chase Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals, my RB11 this year. From Week 10 on, Brown handled 74.3% of the Bengals’ rush attempts (trailing only Jonathan Taylor) and was targeted 39 times (trailing only De’Von Achane). The Bengals didn’t add any significant challengers to Brown’s spot atop the depth chart, so he has room to regress on his 2024 usage and still pay off as a top-12 back. You’re getting a productive workhorse back on one of the best offenses in the NFL. He’s a great third-round selection. I’d have slotted him in the “My Guys” section this year if I didn’t already do it last year.
Names like Kenneth Walker III, Chuba Hubbard and long-time veterans like Alvin Kamara and James Conner make up the fourth tier. This is still a decent area to take backs with Walker and Hubbard at the top of my board. Walker should benefit from a change to the outside zone system under Klint Kubiak, while Hubbard is already established as a strong RB1 behind a good offensive line.
After that tier, the running back landscape does take a nosedive in terms of role certainty. That’s why I want to make sure I take two before the end of Round 4 or 5 at the latest. There are some intriguing names, most notably the rookies, and potential veteran discounts like Tony Pollard and Isiah Pacheco. Still, I want those guys as lottery ticket RB3 or FLEX options, not my second runner. Running back also rather neatly falls off right when the wide receiver board begins to look tantalizing around pick 55 to 60 in Yahoo ADP.
High-level WR elevator pitch
We remain in a golden age for wide receiver play in the NFL. I can go all the way down to the 40s in my “real-life” wide receiver rankings before I land on a player who I think has legitimate question marks about whether they can be a bona fide starting wide receiver and a top-two option on a team. It’s just one example, but my ranking of the top-15 wide receivers 25 and under helps show why this position gets better every year. The 2024 NFL Draft made it even stronger as several high-end talents entered the league and immediately established themselves as stars. If other guys continue to ascend and veterans don’t age out, we’re cooking. That’s why I think wide receiver is exceptionally deep with massive fourth and fifth tiers worth hammering in the mid to late rounds.
Starting at the top of the NFL Draft, it’s those 2024 rookies that made this position undeniably better at the top, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. at picks 14 and 16 in Yahoo ADP, respectively. I’m multiple spots ahead of ADP on Nabers (11th overall) and more than fine with where Thomas goes in the early second round. Without them, the wide receivers picks in the late first to mid-second would have been Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London and A.J. Brown. Now, you add these two young, ascending alphas and we’re talking about an embarrassment of riches at the Round 1 to 2 turn. Oh, and don’t you dare forget about fellow 2024 rookie Ladd McConkey at 23rd overall, who was just as efficient a producer as Thomas and Nabers and for me, was the best on film in Year 1.
The players listed above wrap up the first two tiers in my wide receiver rankings. There’s a fine group of players in my third tier, which includes Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr. and veterans like Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill. While I don’t dislike this tier, which falls anywhere between picks 30 and 45, I just often find myself taking the running backs in this range. That’s especially true because I don’t see a steep drop to the next grouping at the wide receiver position.
To me, you can find plenty of usable wide receiver weeks in the fifth to eighth round range this year. We’re talking about established players still in their prime like Jaylen Waddle, Zay Flowers, DeVonta Smith and Jameson Williams. Those guys might not have the ceilings to be WR1s in fantasy but they are excellent picks at ADP.
Even better, this area of the NFL Draft contains veteran receivers who are viewed as boring by the community but have not aged out at all. Calvin Ridley played extremely well in Tennessee and battled for 1,000 yards in a broken passing game, with the second-best success rate vs. press of his career in Reception Perception. Stefon Diggs has made a miraculous recovery from a torn ACL in time to be on the field for training camp and is not someone I’d bet against, given how hard he works. He was still beating man coverage at a rate north of 70% in RP with the Texans last year. The ever-steady Jakobi Meyers is being massively disrespected at his ADP (113th overall) and could outkick several guys in the tier above him with Geno Smith under center. The fact that these guys aren’t fully aging out yet is what makes this position so strong.
We also know that rookie wide receivers have been massive hits in recent years as value picks. We have two going in this range in Travis Hunter at 72nd overall and Tetairoa McMillan at 84th. McMillan should be the Day 1 starting X-receiver for Bryce Young and fits the downfield, horizontal route-based offense Dave Canales prefers. As for Hunter, head coach Liam Coen says he’s looking to play him on the offensive side 80% of the snaps while also attempting to play on defense. Hunter’s weekly projections might be tough as he pushes to do something that’s never been done before, but scared money don’t make no money. And Hunter is a special wide receiver prospect who should be fed in Coen’s electric screen game.
Lastly, there’s a crop of receivers later in drafts who go outside the top 85 picks who are hyper-talented but just need the right breaks to go their way.
Chris Olave is an example in New Orleans, as he looks like a big-time breakthrough player if concussions don’t rear their head again. Olave is 10th in first downs per route run among WRs with 500+ routes since he entered the league in 2022, surrounded by a bunch of guys we all agree are great players. He's also 11th in yards per route, 13th in targets per route, seventh in successful targets per route. There's another level for him to reach if all the conditions are right. His teammate Rashid Shaheed is also an electric talent who wins at all three levels. Both should see much improved deployment in Kellen Moore’s offense but the quarterback play is a major question. I will bet on the talent deep in drafts on both.
Josh Downs in Indianapolis is another player with elite efficiency metrics who grades out like a superstar in Reception Perception.
Downs won’t be a consistent producer unless Anthony Richardson Sr. makes a massive jump but I know he’s a fantastic player I’ll happily take as my WR4.
A long-time favorite of mine, Rashod Bateman, has the talent of a strong starting NFL receiver and offered enough spike weeks to finish as WR35. He now goes outside the top 50 as no one wants to bet on any stability in that production, much less potential for growth.
Even outside the drafted players in the Yahoo pool is Browns WR2 Cedric Tillman. I’m not looking for new and creative ways to invest in the 2025 Cleveland Browns offense but if I’m taking one, it’ll be Tillman in the final rounds, not up in the top 100 with his teammates like Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku. Tillman showed he can play X-receiver last year and will be on the field for almost all the snaps. People have completely forgotten he was right in line with Jeudy’s production before he was lost for the season with a concussion.
These types of misunderstood wide receivers, where folks don’t understand how good they are in isolation, can be major profit points if the conditions ever turn their way. It might never happen but it doesn’t cost you much in drafts to simply find out and if it works, they can make your team. Don’t worry, I have some more candidates in the “My Guys” section.
High-level TE elevator pitch
Every year we do the “tight end is deep in fantasy” dance but that’s just never really the case. What the fantasy community has struggled to grasp — and it’s what causes this position to get overvalued — is that, from a conceptual standpoint, the vast majority of NFL offenses do not want to funnel targets to the tight end position. They’re very rarely the first read in concepts and even most secondary perimeter or slot receivers are going to draw the quarterback’s eyes before the tight end.
That’s why, to find real solutions at the position, you need to find legitimate unicorn talents or tight ends who are going to get boosted up the target pecking order based on the situation and surrounding players. As Justin Boone and I have discussed on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, unless the tight end you’re chasing has a chance to be a top-two target-earner on his team, you’re going to have to count on outlier efficiency and touchdowns to get home.
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Luckily, we have a clear top three at the tight end position who should be able to easily get into the top two on their teams in terms of target share.
Brock Bowers drew 153 targets as a mere rookie and he’s going TE1 and 20th overall in Yahoo drafts. There is an ever-so-small part of me that wonders if he will see a downtick in overall volume now that the team has added some young receivers in the NFL Draft, like Jack Bech and Dont’e Thorton, and are unlikely to repeat as the third-most pass-heavy offense (64.3%) with a better coaching staff. However, that’s not enough for me to call Bowers a fade at ADP.
Trey McBride ranked 10th in the NFL with a 33.6% share of the first read targets in Arizona, per Fantasy Points Data. That’s 10th among all best catchers, not just tight end, where he’s the clear runaway No. 1 in the metric. Even if Marvin Harrison Jr. takes a step forward, McBride still projects for the type of volume he needs to justify an early third-round ADP.
In my view, George Kittle should be the third man of this first tier, and Yahoo drafters seem to agree, as his 33rd overall ADP isn’t too far from McBride's. Kittle’s 2.65 yards per route last season led all tight ends by a significant gap, with McBride at 2.15 and Bowers at 2.02. He’s less likely to see the same number of raw targets as those two but is an elite efficiency player and has a chance to push north of 115 given the state of the wide receiver room. No Deebo Samuel Sr. or Brandon Aiyuk at the start of the season should allow you to bump Kittle up the projections.
If you made me choose between going elite quarterback vs. elite tight end, I’d probably choose the ceiling/floor combination of the former. However, what gives me pause is that I’m really not interested in the next tier of tight ends going between 48th and 90th overall, except for two possible exceptions that fit our “top two targeted players on the team” rule.
T.J. Hockenson will start the season as the second target in Minnesota behind Justin Jefferson now that Jordan Addison is suspended for three weeks. The Vikings get matchups vs. the Falcons and Bengals; not a bad way to start off with your TE1 in fantasy. Addison likely usurps the role for Hockenson upon his return, as he out-targeted Hockenson, 71 to 58, from Week 10 on last year. However, this offense will focus on shorter, high-percentage passes. Hockenson is much more the safety blanket of this passing game.
Evan Engram is a tempting pick right around the 90th overall range in ADP. Engram is a proven target-earner on a depth chart with few proven secondary receivers. Last year, Cortland Sutton ran a route on 90.5% of the Broncos’ dropbacks but no one else cleared 50%. If he stays healthy, Engram is a lock to beat that route participation.
Since I don’t dabble much in either of these tiers, mostly because I like players at other positions, I usually end up taking my tight end into the 100s. You’ll find the two guys I end up with most as my deeper TE1 play in “My Guys” below, but one guy I’ve been sprinkling in a bit is Dalton Kincaid. Boone made a compelling argument for him as a rebound pick and Kincaid goes way later than last year.
Three ultra-deep names: If Cam Ward is good, Chig Okonkwo can present sneaky value after a strong finish to 2024, Brenton Strange should be the TE1 in Jacksonville and I’m really intrigued by Theo Johnson, who could be the second target for Russell Wilson in New York and isn’t being drafted in Yahoo leagues. The 6-foot-6, 259-pound Johnson posted a 91st percentile 40-yard dash, 96th percentile vertical jump and 93rd percentile broad jump at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. Closing your eyes and taking athletes has been a profitable strategy at this position in the past.
Rookies to know at each position
Quarterback
The Titans picked first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft and wasted no time in selecting Cam Ward to be their franchise quarterback. The Titans ranked 26th in points per game and 30th in EPA per play last year thanks to a hopeless quarterback room. While Ward himself is unlikely to bring a ton of fantasy appeal on his own, he’s an aggressive downfield thrower with great touch over the middle. Ward should bring life back into the Titans' passing game. If he’s even acceptable, Calvin Ridley will be a steal at his ADP, Tony Pollard will be viable as an RB2 and we could get some deep flier appeal with other areas of the pass-catching group.
Ward is the only quarterback locked into a Day 1 starting job. In New York, the Giants are hoping to sit Jaxson Dart behind Russell Wilson all season. Wilson’s erratic play and a brutal early-season schedule may make that difficult. Down in New Orleans, the soon-to-be-26-year-old Tyler Shough is competing against Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener for the QB gig. The fact that he hasn’t already sealed up that gig is troubling.
Running back
Ashton Jeanty was a Round 1 pick in the NFL Draft, and that’s what he’ll be in fantasy drafts. He carries an 11th overall ADP in Yahoo leagues. Jeanty was a great prospect who walks right into a featured back role for Chip Kelly, whose offenses ranked fourth, seventh, 11th and fifth in rush attempts during his time as an NFL playcaller.
Omarion Hampton is an explosive rusher taken in Round 1 by the Chargers. Los Angeles’ ground game withered over the year and they’re hoping his presence helps turn things around. With Najee Harris coming back slowly from a July 4, firework-related eye injury, Hampton has been a summer riser. He’s my RB13.
RJ Harvey joined a Broncos team that has a great ecosystem set up for its running backs. Denver ranked 10th in yards before contact per carry on running back runs in 2024 but 28th in yards after contact per carry. Sean Payton remains a great offensive designer and this offensive line rules. Harvey will split work with JK Dobbins but is a ceiling pick in the mid rounds.
TreVeyon Henderson is an exciting rusher who should be an added explosive weapon as a receiver out of the backfield. He doesn’t profile as a full-time bellcow but if he becomes a high-volume pass-catcher, he can get into the flex consideration.
Kaleb Johnson is a good system fit in Arthur Smith’s zone-heavy running game. The Steelers ranked second in zone scheme rushing rate in 2024, per Fantasy Points Data, and that’s exactly what Johnson did in college. He does have to contend with Jaylen Warren for touches on what might be an average NFL offense in terms of points scored. I think you hedge your bets on him as a high-end RB3.
Three Day 3 backs to remember: Cam Skattebo has a chance to be the bruiser in a split backfield for the Giants, Jaydon Blue could be a passing-game option on a light Cowboys running back depth chart and Woody Marks has sleeper appeal with Joe Mixon banged up in Houston. While Skattebo has the cleanest path to a starting job, I’ve drafted Blue at his 128th overall ADP more than the rest of this crew.
Wide receiver
I wrote up the risk vs. reward proposition for each Round 1 rookie wide receiver after the NFL Draft in April. That gives a good range of outcomes for each of those players. I’m in on drafting all four of Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden at ADP this year, with a particular lean toward one we will cover in the “My Guy” section.
As for Day 2 wide receivers, there are a ton of players who could figure in over the course of the NFL season, but be prepared to exercise some patience. Let’s hit a few critical names to know.
Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both played at Iowa State and were drafted by the Texans on Day 2. They’re more waiver wire speed-dial candidates or late-round dart throws in redraft. Higgins should be the other outside receiver as the flanker across from Nico Collins, who can also be a jumbo slot. Noel is one of my favorite dynasty bets who would get playing time if Christian Kirk got hurt.
Luther Burden III is a slot-first prospect for the Bears and can play as a flanker in two-receiver sets. If DJ Moore doesn’t bounce back smoothly from a rough 2024 campaign, Burden has an extremely similar skill set.
Tre Harris should be the long-term X-receiver option for the Los Angeles Chargers. They badly need to replace Quentin Johnston in that spot, as he can’t consistently beat press or win down the field. Harris is someone to watch for early playing time but don’t ignore Day 3 splashy deep threat, KeAndre Lampbert-Smith, whom I think is a legitimate talent, not just a training camp hype bunny.
Jack Bech was one of my favorite receiver prospects in the draft. He may be a 2026 bet, as Jakobi Meyers profiles as the lead receiver and wins as a slot/flanker hybrid, which is Bech’s best pro projection. However, he could get playing time late in the year. The Raiders also drafted Dont’e Thorton with the sixth pick in the fourth round and he’s running with the starters in camp because he brings perimeter size, speed and X-receiver route chops that no one else has. He’s a deep name to watch.
Kyle Williams is a smaller receiver but was a YAC demon and ball-winner down the field. He posted an 82nd percentile success rate vs. press in Reception Perception, so he can win outside. He may not be a Day 1 starter but this is a light receiver depth chart that he could climb as time goes on.
Isaac TeSlaa, Pat Bryant and Tai Felton were the other receivers drafted on Day 2. I’m interested in TeSlaa in dynasty but Bryant would be the only one who has a climbable depth chart in Year 1. He could open the season behind DeVaughn Vele as the big slot but has the route tree and run-after-catch skills to complement Courtland Sutton in the long term.
One Day 3 sleeper for the road: Tory Horton is not a normal fifth-round pick. He only fell that far due to a 2024 knee injury. When healthy, he’s shown himself to be a strong separator from the outside, someone who can win vertically and snare passes in tight coverage.
He stands out in a wide receiver room led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only pure vertical receiver that blocks his path.
Tight end
Colston Loveland was drafted 10th overall by the Bears, a big statement as the first selection in the Ben Johnson era. Loveland can line up in the slot, out wide or as an in-line tight end. He was underrated as a blocker, as well. There’s so much you can do with Loveland. He will be a top-12 tight end in my rankings.
Tyler Warren was the other Round 1 tight end selection, going 14th overall to the Indianapolis Colts. He was a multi-alignment weapon in college and projects as a moveable chess piece who can thrive in the short area in the pros. The Colts have a crowded target tree with two good starting receivers in Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. to go along with some interesting role players. The offense is run-heavy and unstable at quarterback. That makes Warren a tough sell for me in fantasy.
Terrance Ferguson is a name you should know among the Day 2 crop, which also contains possible sleepers like Elijah Arroyo and Mason Taylor. Ferguson has the type of athletic traits and size we want in move tight ends who compile a ton of targets. The Rams offense wants to use more 12 personnel, which would get Ferguson on the field early.
“My Guys”
As always, I’m not going to waste your time in this section. You don’t need me to tell you why a consensus first- or second-round fantasy pick is “my guy.” If you read this whole piece or consumed all my content during this offseason, you know which early-round players I like.
So, I will go out on a bit more of a limb for you. As such, some of these picks are going to miss. I don’t care; I’m not doing this to victory lap all over social media this season. I’m just offering up some options for you to target that may exceed expectations in the mid-to-late rounds.
I’ll give you some options at other positions before cracking open the Reception Perception notebook.
Non-WR Division
At quarterback, I mentioned the mystery man that I have ranked as a top-12 option who goes deep in the 100s and that’s Drake Maye.
The Patriots made additions on the offensive line that should get both of their rushing and pass-catching group to at least “acceptable,” if not just "not the worst in the league," as their 2024 counterparts can claim. I’m high on the possible ceiling of the receiver room because I believe Stefon Diggs has more left than most. However, most important to Maye’s fantasy appeal is that he’s a credible rusher. He was second in the NFL with 407 scramble yards last season, per TruMedia, and he didn’t even start the full season. Expect Maye to take more designed carries, as he had almost none as a rookie, with Josh McDaniels in town. Remember, he had that one wildly successful QB-based run game with Cam Newton in a strange 2020 fever dream campaign. Maye is my favorite late-round quarterback who has a high ceiling as a vertical passer and presents a rushing floor.
I worry how much longer I can credibly keep Omarion Hampton in this section. For now, he’s still going outside the top three rounds but I have him as my RB13. With Najee Harris missing so much time in practice after his eye injury, this should be Hampton’s job to lose, and we won’t have to worry about veteran deference early in the season. He’s a home-run hitter with passing game chops on an offense that was top 12 in points per game last year and got better in the offseason.
Jordan Mason has been labeled the 1B back to Aaron Jones Sr. this offseason. He averaged a whopping 5.65 yards per carry on gap runs in 2024, per Fantasy Points Data, and it’s clear that the Vikings want to add more of those runs based on the hefty offensive line additions. Mason could be a goal-line option with massive contingency upside if Jones missed games.
At tight end, the two guys I often grab when waiting are NFC North mavens, Colston Loveland and Tucker Kraft. Loveland is an elite talent at tight end who can operate in line and in the slot. He will be a red-zone threat and is already starting for this team. Kraft is just a baller — excuse the basic analysis. He averaged over 10 yards after catch per reception last year and led the team in touchdowns. I want to bet on that upward trajectory as a sleeper top-12 tight end in an offense I expect to score plenty of points.
Wide receiver
I admittedly hit this position hard throughout the article; what did you expect? But I’ll still give you four more names here.
Ricky Pearsall came back from offseason injuries and being shot in the chest to just get on the field. You could see when watching him, he was ticketed for a singular role in the 49ers offense.
In the final four games of last season, Pearsall was smoking man coverage from various alignments. He was a prospect I loved, put up good film late in his rookie year and plays for one of the best offensive minds in the sport. That’s a fantastic breakout bet in the 40s at wide receiver.
Rome Odunze was an elite wide receiver prospect who won at all three levels. You can throw out any per-route metric from the cursed 2024 Bears offense. In isolation, Odunze played solid football, particularly against man and press coverage. He will be deployed as the Bears' X-receiver in a role that makes much more sense than what we saw in 2024. His 2025 breakout case reminds me so much of last year’s for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Don’t overrate a slow rookie season with per-route metrics overly hurt by playing behind two established veterans.
Jayden Reed is a good football player. Even if he’s pigeon-holed in two-wide receiver sets, he has game-breaking ability and is a much better full-field wideout than credited. He’s cleared 70% success rate vs. man coverage in three straight years (prospect profile included in Reception Perception) so don’t tell me he’s a gadget or slot-only player. Reed ranks 14th in yards per route run the last two seasons combined. Any changes in his usage, and he will explode in fantasy; the talent is there. The industry has over-indexed on how run-heavy and volatile they were in the receiver room last year.
For that same reason, I also love taking Matthew Golden as the lid-lifting Packers receiver ahead of his ADP. I’ll rank Reed first in the room and he’s more “My Guy” but Golden is in the same tier. You can take both and, frankly, with the inclusion of Reed and Kraft in this section, alongside the passing mention of their first-round rookie, you should be able to tell I’m quite high on this Packers offense. Take your shots.
Last but not least, Emeka Egbuka is in line for a fantastic rookie season. On the night of the NFL Draft, it looked like Egbuka would go the way of Odunze, as a rookie stuck behind two veteran receivers. Now that it appears Chris Godwin is looking at a slow ramp-up, Egbuka might begin the season as a starter. Egbuka can win from the slot or flanker position and was the best zone-beating receiver in the class. He has drawn consistent praise from Bucs camp, especially from Baker Mayfield. He runs the out-breaking routes that Mayfield loves to throw so well.
He’s a pro-ready player who fits an offense that was top-five in every relevant metric last year. I’ll happily take him anytime the room lets him fall past WR40.
One player I won’t leave a draft without
George Pickens took a big step forward last year as an individual player with a career-best 72.8% success rate vs. man coverage and 77.6% success rate vs. press (83rd percentile) in Reception Perception.
He wasn’t consistently locked in throughout the full season but there’s every reason to think that will change in Dallas in the most healthy offensive environment he’s played in as a pro, and as he fights for a new contract. There’s yet another level for him to reach as a player and he already ranks 17th among wide receivers in yards per route run over the last two years combined. Now, he should see both his routes, targets and catchable looks increase playing with Dak Prescott in a pass-happy offense.
As long as Pickens is locked in, he could have a 2024 Tee Higgins-like season; one of the most productive No. 2 receivers in the league across from a versatile alpha wideout. That’s the sort of touchdown ceiling that can launch a guy into the top-10 at the position even if he doesn’t become a target hog.
I’ve been mixed on Pickens in fantasy and real life in the past. Last season’s improvement was what I needed to see on an individual player basis and this situation is perfect as he steps into the vacant X-receiver role in Dallas. I’m dangerously high on Pickens and this entire Cowboys passing game in fantasy.
Pickens is the most mispriced player in fantasy football right now. He’s ranked outside the top-30 receivers in consensus rankings and I have him a full 12 spots ahead. Now, it’s your turn to wish me luck.
Good luck in your 2025 drafts!
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